2020 WPAC Season

[Weatherboi1023]

Something is rotating NE of the Marshall Islands
There's also a turning motion near Guam based on radar.

Saw that one too. Will the Guam pre-invest move poleward? Seems like the overall steering pattern has not yet changed with the development of 93W

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[Weatherboi1023]

Maybe a backloaded TC season for the Philippines...
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... forecasts/

Agree. I feel stakes are high though visible satellite image indicators are not yet evident.

In fact, hot temp readings have been impacting PH over the last 3 days or so, with isolated t-storms in some areas.

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[mrbagyo]

[Weatherboi1023]

I can see some swirling motion / a bit of rotating action there

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[euro6208]

Showers and thunderstorms increasing around Guam as a surface trough interacting with an upper level low and trough brought some heavy showers and thunderstorms to Saipan and Tinian. Models are null with this.

Looks like we may have to watch eastern Micronesia as some of the models are beginning to show a broad circulation developing midweek.

[Weatherboi1023]

Showers and thunderstorms increasing around Guam as a surface trough interacting with an upper level low and trough brought some heavy showers and thunderstorms to Saipan and Tinian. Models are null with this.

Looks like we may have to watch eastern Micronesia as some of the models are beginning to show a broad circulation developing midweek.

Are the models seeing the eastern micronesia disturbance track more equatorward?

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[Hayabusa]

The formation of the storms that became record intense typhoons of a record quiet season occurred in early October, like Megi and Zeb formed before the 2nd week of October.
So I'd watch for such one starting this early October.

MJO for the next two weeks looks bleak though.


Maxed MPI over the tropics just sitting idly.

[euro6208]

Showers and thunderstorms increasing around Guam as a surface trough interacting with an upper level low and trough brought some heavy showers and thunderstorms to Saipan and Tinian. Models are null with this.

Looks like we may have to watch eastern Micronesia as some of the models are beginning to show a broad circulation developing midweek.

Are the models seeing the eastern micronesia disturbance track more equatorward?

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Not sure.

EURO and GFS are all over the place. Latest runs are on and off. Don't focus on just one run. Looks like end of September and early October could spawn a few TC's.

[euro6208]

Remember even though the WPAC is the world's most active basin...It only takes one...is the motto...

The Philippines have been known to be hit during the last few months of the year during a nina event and it is extraordinaire.

Yet little coverage and hype to hype the masses...

[ElectricStorm]

Remember even though the WPAC is the world's most active basin...It only takes one...is the motto...

The Philippines have been known to be hit during the last few months of the year during a nina event and it is extraordinaire.

Yet little coverage and hype to hype the masses...

Little coverage because there's no storms out there besides Dolphin which won't do a whole lot

[euro6208]

Remember even though the WPAC is the world's most active basin...It only takes one...is the motto...

The Philippines have been known to be hit during the last few months of the year during a nina event and it is extraordinaire.

Yet little coverage and hype to hype the masses...

Little coverage because there's no storms out there besides Dolphin which won't do a whole lot

Not just this year, but in the past. Even in the most active years, there is little to no coverage and hype.

Not complaining really. I see a stark difference in how media and the masses react...

[euro6208]

October in the Philippines.

12Z



18Z

[euro6208]

94W THREAD

Looks like GFS is becoming robust with this. Out from nowhere.

[euro6208]

00Z

[euro6208]

06Z strongest run so far. 949mb into Luzon.

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

Week-1 looks fairly quiet otherwise, outside of a moderate chance for a TC developing near the Luzon Strait late in the period and tracking eastward, as supported by the ECMWF model.

[dexterlabio]

Classic La Nina track shown by long range GFS...that unique westward bend as the STR to the north builds

The question is, how many of these west runner typhoons will appear in the last quarter of 2020? And how strong could they possibly get?

[euro6208]

EURO develops the P.I sea system and moves it east.

[euro6208]

GFS during the same time frame develops not one but two systems with the latter becoming a formidable typhoon.