Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[TheStormExpert]

I see lots and lots of strong westerly wind shear across the central and northern Gulf over the coming week. That would indicate anything moving into the southern Gulf would experience the shear and would likely track NE, either toward Florida or across Cuba toward the Bahamas. Typical track this time of year. That's a fairly strong cold front moving out across the Gulf today. I don't see this being a threat to TX or LA, and likely MS or AL Note that I do have vacation days scheduled this week. The tropics have been informed.

So it sounds to me that you’re not too bullish on anything significant since there will be shear if and when this enters the Gulf?

[TheStormExpert]

For Florida This is why we watch the Caribbean in October.

https://i.imgur.com/acW29OP.gif

I still see too much shear for this to be much of a concern. I expect development and am not precluding a threat to peninsular Florida, but the setup indicates very strong shear in place, as the precipitation field illustrates. There is no southern quadrant to speak of: all the convection is displaced to the eastern side of the centre. Anything that forms would likely attain minimal hurricane status at most, given that the vectors are perpendicular rather than parallel to the path of the system. A sloppy Cat-1 or even a low-end Cat-2 heading into the Everglades National Park is nothing to “write home about,” especially given all the hype about how 2020 was going to bring Cat-5s into Houston and/or Miami. I am in total agreement with wxman57 on this system. A “threat” to Florida it will be, certainly, if you stretch the definition of a “threat,” given that any potential system will be disorganised and moving quickly, reducing the potential for heavy rainfall.

Same. I’m disregarding the GFS-Para and of course NOGAPS until I see the current-GFS and Euro become much more interested if ever.

That GFS-Para just seems to like to intensify every disturbance that pops up in the Atlantic. Sounds like a familiar old friend?

[aspen]

I’m slightly concerned about the potential for future Gamma to spin up before the models expect it to form. Remember how horrible they did with the genesis of Nana. If it does form quicker than anticipated, like perhaps in 2-3 days instead of 4-5 days, it would have more time over water before hitting Cuba or the Yucatán, whether it takes the GFS-Para track or the GFS/CMC track.

[Shell Mound]

I’m slightly concerned about the potential for future Gamma to spin up before the models expect it to form. Remember how horrible they did with the genesis of Nana. If it does form quicker than anticipated, like perhaps in 2-3 days instead of 4-5 days, it would have more time over water before hitting Cuba or the Yucatán, whether it takes the GFS-Para track or the GFS/CMC track.

Even if it were somehow able to “spin up” into a major hurricane early on, which I don’t expect, it would still weaken to Cat-1/-2 status in the GoM due to shear. Wilma, like Michael, was able to maintain or even augment its intensity because it was moving parallel to the vectors, whereas in this case the vectors are expected to be perpendicular to the forward motion of the system. A better analog for this system might be Isbell ‘64, which briefly but quickly intensified near western Cuba, then weakened to a disheveled Cat-2 just before landfall in Southwest Florida. It delivered minimal impacts to South Florida; in fact, hurricane-spawned tornadoes produced most of the damage. According to reports, Isbell moved quickly, produced minimal rainfall, generated low tides, and lacked a well-defined southern eyewall, owing to shear and mid-level dry air. In 1964, an upper low was present very close to Isbell, along with a strong surface cold front, and models show a similar setup for this potential system.

[gatorcane]

Saved GFS parallel loop. Could you imagine if the Euro and current GFS were showing something similar?

[Loveweather12]

So you’re saying, it’s not a concern? Nothing might not form then? No need to watch?
I was wondering when I should be concern about this.

For Florida This is why we watch the Caribbean in October.

https://i.imgur.com/acW29OP.gif

I still see too much shear for this to be much of a concern. I expect development and am not precluding a threat to peninsular Florida, but the setup indicates very strong shear in place, as the precipitation field illustrates. There is no southern quadrant to speak of: all the convection is displaced to the eastern side of the centre. Anything that forms would likely attain minimal hurricane status at most, given that the vectors are perpendicular rather than parallel to the path of the system. A sloppy Cat-1 or even a low-end Cat-2 heading into the Everglades National Park is nothing to “write home about,” especially given all the hype about how 2020 was going to bring Cat-5s into Houston and/or Miami. I am in total agreement with wxman57 on this system. A “threat” to Florida it will be, certainly, if you stretch the definition of a “threat,” given that any potential system will be disorganised and moving quickly, reducing the potential for heavy rainfall.

[cp79]

I’m slightly concerned about the potential for future Gamma to spin up before the models expect it to form. Remember how horrible they did with the genesis of Nana. If it does form quicker than anticipated, like perhaps in 2-3 days instead of 4-5 days, it would have more time over water before hitting Cuba or the Yucatán, whether it takes the GFS-Para track or the GFS/CMC track.

Models are all in pretty good agreement that it will spin up at the tail of the front once it moves far enough south and away from the shear. It looks like it will merge with other moisture already in the Caribbean. I do think something will spin up down the there bc it is common this time of year, especially in busy seasons. Very Wilma-like.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jpkassell/status/1310570024646709248

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1310575030703714305

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/jpkassell/status/1310570024646709248?

Key takeaway: the vast majority of the EPS members do not even go deeper than ~1000 mb, so they are showing a much weaker TC than the GFS-P.

[toad strangler]

For Florida This is why we watch the Caribbean in October.

https://i.imgur.com/acW29OP.gif

I still see too much shear for this to be much of a concern. I expect development and am not precluding a threat to peninsular Florida, but the setup indicates very strong shear in place, as the precipitation field illustrates. There is no southern quadrant to speak of: all the convection is displaced to the eastern side of the centre. Anything that forms would likely attain minimal hurricane status at most, given that the vectors are perpendicular rather than parallel to the path of the system. A sloppy Cat-1 or even a low-end Cat-2 heading into the Everglades National Park is nothing to “write home about,” especially given all the hype about how 2020 was going to bring Cat-5s into Houston and/or Miami. I am in total agreement with wxman57 on this system. A “threat” to Florida it will be, certainly, if you stretch the definition of a “threat,” given that any potential system will be disorganised and moving quickly, reducing the potential for heavy rainfall.

Oh my Lord where do you come up with this stuff? Cat5 talk? Why are you SO hung up on this myth that there are those of us expecting a strong system here?

[robbielyn]

So you’re saying, it’s not a concern? Nothing might not form then? No need to watch?
I was wondering when I should be concern about this.

For Florida This is why we watch the Caribbean in October.

https://i.imgur.com/acW29OP.gif

I still see too much shear for this to be much of a concern. I expect development and am not precluding a threat to peninsular Florida, but the setup indicates very strong shear in place, as the precipitation field illustrates. There is no southern quadrant to speak of: all the convection is displaced to the eastern side of the centre. Anything that forms would likely attain minimal hurricane status at most, given that the vectors are perpendicular rather than parallel to the path of the system. A sloppy Cat-1 or even a low-end Cat-2 heading into the Everglades National Park is nothing to “write home about,” especially given all the hype about how 2020 was going to bring Cat-5s into Houston and/or Miami. I am in total agreement with wxman57 on this system. A “threat” to Florida it will be, certainly, if you stretch the definition of a “threat,” given that any potential system will be disorganised and moving quickly, reducing the potential for heavy rainfall.

Chances are no nothing to be concerned about. But that doesn't mean you don't keep an eye on it. 2020 has been strange. Most of these storms hit panhandle, sw fl or slide east towards bahamas. And usually if florida is in its sights at the get go then it goes elsewhere but that is not a 100% guarantee. So be ready keep an eye and hope for the best.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/jpkassell/status/1310570024646709248?

Key takeaway: the vast majority of the EPS members do not even go deeper than ~1000 mb, so they are showing a much weaker TC than the GFS-P.

The EPS and the Euro have been nothing sort of terrible this season. The euro at times this yr did not see
a tc until it’s formed. Conditions look rather favorable in the NW Caribbean Sea and as wxman57 said this is not likely to get into the GOM with the trof pattern awaiting. All will depend on we’re development takes place lots of variables let’s not start down playing a threat that has not even developed.

[SFLcane]

Ding ding ding.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1310579513575854080

[Nimbus]

For Florida This is why we watch the Caribbean in October.

https://i.imgur.com/acW29OP.gif

I still see too much shear for this to be much of a concern. I expect development and am not precluding a threat to peninsular Florida, but the setup indicates very strong shear in place, as the precipitation field illustrates. There is no southern quadrant to speak of: all the convection is displaced to the eastern side of the centre. Anything that forms would likely attain minimal hurricane status at most, given that the vectors are perpendicular rather than parallel to the path of the system. A sloppy Cat-1 or even a low-end Cat-2 heading into the Everglades National Park is nothing to “write home about,” especially given all the hype about how 2020 was going to bring Cat-5s into Houston and/or Miami. I am in total agreement with wxman57 on this system. A “threat” to Florida it will be, certainly, if you stretch the definition of a “threat,” given that any potential system will be disorganised and moving quickly, reducing the potential for heavy rainfall.

Oh my Lord where do you come up with this stuff? Cat5 talk? Why are you SO hung up on this myth that there are those of us expecting a strong system here?

Its usually the HWRF that you would expect to go Mitch.

They must have tweaked the AI in the GFS.
18Z was gambling in havana, next run its hiding in honduras?

[Aric Dunn]

Seriously people.. with the shear debate.. we have been through this soo many times. soo many variables.. timing, tilt to the trough, steering, etc.

1. Shear now in the Gulf does not equal Shear in the gulf in 5 plus days..

2. the NE motion in the eastern gulf( assuming that motion happens) can and often does this time of year, depending on angle, can lead to enhanced upper divergence and allow for significant deepening.

3. First wave is unlikely to head to western or northern Gulf do to timing. But assuimng we want to believe any of the solutions with the second wave... then the timing of that wave and potenial develop would allow for a western Gulf threat.

[tomatkins]

https://twitter.com/jpkassell/status/1310570024646709248?

I guess the ridge over the eastern Atlatnic breaks down faster in these model runs. The earlier runs had the wave off of Africa taking a more southern route (although presumably eventually recurving). This one has it basically recurving immediately on exiting the coast.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1310582989747879937

[SFLcane]

It’s a classic October track for SFL. History does repeat itself

[DestinHurricane]

Some good analogs for this potential system:

Wilma 2005
Isbell 1964
1948 Miami hurricane
1926 Havana-Bermuda hurricane
1921 Tampa bay hurricane

A cat 2 or 3 into SWFL, south tip of Florida, or possibly Tampa area seems like the favored solution here based on climo as well as the setup.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map= ... p0cnVlfQ==