2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

12z CMC....

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1309190072672157699

[Spacecoast]

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1309190072672157699?

18z GEFS looks a bit calmer than the 12z GEFS (up to Hr 276).
Perhaps the 12z GEPS??

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1309190072672157699?

18z GEFS looks a bit calmer than the 12z GEFS (up to Hr 276).
Perhaps the 12z GEPS??
https://i.ibb.co/GHkj782/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh210-384.gif

Yep everything is in Eastern pacific next 2 weeks it looks like.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1309190072672157699?

18z GEFS looks a bit calmer than the 12z GEFS (up to Hr 276).
Perhaps the 12z GEPS??
https://i.ibb.co/GHkj782/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh210-384.gif

Quite a deviation from previous runs, practically no stronger members at all in the Caribbean. We’ll see if this starts a trend

[gatorcane]

Quite a long-wave trough for this time of year on the GFS, Euro, and CMC. The GFS has low 60s into Central Florida next week. Good thing the GFS is going with EPAC development so nothing gets pulled northward out of the Caribbean:

[Loveweather12]

For now.
It’s common knowledge/ sense how this model acts this year. I wouldn’t be surprised & frankly am expecting more storms to form. The season isn’t over officially until November 30th. Everyone seems to forget that.

Quite a long-wave trough for this time of year on the GFS, Euro, and CMC. The GFS has low 60s into Central Florida next week. Good thing the GFS is going with EPAC development so nothing gets pulled northward out of the Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/W4wYdkyc/gfs-z500a-Norm-us-fh48-192.gif

[SFLcane]

18z GEFS ensembles...

[aspen]

I am slightly concerned about a MDR-born storm in the next 7-14 days, because it looks like the ridge of high pressure will build back in and steer anything in the MDR straight west. A tropical wave that waits a while to develop or a fully-fleshed TC could be pushed into the broiling eastern Caribbean, or the warm waters in the Bahamas and just north of the GAs. However, the signals are only a little stronger than the WCar system, and the timeframe is further out.

[cheezyWXguy]

I am slightly concerned about a MDR-born storm in the next 7-14 days, because it looks like the ridge of high pressure will build back in and steer anything in the MDR straight west. A tropical wave that waits a while to develop or a fully-fleshed TC could be pushed into the broiling eastern Caribbean, or the warm waters in the Bahamas and just north of the GAs. However, the signals are only a little stronger than the WCar system, and the timeframe is further out.

Gfs op doesn’t do much with it, but it does show a weak closed low making its way toward the Florida straits by the end of the run. Guessing this is the same thing as that stronger member east of Florida on the ensembles posted above. This could be reasonable, given that the mdr usually starts to turn less favorable around now, allowing it to progress further west. But I don’t recall many gefs members showing this system in previous runs.

[chaser1]

ICON and CMC 0Z runs showing strong signals for a westward moving Central Caribbean low but their respective timing just goes to the point that model clarity just ain't gonna happen...... until it happens. There will continue to be plenty of model "there it is" and "where'd it go" until some point approx 3-4 days out. It'll be as if a Klingon warship had suddenly decloaked - weapons loaded.

[chaser1]

0Z GFS while not jumping on any Caribbean band-wagon (yet), is now dropping it's E. PAC storm-apoluzza as compared to recent runs. Have faith, GFS's eyes just aren't like they used to be. Sadly, she now needs a seeing eye-dog simply to peer out into the mid-range. Hey, aging sucks

[cheezyWXguy]

00z gefs back to showing a stronger signal for the Caribbean system

[Fancy1001]

00z gefs back to showing a stronger signal for the Caribbean system

I laughed when I saw one of the ensembles take a category 5 into miami, and then laughed even more when another one took a category 4 into tampa.

[SFLcane]

An active look to the 00z GEFS ensembles some stronger ones there and also earlier.

[SFLcane]

Some GEFS are showing development under 200hrs now.

[SFLcane]

00z Canadian...

[SFLcane]

06z GEFs continues the active trend some ensembles start developing around 180hrs.

[SFLcane]

EPS showing probability of a TD up to 50-55%

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS ensembles some look.