2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Spacecoast]

That's an unusual track from the North Yucatan coast to Tampa / Cape Coral.
This is all years, all months, all storms < 996MB...

[Jr0d]

Looking more likely something will form, maybe as early as late this week.

I posted a week ago that this will likely be an issue because I will taking a vacation to the Orlando area around that time frame(Oct 7th-14th). For selfish reasons, I hope it develops quickly and moves out even faster....but knowing how things go it will probably slow to form and slow to move initially.

[SFLcane]

57 I see you!

[GeneratorPower]

TropicalTidbits is down. Anyone have the whole GFS run?

[toad strangler]

That was a Happy Hour 18z GFS run for the ages

[toad strangler]

TropicalTidbits is down. Anyone have the whole GFS run?

Storm stalls and sits over the Central FL peninsula until the end of the run .... similar to the stall over the Yucatan area

[Keldeo1997]

That GFS run is like a Wilma type track except more stalling and slower overall

[SFLcane]

0-20 there you have it.

[toad strangler]

0-20 there you have it.

https://i.postimg.cc/hjfxPdX6/4-E308-D78-F747-4-F4-F-981-D-70-B8171-D3698.jpg

It's definitely thread time now.

[SFLcane]

Blake uses the GEFS.

[cycloneye]

Model runs related to the new NHC area of interest can be posted in the "Possible development in Western Caribbean" thread.

[MetroMike]

SW florida get it. This time.

Central Florida mostly.

[ScottNAtlanta]

0-20 there you have it.

https://i.postimg.cc/hjfxPdX6/4-E308-D78-F747-4-F4-F-981-D-70-B8171-D3698.jpg

It's definitely thread time now.

I saw that latest GFS run and thought...to the Storm2k message board! They are probably half past crazed by now.

[Fancy1001]

I really wish the GFS parallel went past the 384 hour mark, because I really want to see what the model does with that CAT5.

[caneman]

That's an unusual track from the North Yucatan coast to Tampa / Cape Coral.
This is all years, all months, all storms < 996MB...
https://i.ibb.co/1QWbM3d/trackyuc.jpg

This can't be accurate. We in Tampa have been affected by many storms coming off the Yucatan in June and Oct

[eastcoastFL]

That's an unusual track from the North Yucatan coast to Tampa / Cape Coral.
This is all years, all months, all storms < 996MB...
https://i.ibb.co/1QWbM3d/trackyuc.jpg

This map is missing a lot of storms

[FireRat]

That's an unusual track from the North Yucatan coast to Tampa / Cape Coral.
This is all years, all months, all storms < 996MB...
https://i.ibb.co/1QWbM3d/trackyuc.jpg

This map is missing a lot of storms

That's a cool graphic!
The pin should probably be moved to between the Yucatan and Cuba, it would be a much different story. Also for a little more accuracy, keep it October vs all other months IMO.

[aspen]

The GFS, GFS-Para, and CMC all develop that second Caribbean system in 7-10 days, and eventually get it into the Gulf. The CMC has two potential TCs in the MDR on October 9th, while the Magical Fantasy Land GFS has 4 simultaneously active TCs (Panhandle, NE of Bahamas, MDR, and subtropical Atlantic), and the GFS-Para has one hurricane in the Gulf and MDR.

[St0rmTh0r]

The GFS, GFS-Para, and CMC all develop that second Caribbean system in 7-10 days, and eventually get it into the Gulf. The CMC has two potential TCs in the MDR on October 9th, while the Magical Fantasy Land GFS has 4 simultaneously active TCs (Panhandle, NE of Bahamas, MDR, and subtropical Atlantic), and the GFS-Para has one hurricane in the Gulf and MDR.

Looks like October will be quite active as expected. MDR not shut down yet.

[aspen]

The GFS, GFS-Para, and CMC all develop that second Caribbean system in 7-10 days, and eventually get it into the Gulf. The CMC has two potential TCs in the MDR on October 9th, while the Magical Fantasy Land GFS has 4 simultaneously active TCs (Panhandle, NE of Bahamas, MDR, and subtropical Atlantic), and the GFS-Para has one hurricane in the Gulf and MDR.

Looks like October will be quite active as expected. MDR not shut down yet.

I do think we’ll get at least one late-season MDR system, because it’s abnormally warm for this time of year — nearly +0.8C above average! Assuming a wave can find a sweet spot to develop in, I don’t see why we couldn’t see something like Nadine ‘18.