Area over Cuba

[cycloneye]

This is a different area that is not the other one SW of Florida.

[SFLcane]

Not sure exactly what Stacy is highlighting here.

[jlauderdal]

Not sure exactly what Stacy is highlighting here.

well there is a front heading south, will stall and then come back north....20% seems reasonable and its that time of the year for development on these stalled fronts...its actually a very interestintg setup with beta,teddy and a front all players on the field for florida

[boca]

I was surprised to see the lemon this morning but will see how this week pans out and it’s up to 20% after 48 hours.

[USTropics]

This is all currently at the low-levels, as can be observed in CIMSS products and GFS analysis:


Currently this is attached to the frontal boundary that extends from the GOM to the WATL (highlighted in blue, in the WGOM this becomes a warm front and highlighted in red). General motion should carry this over central Cuba (perhaps as far south as the WCARIB briefly) before being picked up by another approaching trough in ~3-4 days.



Models aren't particularly enthusiastic towards development currently, but this has a good ~4-5 days before moving back over Florida. GFS does show some mid-level shear in the soundings (~15-20 knots). This is a bit easier to track at the mid-levels (700mb vorticity charts) on the GFS, here it is just SW of Tampa on Friday:

[Evil Jeremy]

What differentiates this area of interest from the "Low Pressure over Southwest Florida" that was being tracked over the weekend?

Either way, it's been a cold, gray, and rainy morning here in SE FL. Weather should be like this all day. Yuck.

[edu2703]

What differentiates this area of interest from the "Low Pressure over Southwest Florida" that was being tracked over the weekend?

I initially thought it was the same disturbance. Then I saw that it was a totally different system.

This one should have better luck, moving in an area where upper-level winds are expected to become marginally conducive for development by Thursday. Let's see what the models will show.

[northjaxpro]

Convective acticity has really picked up along that boundary across the Bahamas this mid-day. There appears to be a decent convergence across the Central Bahamas.

This needs to definitely be watched, as environmental conditions with shear looks to be at least marginally conducive in a few days for potential development. The ssts are still quite warm down there, so the 20% prob from NHC is definitely reasonable for the time being.

[SouthFLTropics]

I could see this spinning up into something like Tropical Storm Jerry from 1995.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/lukedorriswplg/status/1308079845868437511

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

Do we know how north into the eastern Gulf this is expected to go? Due to Sally's upwelling, SSTs take a pretty sharp drop north of 25-27N, and would probably not be good for another slower-moving system.

[MetroMike]

Do we know how north into the eastern Gulf this is expected to go? Due to Sally's upwelling, SSTs take a pretty sharp drop north of 25-27N, and would probably not be good for another slower-moving system.

Still sufficient warmth in the Gulf to support development as we have seen many subtropical systems developing in even cooler SST's.

[StAuggy]

I believe I read somewhere on this forum when Sally was in the gulf that some models showed another system forming from this area... so it would appear that the models were indeed correct in forecasting that something in that vicinity and around the modeled timeframe would pop up. I don’t think they did much with it either fwiw.

[LarryWx]

I don't see this ever being a big deal for the CONUS.

[northjaxpro]

I don't see this ever being a big deal for the CONUS.

Remember what I always say Larry, especially this year:

Never say NEVER with everything weather, and in life in general!!

[LarryWx]

I don't see this ever being a big deal for the CONUS.

Remember what I always say Larry, especially this year:

Never say NEVER in everything weather, and in life in general!!

I agree. I didn't say it has 0% chance of ever being a big deal for the CONUS. Rather, I'm saying I don't think this will ever amount to being a big deal for the CONUS. So, I'm predicting it won't be a big deal.

[northjaxpro]

I don't see this ever being a big deal for the CONUS.

Remember what I always say Larry, especially this year:

Never say NEVER in everything weather, and in life in general!!

I agree. I didn't say it has 0% chance of ever being a big deal for the CONUS. Rather, I'm saying I don't think this will ever amount to being a big deal for the CONUS. So, I'm predicting it won't be a big deal.

OK. Fair enough.


I think this has a fair shot to develop by mid week.

[LarryWx]

Remember what I always say Larry, especially this year:

Never say NEVER in everything weather, and in life in general!!

I agree. I didn't say it has 0% chance of ever being a big deal for the CONUS. Rather, I'm saying I don't think this will ever amount to being a big deal for the CONUS. So, I'm predicting it won't be a big deal.

OK. Fair enough.


I think this has a fair shot to develop by mid week.

It can develop by midweek and we both be right, of course, as my prediction is only about whether or not it will have significant effects on the CONUS.

[northjaxpro]

I agree. I didn't say it has 0% chance of ever being a big deal for the CONUS. Rather, I'm saying I don't think this will ever amount to being a big deal for the CONUS. So, I'm predicting it won't be a big deal.

OK. Fair enough.


I think this has a fair shot to develop by mid week.

It can develop by midweek and we both be right, of course, as my prediction is only about whether or not it will have significant effects on the CONUS.

Sure. I agree with you. I definitely hope that what does try to develop will not become anything along the lines of a Laura or Sally that is for darn sure! We all are just wiped out from all the tropical activity this season , and unfortunately, we still have just over two full months of this crazy season to get through.