2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Steve]

Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
9h
Weatherbell is looking for at least one more impact storm, likely with origin Caribbean, coming from the south and perhaps a major. So if that happens, get ready for another run of Weaponizing hurricanes, even though we can see this stuff coming due to past patterns.

The last sentence is interesting. What exactly does he mean another run of weaponizing hurricanes? "We can see this stuff coming due to past patterns" this just really makes you think. That movie Geostorm might be on to something.

Without getting political here, I think he means some will use it as a way to promote the climate change theory as they have done previously or like they are doing with the wildfires. I'll leave it at that.

As opposed to him already accusing people of doing exactly what he's doing - weaponizing climate. Many of his clients are fossil fuel/oil & gas interests, and plenty of his followers are rubes. I'll leave it at that (not suggesting you are, obviously. We've been posting together for 25 years).

[DestinHurricane]

The fact that the GFS is moving this storm closer in time rather than later is concerning. Usually if it was a phantom it would get pushed back in time. The signal we are seeing is a stronger signal of Caribbean activity than we saw in 2017/18/19. Let's see if these model trends continue.

The season is nowhere close to over.

[AutoPenalti]

I still think this will be a EPAC event, despite the somewhat consistent cyclogenesis in the Caribbean.

It's a possibility but based on what suggest this will be an epac event? Fact is signal is little more intriguing this morning as the GFS is moving up in time. We'll see if it continues

https://i.imgur.com/FU6AlFv.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZRCKRsO.png

GFS has been notorious in forming systems in the Caribbean only to drop the solution a couple of days later and instead focus on the EPAC. That and isn't the MJO moving towards phase 6 and 7 during October?

[cheezyWXguy]

I still think this will be a EPAC event, despite the somewhat consistent cyclogenesis in the Caribbean.

It's a possibility but based on what suggest this will be an epac event? Fact is signal is little more intriguing this morning as the GFS is moving up in time. We'll see if it continues

https://i.imgur.com/FU6AlFv.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZRCKRsO.png

GFS has been notorious to form systems the Caribbean only to drop the solution a couple of days later and instead focus on the EPAC. That and isn't the MJO moving towards phase 6 and 7 during October?

Actually this year it has been the reverse. Gfs has gone through several episodes of showing epac development only to see it shift or end up with notably weaker storms. Especially earlier in the season, the gfs seemed to trying to hold on to El Niño climo biases

[weeniepatrol]

A reminder that weak pushing moderate la nina conditions are already in place. Development will be in the Caribbean, not the Pacific...

[SFLcane]

I still think this will be a EPAC event, despite the somewhat consistent cyclogenesis in the Caribbean.

It's a possibility but based on what suggest this will be an epac event? Fact is signal is little more intriguing this morning as the GFS is moving up in time. We'll see if it continues

https://i.imgur.com/FU6AlFv.png

https://i.imgur.com/ZRCKRsO.png

GFS has been notorious in forming systems in the Caribbean only to drop the solution a couple of days later and instead focus on the EPAC. That and isn't the MJO moving towards phase 6 and 7 during October?

The signal moved up this morning so it’s time to watch to see if that continues. I will leave you with Webb’s tweet this morning.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1308730989691244544

[Shell Mound]

Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
9h
Weatherbell is looking for at least one more impact storm, likely with origin Caribbean, coming from the south and perhaps a major. So if that happens, get ready for another run of Weaponizing hurricanes, even though we can see this stuff coming due to past patterns.

The last sentence is interesting. What exactly does he mean another run of weaponizing hurricanes? "We can see this stuff coming due to past patterns" this just really makes you think. That movie Geostorm might be on to something.

I don’t want to get into politics here, but Hurricane “Gamma” Ray somehow fits ‘20, especially if it hits the Tampa Bay Rays HQ and U.S. Central Command (C.E.N.T.C.O.M.), that is, MacDill Air Force Base. Tampa Bay is one of the most vulnerable and overdue spots between TX and ME, in terms of susceptibility to damage from a combination of fetch, storm surge, demographics, sensitive infrastructure, and location relative to storm trajectory, among other factors. (For instance, a worst-case MH for Tampa Bay would likely track over or north of the I-4 corridor, placing Orlando and Kennedy Space Centre on the southeast side of the storm, which would be strongest in an 1848- or 1921-type system, heading from SW to NE.) Yes, I am talking about this because I am starting to get more concerned about the potential for significant TCG activity over the (S)W Caribbean during the first week of October, given trends favouring the G(E)FS(-P) and Canadian, as the latest (00Z/23) EPS now shows hints of development in the same timeframe/location. The ceiling would certainly imply potential for the strongest TC yet of ‘20 to form, should all factors prove conducive to rapid deepening. Hurricane “Gamma” Ray...hmm...it certainly sounds “nuclear” and could even “go nuclear” over those untouched W-Caribbean SSTs and volcanic TCHP just beneath. Many people here have been waiting for another Wilma-type MH to set new records for peak winds and MSLP in the Atlantic basin. Maybe “Gamma” Ray could do it. Wilma (160 knots/882 mb) aside, the W Caribbean is climatologically the hotspot for record-breaking Atlantic systems, including Cuba ‘24 (145 knots/910 mb), Cuba ‘26 (130 knots/934 mb), Cuba ‘32 (150 knots/<915 mb), Cuba ‘44 (125 knots/937 mb), Fox ‘52 (125 knots/934 mb), Janet ‘55 (150 knots/914 mb), Hattie ‘61 (145 knots/914 mb), Gilbert ‘88 (160 knots/888 mb), Mitch ‘98 (155 knots/905 mb), Michelle ‘01 (120 knots/933 mb), and Paloma ‘08 (125 knots/944 mb).

[Jr0d]

Normally I would not give too much trust in the GFS super long ranger, however I will have a week off starting October 9th and will be driving from the Key West to Central Florida, so based on Murphy's law this will be when the storm hits Florida.

[Spacecoast]

GEFS still showing more of an EPAC event. Not sold yet on the idea.

https://i.ibb.co/yY1RkY7/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh318-trend.gif

More reliable GFS-P is in the Caribbean.

According to TT: As of 12z the GFS-P ensemble is no longer, and the GEFS will be upgraded to version 12.

Does that mean the 'new' GEFS = the more reliable GFS-P??

Edit: Answer is yes...
GEFS will now have 31 members.
and according to this:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/CDPW/43/oral-sessions/presentations/thurs/CDPW-2018-Zhou.pdf:

Major Changes of GEFS in the next version(V12, Q2FY20)
•Changing the dynamical core from the global spectral model (GSM) to GFDL FV3.
•Switching from Stochastic Total Tendency Perturbation (STTP) to a suite of two/three “stochastic physics” methods.
•Similar physics package except changing Zhao-CarrMP to GFDL MP
•Extending 16-day forecast to 35-day forecast

[cheezyWXguy]

Gradually, I am gaining confidence that this may not be a fluke. Timing is generally remaining consistent, and any deviations occurring appear to be due to southward progression of the front in play. The further the front dives, the earlier and further east the interaction with the tropical wave occurs. A lesser progression allows the wave to travel more west before interaction, resulting in genesis closer to the Yucatán slightly later. This looks more like a depiction of pattern variability than climatological bias to me

[SFLcane]

57 what are your thoughts?.. I see you

[TheStormExpert]

So 06z GFS had a decent hurricane into the west coast of Florida, while the 12z GFS moves it into Central America and Mexico with little development. All in all it’s too soon to speculate on where this might end up but with the NAO ready to go negative those in Florida should watch this closely as development begins on October 3rd or 4th and the timeframe is coming in.

[SFLcane]

Development is slower this run 12z GFS which is why it goes west into CA. We'll see if it's a one off (possible) or start of a trend.

[SFLcane]

Gradually, I am gaining confidence that this may not be a fluke. Timing is generally remaining consistent, and any deviations occurring appear to be due to southward progression of the front in play. The further the front dives, the earlier and further east the interaction with the tropical wave occurs. A lesser progression allows the wave to travel more west before interaction, resulting in genesis closer to the Yucatán slightly later. This looks more like a depiction of pattern variability than climatological bias to me

If it doesn't develop early it's going into Central America. Which is probably why the Euro and most EPS members don't do anything with it. So we'll watch that trend over time assuming the system is still there

[toad strangler]

Development is slower this run 12z GFS which is why it goes west into CA. We'll see if it's a one off (possible) or start of a trend.

I don't see how trends can be a thing this far out. It's the wild fluctuations of long range.

[Spacecoast]

GFS trend:

[cheezyWXguy]

Gradually, I am gaining confidence that this may not be a fluke. Timing is generally remaining consistent, and any deviations occurring appear to be due to southward progression of the front in play. The further the front dives, the earlier and further east the interaction with the tropical wave occurs. A lesser progression allows the wave to travel more west before interaction, resulting in genesis closer to the Yucatán slightly later. This looks more like a depiction of pattern variability than climatological bias to me

If it doesn't develop early it's going into Central America. Which is probably why the Euro and most EPS members don't do anything with it. So we'll watch that trend over time assuming the system is still there

It’s not necessarily that the wave develops slower, it’s that the interaction with the front occurs later because it doesn’t progress south as much. Look at the 500mb pattern during this time and compare to previous runs. Knowing how the gfs tends to overdo troughs in the long range, the western scenario could be more likely, or the front may not progress far enough south for development at all. On the other hand, the wave could end up stronger in the Caribbean, allowing it to develop despite being further removed from the front. Or it could track through the Caribbean further north. Too many questions at this point to make a call

[blp]

I think the main origin is the tail end of the front. The CMC is hinting at jumping on board but not yet in range. To me makes the most sense the tail end detaches into NW Carribean and slowly spins up waiting for the next shortwave to pull it north. Very typical scenario. I just need another model not the GFS jump on board for me to thinks it's real.

[TheStormExpert]

Gradually, I am gaining confidence that this may not be a fluke. Timing is generally remaining consistent, and any deviations occurring appear to be due to southward progression of the front in play. The further the front dives, the earlier and further east the interaction with the tropical wave occurs. A lesser progression allows the wave to travel more west before interaction, resulting in genesis closer to the Yucatán slightly later. This looks more like a depiction of pattern variability than climatological bias to me

If it doesn't develop early it's going into Central America. Which is probably why the Euro and most EPS members don't do anything with it. So we'll watch that trend over time assuming the system is still there

Development is still in the 10+ day range which is why the Euro and its ensembles don’t anything yet. Besides you’d think there would be a trough waiting to sweep it north and east towards Florida like there’s been all month so far.

[SFLcane]

12z GEFS is much more active.