2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[robbielyn]

Don’t count on a hurricane coming out of the Western Caribbean next week. May have to wait until later in the month we see something more significant.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1309987091892367360

well then this will probably hit the peninsula. We always get the sheared slop

[TheStormExpert]

Still not much in the way of intense members. Honestly I’m tired of this season and wouldn’t mind if we don’t see an October monster like most are expecting due to La Niña.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jkpweather/status/1309969425660030978

[blp]

Makes sense.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1309997856640696322

[cheezyWXguy]

Makes sense.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1309997856640696322?s=20

This is what concerns me about the cmc, and even the icon. Both have been more consistent run to run, and form it closer to the center of the anticyclone. It is worth noting that both have been better than the gfs and euro at predicting cyclogenesis this year

[Blown Away]

Most of the TC’s in October are pulled N from a trough sweeping down into the GOM/Caribbean. It’s hard to predict how a TC will react to the trough, especially 8+ days out, even 24 hours out there will be uncertainty how the trough/shear will effect a TC. Good example was Wilma.

[Spacecoast]

Makes sense.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1309997856640696322?s=20

This is what concerns me about the cmc, and even the icon. Both have been more consistent run to run, and form it closer to the center of the anticyclone. It is worth noting that both have been better than the gfs and euro at predicting cyclogenesis this year

Don't forget NAV...



18z FSU has TC genesis probability:
0-48: 7% (12z NAV)
0-120: 23% (12z NAV)
0-168(below): 30% (12z NAV)

[blp]

18z GFS Para still with the two systems.

[StPeteMike]

The probability will certainly go up the next few days, up til Thursday. By then, we will certainly have 100% development within the next 48 hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

Most of the TC’s in October are pulled N from a trough sweeping down into the GOM/Caribbean. It’s hard to predict how a TC will react to the trough, especially 8+ days out, even 24 hours out there will be uncertainty how the trough/shear will effect a TC. Good example was Wilma.

I still remember pretty vividly waking up that morning to Wilma. Went to bed the night before with a cat1, woke up and thought “ugh, wunderground is glitching out, I guess it didn’t strengthen and is stuck at 982mb”. Then I saw the satellite imagery...

[SFLcane]

18z Para with Wilma 2.0

[SconnieCane]

Except without getting dramatically weakened over the Yucatan.

[toad strangler]

Temper the Wilma talk lol. She was an epic cyclone WELL before the NE turn over the Yucatán. The final product being a mature cyclone with an enlarged major hurricane eye that ravaged the FL peninsula without weakening in any significant way. Would be extremely unlikely to redux her...

[SFLcane]

Temper the Wilma talk lol. She was an epic cyclone WELL before the NE turn over the Yucatán. The final product being a mature cyclone with an enlarged major hurricane eye that ravaged the FL peninsula without weakening in any significant way. Would be extremely unlikely to redux her...

With that long wave pattern Track wise sure is possible. This run was 973mb at landfall near For Myers.

[cheezyWXguy]

Temper the Wilma talk lol. She was an epic cyclone WELL before the NE turn over the Yucatán. The final product being a mature cyclone with an enlarged major hurricane eye that ravaged the FL peninsula without weakening in any significant way. Would be extremely unlikely to redux her...

Why wouldn’t this talk be allowed? Aside from just general reminiscence, it’s a decent analog in track, pattern, and date. Despite the highest MPI and OHC values in the basin existing where this is projected to form, I haven’t seen a single post projecting that intensity, because no one has thought it reasonable to do so.

[Ubuntwo]

Temper the Wilma talk lol. She was an epic cyclone WELL before the NE turn over the Yucatán. The final product being a mature cyclone with an enlarged major hurricane eye that ravaged the FL peninsula without weakening in any significant way. Would be extremely unlikely to redux her...

Why wouldn’t this talk be allowed? Aside from just general reminiscence, it’s a decent analog in track, pattern, and date. Despite the highest MPI and OHC values in the basin existing where this is projected to form, I haven’t seen a single post projecting that intensity, because no one has thought it reasonable to do so.

Since it's such a common track/pattern this time of year anyways:

There are dozens of suitable analogs, so it seems inappropriate to use the most extreme one?

[cheezyWXguy]

Temper the Wilma talk lol. She was an epic cyclone WELL before the NE turn over the Yucatán. The final product being a mature cyclone with an enlarged major hurricane eye that ravaged the FL peninsula without weakening in any significant way. Would be extremely unlikely to redux her...

Why wouldn’t this talk be allowed? Aside from just general reminiscence, it’s a decent analog in track, pattern, and date. Despite the highest MPI and OHC values in the basin existing where this is projected to form, I haven’t seen a single post projecting that intensity, because no one has thought it reasonable to do so.

Since it's such a common track/pattern this time of year anyways:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/october.gif
There are dozens of suitable analogs, so it seems inappropriate to use the most extreme one?

If I remember correctly it’s the most recent example as well. At least one of them. If it fits, it fits. Considering no one has made a comparison to intensity, what is inappropriate about this?

[toad strangler]

Why wouldn’t this talk be allowed? Aside from just general reminiscence, it’s a decent analog in track, pattern, and date. Despite the highest MPI and OHC values in the basin existing where this is projected to form, I haven’t seen a single post projecting that intensity, because no one has thought it reasonable to do so.

Since it's such a common track/pattern this time of year anyways:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/october.gif
There are dozens of suitable analogs, so it seems inappropriate to use the most extreme one?

If I remember correctly it’s the most recent example as well. At least one of them. If it fits, it fits. Considering no one has made a comparison to intensity, what is inappropriate about this?

I never said it wasn't allowed. YOU DID. It is my opinion that a Wilma type storm is a once in a lifetime IF THAT event. The track is climo backed for October for sure but NOT the strength. Good luck man ...

[Ubuntwo]

Why wouldn’t this talk be allowed? Aside from just general reminiscence, it’s a decent analog in track, pattern, and date. Despite the highest MPI and OHC values in the basin existing where this is projected to form, I haven’t seen a single post projecting that intensity, because no one has thought it reasonable to do so.

Since it's such a common track/pattern this time of year anyways:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/october.gif
There are dozens of suitable analogs, so it seems inappropriate to use the most extreme one?

If I remember correctly it’s the most recent example as well. At least one of them. If it fits, it fits. Considering no one has made a comparison to intensity, what is inappropriate about this?

If you're just going off track + time of year, Michael is quite close as well with several runs that far north. In terms of mode of genesis neither storm is an appropriate analog as this is wave-borne, not from a CAG.

[cheezyWXguy]

Since it's such a common track/pattern this time of year anyways:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/october.gif
There are dozens of suitable analogs, so it seems inappropriate to use the most extreme one?

If I remember correctly it’s the most recent example as well. At least one of them. If it fits, it fits. Considering no one has made a comparison to intensity, what is inappropriate about this?

If you're just going off track + time of year, Michael is quite close as well with several runs that far north. In terms of mode of genesis neither storm is an appropriate analog as this is wave-borne, not from a CAG.

This is the kind of discussion I was looking for. I didn’t realize Wilma was of purely CAG origin, I thought it was a complex wave interaction, but after looking it up, you are right. This is a valid reason to consider Wilma as an invalid analog.