BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
200 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.4N 63.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 43.4 North, longitude 63.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 18
mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move
over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or over
Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Although additional weakening is likely today,
Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near
and over Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540
miles (870 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY NEARING NOVA SCOTIA...
...CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 62.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 62.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23
mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or
over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
but Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while
passing over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust
to 57 mph (94 km/h) were reported at Brier Island along the western
coast of Nova Scotia within the past few hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
Corrected status at 48H
Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy
observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a
central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the
system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated
maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The
system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong
extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After
passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy
merging with another large extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.
The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt.
Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the
vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move
north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next
36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official
track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely
follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA.
Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the
next few days.
Key Messages:
1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone
while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through
tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large
destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia
today.
2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
800 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
...TEDDY CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.8N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
* North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the
progress of Teddy.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23
mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over eastern Nova Scotia soon, and then near or over
Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but
Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while passing
over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to
51 mph (81 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the
eastern coast of Nova Scotia.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the
watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
...TEDDY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ECUM SECUM NOVA SCOTIA...
...STILL FORECAST TO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.0N 61.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Digby to Ecum Secum Nova Scotia.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch from Fort Lawrence to Digby Nova Scotia, and from west of
Brule to Tidnish.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Meat Cove
* Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Meat Cove to Brule Nova Scotia
* Magdalen Islands Quebec
* Prince Edward Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress
of Teddy.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Teddy made landfall near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 800 AM AST
(1200 UTC), with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 km/h),
and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb (28.47 inches).
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy
was located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 61.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26
mph (43 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
will move over the Gulf of St. Lawrence this afternoon, be near
Newfoundland early tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Teddy should slowly weaken today before dissipating on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to
67 mph (107 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the
eastern coast of Nova Scotia.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible over portions of
eastern Nova Scotia east of Ecum Secum. Near the coast, large and
destructive waves are likely.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the
Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia
warning area and are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning
area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch areas today.
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals
of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020
Surface observations indicate that Teddy made landfall this morning
near Ecum Secum, Nova Scotia, near 1200 UTC with estimated maximum
sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum pressure of 964 mb. Since
then, the storm has continued to race across Nova Scotia and is
slowly weakening. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt. Teddy
should move north-northeastward across the Gulf of St. Lawrence this
afternoon then move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing
east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging
with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. No
significant changes were made to the previous track or intensity
forecasts, which are similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.
Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
creating dangerous rip currents will linger over much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.
Key Messages:
1. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy today is large
destructive waves along the southeastern coast of Nova Scotia.
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of
Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.
2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 46.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/0000Z 49.5N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/1200Z 54.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake