Area over Cuba

[Emmett_Brown]

Hmm... 12Z GFS shear map shows an anticyclone and hence very low shear by hour 72 over the FL Straits and W Cuba. If our nascent vorticity/LLC happens to be under it at that time, it certainly would favor some development. Water temps in the FL Straits and around Cuba are running 30C+, about as warm as you ever see them. GFS shows Mid level dry air currently behind the front begins to modify and moisten by then. The suppressive phase of the CCKW could hamper it, but late September is still prime time for this area, so that factor is probably just neutral. Considering how fertile a zone this has been, I will go with 40% chance this becomes a named system, at least a low end TS.

[northjaxpro]

Hmm... 12Z GFS shear map shows an anticyclone and hence very low shear by hour 72 over the FL Straits and W Cuba. If our nascent vorticity/LLC happens to be under it at that time, it certainly would favor some development. Water temps in the FL Straits and around Cuba are running 30C+, about as warm as you ever see them. GFS shows Mid level dry air currently behind the front begins to modify and moisten by then. The suppressive phase of the CCKW could hamper it, but late September is still prime time for this area, so that factor is probably just neutral. Considering how fertile a zone this has been, I will go with 40% chance this becomes a named system, at least a low end TS.

Yes, I saw the things you mentioned here at work assessing my analysis above Emmett. This is why I agreed with Stewart last night as well. I think this has a decent shot to develop.

[Pompano321]

Boynton beach today High tide

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/932x ... 6UuhqN.jpg

[us89]

Do we know how north into the eastern Gulf this is expected to go? Due to Sally's upwelling, SSTs take a pretty sharp drop north of 25-27N, and would probably not be good for another slower-moving system.

Still sufficient warmth in the Gulf to support development as we have seen many subtropical systems developing in even cooler SST's.

Plus the SSTs in the northern Gulf aren't that cool, even after Sally. They just look cold when you compare them with the 30-31C bathwater elsewhere in the Gulf and west Caribbean.

Lowest I'm seeing on the map right now is somewhere around 27.5C. We probably won't get anything to RI to a major up there, but that water is still above the usual 26.5C limit for tropical cyclogenesis.

[DestinHurricane]

Boynton beach today High tide

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/932x ... 6UuhqN.jpg

Tide was very high here in boca as well.

[JDHoss]

Boynton beach today High tide

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/932x ... 6UuhqN.jpg

Tide was very high here in boca as well.

Pretty high in Fort Pierce as well, with some minor street flooding on Hutchinson Island and the waves are running all the way up to the dunes.

[Steve H.]

If shear relaxes down in the straits of Florida and the adjacent areas, this could be a real home grown washed out front menace. Latest visible shows the familiar look of a developing TC and five point thunderstorm look that is pretty symmetrical. Still low probability at this time, but definitely worth keeping an eye on. Forecast is for this area to migrate north over the peninsula later this week.

[stormhunter7]

FYI, there is a low level spin in the GOM, to the wNW of key west.

[Nimbus]

There is a large anticyclone over the gulf and the trough is still drifting south.
20% sounds about right since there is already a broad area with some slow turning west of Andros island.

[artist]

Singer Island live cam of the waves
https://video-monitoring.com/beachcams/ ... stream.htm
Loads better of Jupiter
http://www.evsjupiter.com/

[cycloneye]

An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the Central
Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida is associated
with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue
moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next
couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through
Saturday. Marginally conducive environmental conditions are
expected when the system approaches the Florida Keys and South
Florida late this week, and development, if any, should be slow to
occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across the Florida Keys tonight, and over western Cuba
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Bahamas
westward through Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a cold front. This system is forecast to move
slowly southward during the next couple of days, and then move back
northward on Thursday through Saturday. Development, if any, over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week is expected to be
slow to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over portions of Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday and over
the Florida Keys and south Florida on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Frank P]

Convection slowly starting to build in the southern GOM and off the west coast of Cuba this morning, southern GOM just might be the area to watch... tbd

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Bahamas
westward through Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a cold front. This system is forecast to move
little for the next day or so, then move back northward on Thursday
through Saturday. While development of this system over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week is very unlikely, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba through Wednesday
and over the Florida Keys and south Florida on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[SFLcane]

Rain for Florida late week.

[AutoPenalti]

:blowup:

Rain for Florida late week.

I'm already bored of yesterday's rainfall.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO= No mention.

[edu2703]

And...gone

Looks like the Atlantic will take a short break on tropical cyclones.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1308559679023439872




I wouldn't kill this yet