2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

Woah, pretty rapid strengthening between hours 120-138. 1000mb to 980mb in that timeframe. Quite a change.

It’s also trending north and east in the western Caribbean, any farther east and we possibly have a big problem

[otowntiger]

Woah, pretty rapid strengthening between hours 120-138. 1000mb to 980mb in that timeframe. Quite a change.

It’s also trending north and east in the western Caribbean, any farther east and we possibly have a big problem

Big problem, in that it misses FL to the south and East?

[aspen]

18z GFS: Gamma forms at 96 hours and moves NW, slowing down as it approaches the Yucatán and making landfall at 156 hours. It has a rather small circulation and tracks over 30-31C waters for two and a half days, so in this run, it is prone to RI.

[cheezyWXguy]

Woah, pretty rapid strengthening between hours 120-138. 1000mb to 980mb in that timeframe. Quite a change.

It’s also trending north and east in the western Caribbean, any farther east and we possibly have a big problem

Big problem, in that it misses FL to the south and East?

Big problem, in that it misses land interaction with Central America and has time to get its act together over the warmest waters in the basin

[Spacecoast]

FWIW:
Latest NAVGEM now shows no sign of 1st (10/3) system developing system south of mid-Cuba.

[boca]

I think the Florida panhandle to New Orleans is in play too it seems to be the hot spot of 2020.

[Hurricaneman]

Woah, pretty rapid strengthening between hours 120-138. 1000mb to 980mb in that timeframe. Quite a change.

It’s also trending north and east in the western Caribbean, any farther east and we possibly have a big problem

Big problem, in that it misses FL to the south and East?

No as in misses the Yucatán to the east and goes up the channel instead of over the Yucatán, and the steering the GFS depicts is a Florida hit somewhere, I’m thinking the Panhandle. need to keep an eye on this as it could come together quickly once past Jamaica

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s also trending north and east in the western Caribbean, any farther east and we possibly have a big problem

Big problem, in that it misses FL to the south and East?

No as in misses the Yucatán to the east and goes up the channel instead of over the Yucatán, and the steering the GFS depicts is a Florida hit somewhere, need to keep an eye on this as it could come together quickly once past Jamaica

For now, it takes a hit from the Yucatán, but wastes no time restrengthening while stalled on the northern coast. Would be very hard not to get a us landfall out of this from that position. If the ne trend continues on future runs, better watch out.

[boca]

Northern Gulf coast on this run is my prediction.

[SFLcane]

This is no phantom folks!!

Gfs has development now inside 100 hrs.

[toad strangler]

Sits and spins for 3 full days near the Yucatan. I dunno about all that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sits and spins for 3 full days near the Yucatan. I dunno about all that.

It’s possible. The trough lifts out leaving weak steering currents behind. What I’m more skeptical of is the level of strengthening while half-onshore

[boca]

Down to 950 heading towards Florida panhandle.

[Spacecoast]

After 12z NAV dropped 10/3 system, FSU 18z Consensus forecast still has 18z GFS on board for genesis (obviously)...

Hours 0-48 --- 9%
Hours 0-120 --- 41%
Hours 0-168 --- 54% (shown below)

[SFLcane]

Sits and spins for 3 full days near the Yucatan. I dunno about all that.

No way it sits there and spins for 3 days. Now showing intensification in the GOM.

[toad strangler]

This 18Z GFS has taken so long to evolve that it's now out in La La land range. Whatever happens now is for entertainment purposes only.

[GeneratorPower]

This 18Z GFS has taken so long to evolve that it's now out in La La land range. Whatever happens now is for entertainment purposes only.

The overall look is useful. W Car storm in 4-5 days then Yucatán then Florida.

[aspen]

Sits and spins for 3 full days near the Yucatan. I dunno about all that.

No way it sits there and spins for 3 days. Now showing intensification in the GOM.

I guess steering currents could become weak in the 150-180 hour range, but it’s too far out to make any concrete conclusions.

With the GFS and GFS-Para showing development in 4-5 days, and other models on board with at least some development, I think it’s finally time for the NHC to mark the precursor wave for development. Maybe 0/30 or 0/40 at 8pm.

[blp]

SW florida get it. This time.

[toad strangler]

OVER A WEEK from Yucatan landfall to FL in this run. Have to trash this verbatim GFS OP run solution

Let's see the ensembles