ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

So far, recon is finding winds closer to 40 kts than 50 kts. Pressure up, organization down. May be a 40-45 kt TS at landfall. As such, rain will be the primary issue. Model consensus has trended to the east side of Matagorda Bay. Those of you in Corpus Christi may not even know when it passes, as there won't likely be much SW of the track. I'm still hoping for a few inches of rain here in Houston. Latest GFS has about 2" in south Houston, less to my north. It has lots of dry air surrounding Beta after landfall. UKMET is wetter.

[mpic]

Just woke up expecting rain bands already. Temps in the mid 60s and sunny.

In reference to Frank's comment about needing to educate about storms, the news putlets down here have done a less than stellar job. That's all I'll say since this isn't the place to expound.

[catskillfire51]

So far, recon is finding winds closer to 40 kts than 50 kts. Pressure up, organization down. May be a 40-45 kt TS at landfall. As such, rain will be the primary issue. Model consensus has trended to the east side of Matagorda Bay. Those of you in Corpus Christi may not even know when it passes, as there won't likely be much SW of the track. I'm still hoping for a few inches of rain here in Houston. Latest GFS has about 2" in south Houston, less to my north. It has lots of dry air surrounding Beta after landfall. UKMET is wetter.

http://wxman57.com/images/BetaRain.JPG

Unfortunately right about where that 10.8 is in Brazoria County, is where I live. Which isn't unbearable but depending how fast it comes will test the drainage systems in town.

[catskillfire51]

From when I went to bed this morning at about 1am to now, Beta is looking better though. I was thinking I'd be waking up to an open wave.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm no expert, still cautious with this storm though. It's building, dry air is still west of it but is decreasing. Still looking at 36 hours over the GoM. Until dry air gets wrapped into the storm, i'll still have my worry hat on.

[mpic]

I'm no expert, still cautious with this storm though. It's building, dry air is still west of it but is decreasing. Still looking at 36 hours over the GoM. Until dry air gets wrapped into the storm, i'll still have my worry hat on.

Too bad it can't just come straight on in and leave our neighbors to the east out of it.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm no expert, still cautious with this storm though. It's building, dry air is still west of it but is decreasing. Still looking at 36 hours over the GoM. Until dry air gets wrapped into the storm, i'll still have my worry hat on.

It's looking increasingly likely that Beta will move inland into the middle TX coast in about 24 hours as a moderate tropical storm. I'm not too worried about it here in Houston.

[catskillfire51]

Recon found much higher winds in the Northwest side

[Nederlander]

Beta certainly looks healthier than I expected this morning. Dry air still abundant, but shear looks to have lessened somewhat for the time being. We already have an outer band moving through the Golden Triangle this morning giving us some good rain. I think the NHC is spot on with intensity being kept in check through landfall. As stated before by many, primary concern will be training bands as Beta moves so slow. Hopefully everyone gets some rain and nobody gets a lot of it.

[hurricanehunter69]

Beta's visible satellite appearance looks way better this morning than what I expected. Looks decent on mimic too. If their was ever a case when a storm defied logic, shear, and dry air...it would be a case like this one. We've seen it happen many times before.Especially in 2005 and the now historic 2020. I would be considerably more concerned with this storm today than I was last night, especially if I lived in a voluntary evac zone.

[wxman57]

Recon found much higher winds in the Northwest side

Wind shift from SE to NE there makes it look like the center may be reforming up there near 27.9N / 93.6W.

[catskillfire51]

Recon found much higher winds in the Northwest side

Wind shift from SE to NE there makes it look like the center may be reforming up there near 27.9N / 93.6W.

That'd be quite the shift wouldn't it?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm no expert, still cautious with this storm though. It's building, dry air is still west of it but is decreasing. Still looking at 36 hours over the GoM. Until dry air gets wrapped into the storm, i'll still have my worry hat on.

It's looking increasingly likely that Beta will move inland into the middle TX coast in about 24 hours as a moderate tropical storm. I'm not too worried about it here in Houston.

Main concern is rainfall for me. I personally am great here, but this city has not learned its lesson after Harvey. Something half of what harvey was will still cause an absolute disaster here. With that said, GFS and other models are not the best with intensity.

Western side has stronger winds due to the pressure gradient from the high pressure/cold front. Wonderful September morning here in Houston with this breeze. Going for a jog now to enjoy it!

[JabNOLA]

Based on ground truth and nearby bouys NOLA is about the be slapped by Beta. Sustained winds of 40 with gusts over 50 in this incoming band. Get the batteries and generators ready. Check out Shell Beach and Lake Front readings. Also noted the 10 inch rain totals with the models.

[dantonlsu]

Water is already quite high in Galveston. Imagine we will be getting some rain from this here in Seabrook to say the least.

[wx98]

Based on ground truth and nearby bouys NOLA is about the be slapped by Beta. Sustained winds of 40 with gusts over 50 in this incoming band. Get the batteries and generators ready. Check out Shell Beach and Lake Front readings. Also noted the 10 inch rain totals with the models.

This is another of those “two blob” systems. You have the main blob and then usually an eastern or northern blob which is completely detached. This blob is to the east and is affecting SE LA.

[bohai]

Is Beta a male or female or gender neutral storm?

[Steve]

Based on ground truth and nearby bouys NOLA is about the be slapped by Beta. Sustained winds of 40 with gusts over 50 in this incoming band. Get the batteries and generators ready. Check out Shell Beach and Lake Front readings. Also noted the 10 inch rain totals with the models.

Cold and damp and drizzly at the moment.

[Steve]

Is Beta a male or female or gender neutral storm?

Binary.

[jaguars_22]

GFS is showing the center sitting on Victoria . What you think guys will I see any rough weather