ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Interesting how the NHC now has it weakening over the next 12 hours and briefly restrengthening after that.

[Kazmit]

Interesting how the NHC now has it weakening over the next 12 hours and briefly restrengthening after that.

Passing over Paulette's cool wake vs approaching the Gulf Stream.

[dukeblue219]

Is that an eye starting to reemerge on IR?


Edit: updated to more recent loop showing additional development.

[abajan]

Bermuda is getting POUNDED by surf right now, I've seen some crazy footage from relatives.

Excerpt from the 5 PM NHC Teddy Discussion:

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

[aspen]

Is that an eye starting to reemerge on IR?
https://i.postimg.cc/j2B1wQkK/goes16-ir-20-L-202009202005.gif

Edit: updated to more recent loop showing additional development.

Looks like a moderate sized, stable eye is back. Teddy’s path over Paulette’s cold wake will probably keep intensification in check until it reaches the much warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, and if the core is still in good shape then, maybe it could become a major one last time.

[us89]

NHC's latest discussion explicitly mentions the potential for some strengthening

There is a chance, within the next 24 hours, that Teddy could
strengthen a bit due to dynamic forcing as a result of the
approaching baroclinic zone moving off of the northeast coast of
the United States. In Fact, the HCCA intensity model shows a peak
of 95 kt at the 24 hour period.

New forecast calls for a 110 mph peak in 24 hours.

[ClarCari]

I think they should maybe issue Hurricane watches and warnings for Bermuda soon. His wind field is big and keeps pushing slowly too much more westward each advisory towards the island for comfort imo

[ElectricStorm]

Teddy refuses to quit... NHC now calls for it to be close to a major again in 24 hours. Prayers for all affected in Bermuda, back to back hurricanes has got to be rough out there.

[dukeblue219]

Last night Teddy looked like it was rallying but this morning the deep convection is all gone. It's back to asymmetrical convection with more of a comma shape.

[PavelGaborik10]

I'd be surprised if the aircraft finds 100 MPH winds. Teddy is looking real rough this morning.

[plasticup]

Bermuda is getting POUNDED by surf right now, I've seen some crazy footage from relatives.

Excerpt from the 5 PM NHC Teddy Discussion:

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Definitely more than 20 feet. I'd say closer to 30 feet. Elbow beach is entirely gone. It will take years for the beaches to recover from this.

[SconnieCane]

Bermuda is getting POUNDED by surf right now, I've seen some crazy footage from relatives.

Excerpt from the 5 PM NHC Teddy Discussion:

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been
reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are
encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.

Definitely more than 20 feet. I'd say closer to 30 feet. Elbow beach is entirely gone. It will take years for the beaches to recover from this.

Interesting that Teddy is doing this while previous direct-hitting (and in some cases, stronger on closest approach) storms such as Nicole, Humberto and even Paulette did not.

[Kazmit]

It is now moving NNE away from Bermuda. Wave impact looks to be the worst part about Teddy, winds have been light on the island.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It is now moving NNE away from Bermuda. Wave impact looks to be the worst part about Teddy, winds have been light on the island.

Good to know.

I hope Teddy proves as generally benign when he visits our region tomorrow, particularly the Eastern portion. *crosses fingers & toes*

[aspen]

While Teddy has significantly weakened in terms of winds, recon shows it’s actually deepening, probably due to baroclinic forces. The latest pass is down to 955 mbar extrapolated, down several mbar from the previous pass. This should keep ACE high despite only Cat 1/2 winds.

[aspen]

Look at that west quadrant. 105 kt FL and 65 kt SFMR would average out to 85 kt.

[Kazmit]

While Teddy has significantly weakened in terms of winds, recon shows it’s actually deepening, probably due to baroclinic forces. The latest pass is down to 955 mbar extrapolated, down several mbar from the previous pass. This should keep ACE high despite only Cat 1/2 winds.

I thought ACE was through wind speed, not pressure?

[aspen]

While Teddy has significantly weakened in terms of winds, recon shows it’s actually deepening, probably due to baroclinic forces. The latest pass is down to 955 mbar extrapolated, down several mbar from the previous pass. This should keep ACE high despite only Cat 1/2 winds.

I thought ACE was through wind speed, not pressure?

I was under the impression it used both wind and pressure.

I searched it up and you're right, it's only max winds.

[gfsperpendicular]

Look at that west quadrant. 105 kt FL and 65 kt SFMR would average out to 85 kt.
https://i.imgur.com/kcF4ux6.png
https://i.imgur.com/Dig0376.png

You can't just average the FL and SFMR, you have to take into account the reduction of the winds down to the surface which I think is .85 from this current flight level. Averaging the reduced FL and SFMR would get you 75 or 80kts.

[CrazyC83]

When a storm is transitioning to extratropical, the ratio tends to decrease. 75-80%, at the most, is probably appropriate here. The fact the strongest winds may have been outside the flight path may have to be considered, but 80 kt seems reasonable.