Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[SFLcane]

Up to 30% in 5 days.



788
ABNT20 KNHC 281138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Some gradual development of the
disturbance will be possible thereafter while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[SFLcane]

Overnight Gfs-p

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS ensembles...quite active

[SFLcane]

Extended range overnight ICON.

[boca]

Why is the GFS and GFS Para so far off in their solutions?

[SFLcane]

Why is the GFS and GFS Para so far off in their solutions?

What’s off?

They both show an intensifying cyclone in the NW Caribbean Sea. Track and intensity obviously sketchy this far out.

[boca]

I was taking about the track,GFS off of Texas and Para off west of Tampa.

[AutoPenalti]

Extended range overnight ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/iDzBhZF.gif

Very sheared, much like a June system.

[SFLcane]

Extended range overnight ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/iDzBhZF.gif

Very sheared, much like a June system.

 https://twitter.com/thestevecop/status/1310266734423793665

[TheStormExpert]

Can I post the Nogaps? It sure is bullish

https://i.postimg.cc/zv18Y8n6/2-DEA3951-E9-F9-444-A-A781-E1-B59890-AA33.jpg

When isn’t it bullish!?

Then again the NOGAPS and the GFS-Para are the only ones bullish.

[TheStormExpert]

Why is the GFS and GFS Para so far off in their solutions?

What’s off?

They both show an intensifying cyclone in the NW Caribbean Sea. Track and intensity obviously sketchy this far out.

The GFS-Para shows a much stronger storm then the GFS.

[SFLcane]

06z para with development starting as early as late this week.

[StAuggy]

06z para with development starting as early as late this week.

https://i.imgur.com/NZeISOd.gif

That has genesis much further north and east. Different mechanism than the tropical wave?

[otowntiger]

Extended range overnight ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/iDzBhZF.gif

Very sheared, much like a June system.

Or like an October system. Sheared systems in October are more common, I believe, than major storms.

[AutoPenalti]

06z para with development starting as early as late this week.

https://i.imgur.com/NZeISOd.gif

That's pretty much within the 5 day window...

[Shell Mound]

Extended range overnight ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/iDzBhZF.gif

Very sheared, much like a June system.

Or like an October system. Sheared systems in October are more common, I believe, than major storms.

Yes, but one would expect more favourable conditions during La Niña. Yet most ensemble members still show a fairly weak, tilted system.

[SFLcane]

For Florida This is why we watch the Caribbean in October.

[wxman57]

I see lots and lots of strong westerly wind shear across the central and northern Gulf over the coming week. That would indicate anything moving into the southern Gulf would experience the shear and would likely track NE, either toward Florida or across Cuba toward the Bahamas. Typical track this time of year. That's a fairly strong cold front moving out across the Gulf today. I don't see this being a threat to TX or LA, and likely MS or AL Note that I do have vacation days scheduled this week. The tropics have been informed.

[SFLcane]

I see lots and lots of strong westerly wind shear across the central and northern Gulf over the coming week. That would indicate anything moving into the southern Gulf would experience the shear and would likely track NE, either toward Florida or across Cuba toward the Bahamas. Typical track this time of year. That's a fairly strong cold front moving out across the Gulf today. I don't see this being a threat to TX or LA, and likely MS or AL Note that I do have vacation days scheduled this week. The tropics have been informed.

So we watch in Florida.

[Shell Mound]

For Florida This is why we watch the Caribbean in October.

https://i.imgur.com/acW29OP.gif

I still see too much shear for this to be much of a concern. I expect development and am not precluding a threat to peninsular Florida, but the setup indicates very strong shear in place, as the precipitation field illustrates. There is no southern quadrant to speak of: all the convection is displaced to the eastern side of the centre. Anything that forms would likely attain minimal hurricane status at most, given that the vectors are perpendicular rather than parallel to the path of the system. A sloppy Cat-1 or even a low-end Cat-2 heading into the Everglades National Park is nothing to “write home about,” especially given all the hype about how 2020 was going to bring Cat-5s into Houston and/or Miami. I am in total agreement with wxman57 on this system. A “threat” to Florida it will be, certainly, if you stretch the definition of a “threat,” given that any potential system will be disorganised and moving quickly, reducing the potential for heavy rainfall.