2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[DestinHurricane]

What are the potential of systems inside the Caribbean?

Very high. The question is will something take advantage of it.

That's not saying much. Looking for clues in the long range on the GFS but don't see much earlier that could be a trigger down the road. I'm not sold on the origins of this La La land range system yet.

I'm just saying that if we do get some kind of depression down there (which i'm not sold on either), its ceiling is very high IMO. Major quite possible. We'll see if models continue to show it.

[SFLcane]

Precipitation map from the CFS potentially showing some type of system ejecting NE in time.

[SFLcane]

Watching closely during the next 2-3 weeks it seems things might get going if they do around first week of Oct.

Stay tuned!

[SFLcane]

In general this sort of setup would favor Cuba into S FL rather over N FL.

[aspen]

Right now, the GFS/GFS-Para solutions are interesting but not quite worthy of getting hyped or worried over. If in a week they’re showing that same system in the first 3-5 days of October, then it’ll be extra worrying.

Any system that gets a couple of days in the western Caribbean right over those 31C SSTs and >150 kJ cm-2 OHC will be very, very concerning for every single surrounding landmass, because given a favorable environment, it could blow up like Mitch, Gilbert, or Wilma.

[SFLcane]

18z...

[toad strangler]

18z...

https://i.postimg.cc/gjHkcj0Y/3-D93-E810-DD99-416-A-98-E0-C8-BEC3-CDF202.jpg

We aren't getting anywhere posting 384 hour maps run after run. Wake me up when a signal gets at least under 240.

[LarryWx]

18z...

https://i.postimg.cc/gjHkcj0Y/3-D93-E810-DD99-416-A-98-E0-C8-BEC3-CDF202.jpg

Back on Tue evening when I first was analyzing ENSO based analogs for potential Oct CONUS trouble, there had not yet been any GFS runs showing a TC in the W Caribbean. Part of the reason was that the runs ended before the most prime timeframe for genesis per analogs. However, since then as we’ve gotten further out in time in the forecast well into early Oct, a respectable 8 of 20 GFS (and 4 of 18 Para GFS) runs have shown it. When I say that, I mean they showed a full fledged TC/strong low. Additional runs like the 18Z GFS just run have had weaker lows. Plus, most GEFS and para GEFS runs this weekend, including the 18Z runs just out, have been anywhere from somewhat to quite active late in their runs in the W Caribbean and nearby. So, being that I had already become concerned based merely on analogs, I’m naturally even more concerned than I was when I last posted on this Friday afternoon as decent model support seems to now be there. I have yet to see much on the EPS for then, but it hasn’t exactly been stellar on picking up on geneses that far out in time. I’ll be looking to see if the EPS starts to get more active late in their upcoming runs.

I’m fully aware of the history of the GFS to have fake W Caribbean TCs as I’ve often criticized it for that, myself. But I think this time it may be into something since it is backing the ENSO based analogs (current weak to moderate La Niña following a weak to moderate El Niño). Early to mid Oct certainly bears watching and even more than in most seasons.

[LarryWx]

18z...

https://i.postimg.cc/gjHkcj0Y/3-D93-E810-DD99-416-A-98-E0-C8-BEC3-CDF202.jpg

We aren't getting anywhere posting 384 hour maps run after run. Wake me up when a signal gets at least under 240.

The GEFS and para GEFS the last few days have been harping on around Oct 3-4 as when activity has been picking up in and near the W Caribbean. So, I’d say the support is progressing forward.

Check out the brand new (18Z) 31 member para-GEFS.

[SFLcane]

18z...

https://i.postimg.cc/gjHkcj0Y/3-D93-E810-DD99-416-A-98-E0-C8-BEC3-CDF202.jpg

Back on Tue evening when I first was analyzing ENSO based analogs for potential Oct CONUS trouble, there had not yet been any GFS runs showing a TC in the W Caribbean. Part of the reason was that the runs ended before the most prime timeframe for genesis per analogs. However, since then as we’ve gotten further out in time in the forecast well into early Oct, a respectable 8 of 20 GFS (and 4 of 18 Para GFS) runs have shown it. When I say that, I mean they showed a full fledged TC/strong low. Additional runs like the 18Z GFS just run have had weaker lows. Plus, most GEFS and para GEFS runs this weekend, including the 18Z runs just out, have been anywhere from somewhat to quite active late in their runs in the W Caribbean and nearby. So, being that I had already become concerned based merely on analogs, I’m naturally even more concerned than I was when I last posted on this Friday afternoon as decent model support seems to now be there. I have yet to see much on the EPS for then, but it hasn’t exactly been stellar on picking up on geneses that far out in time. I’ll be looking to see if the EPS starts to get more active late in their upcoming runs.

I’m fully aware of the history of the GFS to have fake W Caribbean TCs as I’ve often criticized it for that, myself. But I think this time it may be into something since it is backing the ENSO based analogs (current weak to moderate La Niña following a weak to moderate El Niño). Early Oct certainly bears watching and even more than in most seasons.

Fantastic post! Could not have said it any better. One thing for sure With all these fronts I doubt northern gulf gets anything here. Just speculating but I think this pattern favors a track across Cuba into Southern Florida potentially. I suspect eps will wake up sooner rather then later.

[aspen]

18z GFS has something try to form as early as October 2nd. If that signal is still there by the end of the week, maybe it’ll be time to freak out.

[caneman]

18z...

https://i.postimg.cc/gjHkcj0Y/3-D93-E810-DD99-416-A-98-E0-C8-BEC3-CDF202.jpg

Back on Tue evening when I first was analyzing ENSO based analogs for potential Oct CONUS trouble, there had not yet been any GFS runs showing a TC in the W Caribbean. Part of the reason was that the runs ended before the most prime timeframe for genesis per analogs. However, since then as we’ve gotten further out in time in the forecast well into early Oct, a respectable 8 of 20 GFS (and 4 of 18 Para GFS) runs have shown it. When I say that, I mean they showed a full fledged TC/strong low. Additional runs like the 18Z GFS just run have had weaker lows. Plus, most GEFS and para GEFS runs this weekend, including the 18Z runs just out, have been anywhere from somewhat to quite active late in their runs in the W Caribbean and nearby. So, being that I had already become concerned based merely on analogs, I’m naturally even more concerned than I was when I last posted on this Friday afternoon as decent model support seems to now be there. I have yet to see much on the EPS for then, but it hasn’t exactly been stellar on picking up on geneses that far out in time. I’ll be looking to see if the EPS starts to get more active late in their upcoming runs.

I’m fully aware of the history of the GFS to have fake W Caribbean TCs as I’ve often criticized it for that, myself. But I think this time it may be into something since it is backing the ENSO based analogs (current weak to moderate La Niña following a weak to moderate El Niño). Early Oct certainly bears watching and even more than in most seasons.

Fantastic post! Could not have said it any better. One thing for sure With all these fronts I doubt northern gulf gets anything here. Just speculating but I think this pattern favors a track across Cuba into Southern Florida potentially. I suspect eps will wake up sooner rather then later.

I absolutely wouldn't rule out NW Florida or Central Florida. This is prime time for those areas as well

[TheStormExpert]

18z...

https://i.postimg.cc/gjHkcj0Y/3-D93-E810-DD99-416-A-98-E0-C8-BEC3-CDF202.jpg

No consensus whatsoever that far out. Might as well wait to post until it’s within the 8-10 day range.

[LarryWx]

31 member 18Z Para GEFS and this is hour 330, not the end...in other words, it has been moving up in forecast time with ~Oct 4 the key date:

[TheStormExpert]

Precipitation map from the CFS potentially showing some type of system ejecting NE in time.

https://i.imgur.com/ySLHgoL.png

Possible track through Cuba and The Bahamas but south and east of Florida?

[SFLcane]

31 member 18Z Para GEFS and this is hour 330, not the end...in other words, it has been moving up in forecast time with ~Oct 4 the key date:

https://i.imgur.com/DaeV5uB.png

That’s as active as I have seen the GEFS-P.

[chaser1]

18z...

https://i.postimg.cc/gjHkcj0Y/3-D93-E810-DD99-416-A-98-E0-C8-BEC3-CDF202.jpg

Back on Tue evening when I first was analyzing ENSO based analogs for potential Oct CONUS trouble, there had not yet been any GFS runs showing a TC in the W Caribbean. Part of the reason was that the runs ended before the most prime timeframe for genesis per analogs. However, since then as we’ve gotten further out in time in the forecast well into early Oct, a respectable 8 of 20 GFS (and 4 of 18 Para GFS) runs have shown it. When I say that, I mean they showed a full fledged TC/strong low. Additional runs like the 18Z GFS just run have had weaker lows. Plus, most GEFS and para GEFS runs this weekend, including the 18Z runs just out, have been anywhere from somewhat to quite active late in their runs in the W Caribbean and nearby. So, being that I had already become concerned based merely on analogs, I’m naturally even more concerned than I was when I last posted on this Friday afternoon as decent model support seems to now be there. I have yet to see much on the EPS for then, but it hasn’t exactly been stellar on picking up on geneses that far out in time. I’ll be looking to see if the EPS starts to get more active late in their upcoming runs.

I’m fully aware of the history of the GFS to have fake W Caribbean TCs as I’ve often criticized it for that, myself. But I think this time it may be into something since it is backing the ENSO based analogs (current weak to moderate La Niña following a weak to moderate El Niño). Early Oct certainly bears watching and even more than in most seasons.

Fantastic post! Could not have said it any better. One thing for sure With all these fronts I doubt northern gulf gets anything here. Just speculating but I think this pattern favors a track across Cuba into Southern Florida potentially. I suspect eps will wake up sooner rather then later.

Totally concur. Fantastic post Larry and an insightful analysis into how longer range modeling can be useful. It shouldn't need to be spelled out but when someone posts a single 360 hr. model, it's not because that poster is stating "look at what's going to happen". They're simply sharing one particular model graphic for that particular model run time. As I see it, there's just no need for some to post the habitual "that's in fantasy-land" one liner post. EVERYBODY know's that LOL. It's beginning to sound like my older father-in-law repeating some stale fact that might have been an "ah-ha moment" back in 1985 yet he keeps telling people over and over as if some new discovery. Yes, the global models have sucked in different ways during recent years. That's why no one really looks at any one long range output as a literal declaration about how strong a storm will be, or exactly where it'll landfall. A forecast model simply offers a hint or possible tip off of plausible conditions that a model is picking up on. To Larry's point.... watching how the various ensemble members wax and wane with each updating model run, can greatly aid toward anticipating increasingly favorable (or unfavorable) conditions for tropical development or potential genesis to occur. To further consider past ENSO cycles and consider similar analogue years, such could shed even greater light when considering the more subtle breadcrumbs that the global models might offer us (way beyond the specifics of any one model static long-range forecast).

[chaser1]

Precipitation map from the CFS potentially showing some type of system ejecting NE in time.

https://i.imgur.com/ySLHgoL.png

Possible track through Cuba and The Bahamas but south and east of Florida?

I think the suggestion of such a southwest to northeast finite track south of Florida simply from looking at that precip map is putting way to fine of a tip on what's to come. I think that map certainly suggests an overall mean level flow within it's forecast range. That could refect precip from two or more storms that could track generally to the NNE or ENE. That, or one or two T.D.'s with no named storms whatsoever. Could even be suggestive of one or more stalled frontal boundaries laying across that general region. It's funny and I know exactly what you mean regarding that type of track. It's that scary late season tease that S. Florida has seen many times. An imposing T.S. or hurricane that looks primed to move north and plow into S. Florida, just to suddenly hint of some motion a little east of due north. Nearly every year late in the season when I recall that occurring, is when I pretty much recall that little else would end up forming that that would pose a serious threat to S. Florida. Troughs are certainly becoming more meridional but until we see a long wave pattern set up shop along the Eastern seaboard, we've got a good deal of time before the Westerlies as a whole drop that far south to cause everything to start tracking generally northeastward.

[Hurricaneman]

The system the GFS has developing in the long run in the western Caribbean is the system about to come off of Africa based on looking at long range backwards to current as you can trace it to that point, it certainly doesn’t mean that wave will develop In the western Caribbean since it’s a day from moving off Africa but long range models are hinting at it

[SFLcane]