2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

Is that a potential TC genesis in the W Caribbean on the 240 of the 12Z Euro?

https://i.imgur.com/XKSwTPq.png

Edit: It isn't far from a big 200 mb high:

https://i.imgur.com/sDrZElj.png

Yep! Perhaps coming around.

12z EPS significantly more active than 00z or 12z yesterday. I'm not sure but it looks to me to be the most active ECMWF ensemble run yet on these potential system(s).

Absolutely this EPS run is easily the most active yet, especially for 10/7-12.



Edit: I count ~30% of the 51 members that go sub 1000 mb vs the highest on any prior run being closer to 22%.

They appear to be centering genesis chances around 10/6-7.

[SFLcane]

GFS-P with development @90hrs...

[TheStormExpert]

As the GEFS (posted by Gatorcane) shows we could easily have something form and totally miss the US to the south and east (like a Michelle 2001 set up).

Going by climatology, I’m willing to conclude that if a strong system were to form, it would most likely traverse Cuba and miss Florida to its east. A stronger system would be more likely to deviate eastward as it feels the influence of a potent mid-level trough. Of all the major hurricanes that a) formed in the W Caribbean in October and b) struck peninsular Florida, only one—King ‘50 (115 knots / 955 mb)—struck the state as a Category-4+ hurricane. All the others were mid-range Cat-3 hurricanes (≤105 knots) or weaker at landfall. I’m excluding Michael because a) it struck the Panhandle and b) was exceptional. Of course, at this stage I’m still rather bearish on the prospects of a potent system, so I’ll need to see another few days’ trends before “pulling the trigger,” so to speak. At this stage I think something will most likely develop during the first week of October, but is probably destined to only reach TS or low-end hurricane status at best. I think Florida is likely to be spared of Cat-4+ hits for the rest of the year, but Cuba and the Bahamas are certainly vulnerable.

Why are you always so confident Florida will be spared?

At least living here in SE Florida we have been GREATLY spared by MANY close calls in just the recent 4-5 seasons. I’m not letting my guard down but it’s as if there’s a protective hurricane shield over SE Florida especially preventing metropolitan areas of West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami from seeing sustained hurricane winds.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS-P with development @90hrs...

https://i.imgur.com/bTkk1fL.gif

This model is overhyping it in my honest opinion.

[boca]

Going by climatology, I’m willing to conclude that if a strong system were to form, it would most likely traverse Cuba and miss Florida to its east. A stronger system would be more likely to deviate eastward as it feels the influence of a potent mid-level trough. Of all the major hurricanes that a) formed in the W Caribbean in October and b) struck peninsular Florida, only one—King ‘50 (115 knots / 955 mb)—struck the state as a Category-4+ hurricane. All the others were mid-range Cat-3 hurricanes (≤105 knots) or weaker at landfall. I’m excluding Michael because a) it struck the Panhandle and b) was exceptional. Of course, at this stage I’m still rather bearish on the prospects of a potent system, so I’ll need to see another few days’ trends before “pulling the trigger,” so to speak. At this stage I think something will most likely develop during the first week of October, but is probably destined to only reach TS or low-end hurricane status at best. I think Florida is likely to be spared of Cat-4+ hits for the rest of the year, but Cuba and the Bahamas are certainly vulnerable.

Why are you always so confident Florida will be spared?

At least living here in SE Florida we have been GREATLY spared by MANY close calls in just the recent 4-5 seasons. I’m not letting my guard down but it’s as if there’s a protective hurricane shield over SE Florida especially preventing metropolitan areas of West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami from seeing sustained hurricane winds.

Storm Expert I have been thinking about what you just posted because as a joke I said that yesterday and it’s amazing how many storms just missed us especially being under a hurricane warming and getting a few showers and a 15mph wind.

[TheStormExpert]

Yep! Perhaps coming around.

12z EPS significantly more active than 00z or 12z yesterday. I'm not sure but it looks to me to be the most active ECMWF ensemble run yet on these potential system(s).

Absolutely this EPS run is easily the most active yet, especially for 10/7-12.

https://i.imgur.com/c0YmNA3.png

Edit: I count ~30% of the 51 members that go sub 1000 mb vs the highest on any prior run being closer to 22%.

They appear to be centering genesis chances around 10/6-7.

What’s the direction of approach? As it seems most miss Florida to the south.

[ronjon]

I would think with increasing model support NHC would start mentioning this area in the western Caribbean in their 5 day TWO. At least a yellow circle with perhaps 20% in the 5 day.

[TheStormExpert]

Why are you always so confident Florida will be spared?

At least living here in SE Florida we have been GREATLY spared by MANY close calls in just the recent 4-5 seasons. I’m not letting my guard down but it’s as if there’s a protective hurricane shield over SE Florida especially preventing metropolitan areas of West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami from seeing sustained hurricane winds.

Storm Expert I have been thinking about what you just posted because as a joke I said that yesterday and it’s amazing how many storms just missed us especially being under a hurricane warming and getting a few showers and a 15mph wind.

Well Irma was probably was the hardest blow with no doubt considering we were on the right side of her, but even then folks in metropolitan SE Florida only got hurricane force gusts. I’ll never forget losing power for a day or two even with sustained winds being a TS force.

[LarryWx]

There have been ~12 Oct major H landfalls on FL (that number debatable as some have only 10-11) since 1851 and these are the dates of genesis:

9/20, 9/25, 9/27*, 10/3, 10/3, 10/6, 10/6, 10/8*, 10/8*, 10/13, 10/15, 10/19

Note that the 12Z EPS has most of its geneses 10/6-8 fwiw.

Note that both of the 10/8 geneses were during analog years based on ENSO (weak to moderate La Nina following a weak to moderate El Nino):

1) 1906 FL Keys and Miami H that also made landfall on far SE FL on 10/18 as a cat 3 while moving NE

2) Isbell of 1964, which was a cat 3 that affected the Keys and later far SW FL on 10/14 while moving NE though it was weakening. It actually is debatable as to whether or not this landfalled on any of the Keys as a cat 3, but I'll assume it did for this analysis.

[LarryWx]

12z EPS significantly more active than 00z or 12z yesterday. I'm not sure but it looks to me to be the most active ECMWF ensemble run yet on these potential system(s).

Absolutely this EPS run is easily the most active yet, especially for 10/7-12.

https://i.imgur.com/c0YmNA3.png

Edit: I count ~30% of the 51 members that go sub 1000 mb vs the highest on any prior run being closer to 22%.

They appear to be centering genesis chances around 10/6-7.

What’s the direction of approach? As it seems most miss Florida to the south.

4 members hit FL as a H: you see one there at 288 in far S FL and then the one N of W Cuba moves N into SW FL. Later one skims Cape Canaveral moving NNW and one hits Tampa from the S.

[blp]

Euro ENS definitely more busy and also seems to show the two systems similar to GFS P very interesting. First one not to much support but the second one has lots of support.

[aspen]

Euro ENS definitely more busy and also seems to show the two systems similar to GFS P very interesting. First one not to much support but the second one has lots of support.

https://i.ibb.co/M2ybhND/59598546.gif

There’s also even more support for that late MDR system. If all of those develop, that’ll be Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon in the first ten days of October, with plenty of time for 2020 to tie or surpass 2005’s NS total.

[SFLcane]

[blp]

Did anybody see how the 12z GFS-P ended up with the second system at 924. That is some scary potential and not surprising considering that area is more than primed.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/jYbbBS7.gif

Welcome to the Caribbean Mr. Wave

[aspen]

Did anybody see how the 12z GFS-P ended up with the second system at 924. That is some scary potential and not surprising considering that area is more than primed.

https://i.ibb.co/synH5n8/gfsp-mslp-wind-watl-65.png

That’s actually a third system. The first forms between Cuba and Jamaica before heading into Florida, the second goes north from the Caribbean into the Bahamas, and leftover vorticity from the broad low that included System 2 becomes this System 3. For now, it looks like a ghost spawned by excess vorticity in the 270+ hr time frame.

[StPeteMike]

So at this point, is it just timing of genesis and how quick it strengthens when considering landfall point?

I know, it’s too soon to discuss when we don’t even have much of a system at the moment. Just want to discuss the factors on direction besides the apparent trough/front.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z gfs is a tad ne of the 12z through hour 108, just enough to miss Honduras

[StAuggy]

https://imgur.com/gallery/pbHjqkr

Ascat pass over wave axis

[cheezyWXguy]

Woah, pretty rapid strengthening between hours 120-138. 1000mb to 980mb in that timeframe. Quite a change.