ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[xironman]

So is there not any more recon scheduled?

I saw 6 pm est tonight.

TROPICAL STORM BETA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73
A. 20/2330Z,21/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0722A BETA
C. 20/2200Z
D. 27.5N 94.7W
E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Stormcenter]

Is Beta moving southward?

[jaguars_22]

Looks like beta is moving southward no models showed this? Does anyone think this could be a hurricane?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Looks like beta is moving southward no models showed this? Does anyone think this could be a hurricane?

Yes sir.

['CaneFreak]

I personally don't think it is moving southward. It does look like it is trying to reorganize and re-stack though and it might be trying to restack and reform farther south and west where there is a better environment perhaps. Time will tell. Not a hurricane yet but you can never count these small systems out because the models don't handle these situations that well as we have seen all season.

[tiger_deF]

The irony is while it's actual CDO is small, the area of tropical storm force winds is already onshore in several areas according to the NHC. I'd bet that all the dry air is making Beta seem smaller than (she? he?) is.

[gqhebert]

Is Beta moving southward?

CDO is building southward...not a south motion

[xironman]

The irony is while it's actual CDO is small, the area of tropical storm force winds is already onshore in several areas according to the NHC. I'd bet that all the dry air is making Beta seem smaller than (she? he?) is.

With the changes in the mid-level winds Beta is doing pretty well in starting to wrap the higher humidity air in. I don't think that was expected.

[Stormcenter]

Looked at it agaIn, still looks like a southward motion to
me.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like it's ingesting dry air from the east? What we though was an eye is opening back up on radar.

[dhweather]

Last official word from the NHC at 1PM CDT

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 93.6
West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h),
and this general motion is forecast to continue during the next day
or so. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north and
northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the coast of
Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night, and remain close
to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is
anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

[Aric Dunn]

The irony is while it's actual CDO is small, the area of tropical storm force winds is already onshore in several areas according to the NHC. I'd bet that all the dry air is making Beta seem smaller than (she? he?) is.

With the changes in the mid-level winds Beta is doing pretty well in starting to wrap the higher humidity air in. I don't think that was expected.

https://i.imgur.com/JVzAavr.gif

I mentioned this yesterday.. that once the ridge builds in it will likley push back the surge of dry air.. and you can very clearly see that in your loop. HUge easterly low and mid level moisture surge pushing into central texas.

essentially cutting off the dry air as time goes on. and beta could become isolated from any dry air in its own moisture pouch.

[underthwx]

Looked at it agaIn, still looks like a southward motion to
me.

It looks that way to me too...or...could it be that big cloud mass expanding outward...giving it the appearance of a swrd motion?....I dunno....

[underthwx]

The irony is while it's actual CDO is small, the area of tropical storm force winds is already onshore in several areas according to the NHC. I'd bet that all the dry air is making Beta seem smaller than (she? he?) is.

With the changes in the mid-level winds Beta is doing pretty well in starting to wrap the higher humidity air in. I don't think that was expected.

https://i.imgur.com/JVzAavr.gif

I mentioned this yesterday.. that once the ridge builds in it will likley push back the surge of dry air.. and you can very clearly see that in your loop. HUge easterly low and mid level moisture surge pushing into central texas.

essentially cutting off the dry air as time goes on. and beta could become isolated from any dry air in its own moisture pouch.

I see what you mean Aric...you called that yesterday...I remember reading your post on that...

[lrak]

So looks like a small mesoscale upper level high might be lessening the shear this afternoon on the back side of this trough that moved through. We'll need to keep an eye on that this afternoon.

https://i.imgur.com/UMphUP2.gif
https://i.imgur.com/F7OztSo.gif

Very cool and so strange that stuff like this happens...how do model makers cope? No sleep...

[Steve]

I am still skeptical this won’t pulse down as quickly as it pulsed up though. Cdo is a bit elongated W-E and there’s a little notch on the NE side where drier air may be trying to intrude. Very interesting developments today, but I still don’t know if I believe it will have much impact on landfall intensity

Agreed. But it’s also going to fire back again.

[TallyTracker]

Looked at it agaIn, still looks like a southward motion to
me.

It looks that way to me too...or...could it be that big cloud mass expanding outward...giving it the appearance of a swrd motion?....I dunno....

I’m thinking it is an illusion due to the expanding CDO. The center is likely still moving wnw to westward.

[cheezyWXguy]

When radar is available, use that for storm motion. System appears on satellite to be being pushed south, but this is due to some NE shear, which is also attempting to disrupt the recent intensification attempt. Storm is barely moving at all, and expected to be looping as it makes its way toward the coast. Core doesn’t look as tight as before and velocities have come back down a bit. Although I personally would have before, I wouldn’t call this a hurricane right now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at radarscope which has a visual of the eye, it appears to be stationary. If anything moving a tad west.

[mpic]

This "system or area" has been in the Gulf since before Sally (at least as far back as Sept.11). Is that a record?