2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Spacecoast]

A poorly organized 1004mb low is nothing to loose sleep over on the 18z GFS. Wake me up when things get more interesting.

Cat4 into Bahamas interesting enough?
Looks like Matthew.

[TheStormExpert]

A poorly organized 1004mb low is nothing to loose sleep over on the 18z GFS. Wake me up when things get more interesting.

18z gfs ensembles still active paint a very different picture.

https://i.postimg.cc/9FYqmjqC/959-A87-C2-F928-46-FF-8-A55-5-BE109-F08-C25.jpg

Those look to be from a wave coming off Africa, not the Western Caribbean. I’m 99.9% sure anything coming off Africa from here on out makes it Florida, let alone the U.S.

[TheStormExpert]

A poorly organized 1004mb low is nothing to loose sleep over on the 18z GFS. Wake me up when things get more interesting.

Cat4 into Bahamas interesting enough?
Looks like Matthew.

https://i.ibb.co/TkPrHG2/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh222-330.gif

Thankfully the North Atlantic Oscillation is negative so this won’t happen right!?

[Hurricaneman]

This run of the 0zGFS shows landfall at 348hrs at Destin, the details will change but I do believe that something will form at day 8 in the western Caribbean somewhere

[StPeteMike]

I am also convinced we will see something in the WeCa. By Wednesday or Thursday we will have a better understanding on strength and trajectory, which will be influenced in the strength of the cold front that comes down.

[cheezyWXguy]

The latest gfs may be picking up the same idea the icon has, that the signal we’ve been seeing may be for two separate systems. The first being the front interaction in the west Caribbean, and another easterly wave in the east Caribbean that makes its way west a few days later. This has been hinted at for a few runs now of the gefs, wondering if there is anything to it

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is what the GFS and Canadian show.

Q



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[cheezyWXguy]

0z gefs may have the strongest signal for development it’s shown yet

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro Ensembles are starting to get onboard as well...

[SFLcane]

00z Canadian strongest run yet.

[SFLcane]

0z gefs may have the strongest signal for development it’s shown yet

Yes wow.

[N2FSU]

0z GFS-Para


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[N2FSU]

6z GFS



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[otowntiger]

6z GFShttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200926/7594f2431ba6662ff4ac72766327c33d.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200926/ba11c66345aed78e0e034da78569406a.jpg


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That model run suggests yet another potential threat to the Northern gulf coast by a significant storm. Of course it’s still fantasy land range and I expect the next run to be very different.

[N2FSU]

Eventual landfall of 6z GFS


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[SFLcane]

Development starts near 130hrs with the GFS-P..

In the early development group on GEFS

[gatorcane]

Wow models looks much more bullish.

On a side note, peninsula Florida’s hurricane deflector shield activated on the GFS-P. One of these times it is going to fail us

[SFLcane]

Wow models looks much more bullish.

On a side note, peninsula Florida’s hurricane deflector shield activated on the GFS-P. One of these times it is going to fail us

https://i.postimg.cc/1Rbxq9Vt/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh204-300.gif

Highly unlikely track there with those wilds swings. There will be a big trof in place ready to bring anything north or northeastward. 06z GEFS now starts development near 130 hrs and is over FL.

[SFLcane]

Great thread!

 https://twitter.com/jkpweather/status/1309813180529610753

[ElectricStorm]

Development starts near 130hrs with the GFS-P..

In the early development group on GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/3BdnRuk.gif

Dang now that there would be brutal... Misses Cuba so it would have time to get stronger