Low Pressure over Southwest Florida

[CDO62]

I believe this may develop once it moved over Gulf.

Seems like everything does this year, quite the blow up of convection in the past hour or so and still over land!

Yeah it's really been building convection recently on the last few radar frames. Should be interesting to see what happens overnight when it's in the gulf. The winds here in West Central Florida have been whipping up pretty good.

[KatDaddy]

I do not want another tropical concern along the Upper TX Coast as we deal with Beta. However its another system to watch and does look interesting on radar. Will 2020 ever end!!!

[northjaxpro]

The low level circulation is moving now just north of Fort Myers and will be emerging off the coast there later tonight.

[Frank P]

The low level circulation is moving now just north of Fort Myers and will be emerging off the coast there later tonight.

And the convection really continues to just build near the center even overland as it moves towards the GOM.. last couple of frames on the vis sat images even looks like a mini hot tower firing off now!

[us89]

I wonder if we'll see a bump in formation probabilities at 8 PM. Despite the convection we've seen today, models still aren't really interested in developing this (but of course, how much has that meant this year).

The bigger issue I see with this system is its limited time. If it wants to develop into something, it'll have to do it relatively quickly before it starts getting wrapped into whatever Beta looks like in three days or so.

[edu2703]

[ronjon]

Radar rainfall estimates are 2 to 4 inches over DeSoto County. Pretty impressive little vort. Soon to go over Charlotte Harbor and GOM.

[MGC]

Quite a bit of convection near the center of the low. Lets see if the convection maintains when the low moves over the Gulf. If it does game on.....MGC

[Frank P]

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
Per the 8 pm update by NHC...

[caneman]

Why are the chances so low. Very vigorous vortex kicking up solid winds on the west coast

[ronjon]

Why are the chances so low. Very vigorous vortex kicking up solid winds on the west coast

Probably because of zero model support.

[ronjon]

Is this our little vort?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020092018&fh=384

[Monsoonjr99]

The NHC is seeing something we don't if they lowered this to 0/0 when it's firing convection over a well-defined low-level circulation. Do they expect the convection to poof the moment this hits water? My best guess is that they expect subsidence from Beta to crush this.

[HurricaneBelle]

Why are the chances so low. Very vigorous vortex kicking up solid winds on the west coast

The winds aren't due to the vortex, they're due to the gradient between Beta to our west and high pressure building down the east coast.

[LarryWx]

Why are the chances so low. Very vigorous vortex kicking up solid winds on the west coast

Actually, some models have a very weak surface reflection of this moving westward well into the GOM. Also, upper winds/shear don’t look unfavorable to me over the next couple of days. This likely won’t ever become a TD, but I still would have kept it as a 10 or maybe even raised it to a 20% lemon for the reasons stated to play it safe for the upcoming 48 hours. Then again, what do I know? The NHC is great. After 48 hours though, I’d say near 0% chance.

[caneman]

I just saw a report out of Lee County saying this is a significant system. At least 50 to 60 mph winds. Weather guy wondering why no warnings. He was cautioning everyone. Check out the live feed on their Facebook page. MATT Devitt Wink Weather. Sorry. Don't know how to post link. Winds are unreal. Looks like a bona-fide high end tropical storm type weather. Its absolutely unreal. In downtown Ft. MEYERS

[boca]

Here in Coconut Creek we have no winds here at all they are calm.

[toad strangler]

Winds on the Treasure Coast in Port Saint Lucie have been gusty since 5PM or so. Definitely not your average evening after sunset here. Also radar lighting up a bit more coming in from the NE.

[boca]

I just saw a report out of Lee County saying this is a significant system. At least 50 to 60 mph winds. Weather guy wondering why no warnings. He was cautioning everyone. Check out the live feed on their Facebook page. MATT Devitt Wink Weather. Sorry. Don't know how to post link. Winds are unreal. Looks like a bona-fide high end tropical storm type weather. Its absolutely unreal. In downtown Ft. MEYERS

I just saw that video the winds are 50mph and they are steady and here south of West Palm Beach the winds are just about calm that’s incredible.

[GeneratorPower]

I just saw a report out of Lee County saying this is a significant system. At least 50 to 60 mph winds. Weather guy wondering why no warnings. He was cautioning everyone. Check out the live feed on their Facebook page. MATT Devitt Wink Weather. Sorry. Don't know how to post link. Winds are unreal. Looks like a bona-fide high end tropical storm type weather. Its absolutely unreal. In downtown Ft. MEYERS

First of all, it’s Fort Myers. Secondly I just went through it and it was bizarre. I was totally encircled by storms. Literally felt like an eye of a hurricane. Calm. Then came the wind gusts. And torrential rain. This was truly bizarre.