Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[eastcoastFL]

Unless you call the GFS-Para and the NAVGEM trustworthy models then model support is limited for much if any development from this area. Maybe we will squeeze out a weak sheared/lopsided TS but nothing significant in my honest opinion.

Still can't rule out a major in this region at some point between the next two months but I doubt this is going to be that major.

My biggest concerns for Florida this season is from W. Caribbean in October.

[TheStormExpert]

Unless you call the GFS-Para and the NAVGEM trustworthy models then model support is limited for much if any development from this area. Maybe we will squeeze out a weak sheared/lopsided TS but nothing significant in my honest opinion.

Still can't rule out a major in this region at some point between the next two months but I doubt this is going to be that major.

My biggest concerns for Florida this season is from W. Caribbean in October.

Same, but we can get multiple systems form in that region in October alone. The first might not be the worst.

[Aric Dunn]

Right in que..

https://twitter.com/wxpatel/status/1310594937302507524?

Well there you go.. lol


and where does everyone get all these Twitter post from lol. and who are half these people..

I cant stand twitter...

Everyone on Twitter is an “amateur expert” lol.

A question to one or your other posts regarding shear. Didn’t the nhc initially botch the intensity forecast on Michael due to shear when in reality the Shear ended up helping Micheal with ventilation which caused continued RI as he trekked north?

Not sure.. but its like people post twitter stuff like its some sort of absolute..


As for the NHC Michael forecast.

The NHC will always do a blend of the models unless there is some obvious feature the models are missing.

So the models early on showed a weak sheared system. NHC quickly corrected and did well on Michael.

perfect example of why you cant rely on shear forecasts from models... expecially in complex situations.

[robbielyn]

Right in que..

https://twitter.com/wxpatel/status/1310594937302507524?

Well there you go.. lol


and where does everyone get all these Twitter post from lol. and who are half these people..

I cant stand twitter...

Everyone on Twitter is an “amateur expert” lol.
I don't know about that. I follow bernie rayno, levi cowan, Derek Ortt, Josh Morgerman, Reed Timmer(I know his expertise is more with tornadoes but still)Philippe Papin, Mark Sudduth, Philip Klotzbach.

A question to one or your other posts regarding shear. Didn’t the nhc initially botch the intensity forecast on Michael due to shear when in reality the Shear ended up helping Micheal with ventilation which caused continued RI as he trekked north?

[robbielyn]

I think based on this latest cold front which is dipping pretty far south an anomaly, this late sept/early october, usually not this potent, could definitely, should another one be just as potent and coincide with the next TC, push this to the east of florida or at least sw fl vs west central florida. We here in the northern counties of tampabay, going to see some 50's at night. So can't wait.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/dcareawx/status/1310603109140496385

[ElectricStorm]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/dcareawx/status/1310603109140496385?

If something does indeed develop in those upcoming conditions, why are many people saying this will only be a weak, sheared system? Is there something that would prevent strengthening that I don't know about? Or is it just what the models were showing?

[otowntiger]

This recent convective burst with the wave has begun to really sharpen the axis. some southerly inlow is now noted with more NE winds as well. decent mid level broad rotation too. also a bit north of the GFS in terms of the wave axis being mostly over South America on the GFS until it reaches western cariib.

so with it being fully over water allowing vorticity to slowly increase before reaching the western carrib.... tends to point towards faster development.

Right in que..

https://twitter.com/wxpatel/status/1310594937302507524?

Well there you go.. lol


and where does everyone get all these Twitter post from lol. and who are half these people..

I cant stand twitter...

good question, and me too!

[ClarCari]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/dcareawx/status/1310603109140496385?

If something does indeed develop in those upcoming conditions, why are many people saying this will only be a weak, sheared system? Is there something that would prevent strengthening that I don't know about? Or is it just what the models were showing?

Some here are reading wayyyy toooo much into the how far low the cold front will dip and how much shear will happen as a result, and therefor how strong these storms can get and make landfall, etc. just based off models alone.
The cold front is coming and will most likely bring conditions not too favorable in the northern gulf, but some people are reading way too much into that despite the cold front not happening yet and us just now currently having a developing tropical wave.
Bottom Line:
1. Right now we have a tropical wave.
2. We have a cold front soon.
3. We haven’t the faintest idea what those two are gonna do when they interact so hold your horses guys.

[ElectricStorm]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/dcareawx/status/1310603109140496385?

If something does indeed develop in those upcoming conditions, why are many people saying this will only be a weak, sheared system? Is there something that would prevent strengthening that I don't know about? Or is it just what the models were showing?

Some here are reading wayyyy toooo much into the how far low the cold front will dip and how much shear will happen as a result, and therefor how strong these storms can get and make landfall, etc. just based off models alone.
The cold front is coming and will most likely bring conditions not too favorable in the northern gulf, but some people are reading way too much into that despite the cold front not happening yet and us just now currently having a developing tropical wave.

Yeah I know it's still way to soon to know for sure but to me it seems like if it can develop quicker it could have a chance to bomb out before being hit by the shear. But we'll see

[SFLcane]

12z GFS into the Yucatán with not much development.

[AutoPenalti]

12z GFS into the Yucatán with not much development.

Oh Jesus, here we go lol...

[toad strangler]

12z GFS doing a 00Z last night redux

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS doing a 00Z last night redux

Ugh, not even going to look at it this time. Last night was a headache

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be on an island of its own

[SFLcane]

Sure producing some convection today.

[toad strangler]

12Z CMC @162 hrs is E of the Yucatan and developing

[toad strangler]

12Z CMC just pulled a GFS and is now W of the Yucatan at 204hrs

[SFLcane]

12Z CMC @162 hrs is E of the Yucatan and developing

Na buried goes into the BOC. The GFS-P is all alone right now

[Aric Dunn]

12Z CMC just pulled a GFS and is now W of the Yucatan at 204hrs

It is all due to the first wave, 2nd wave and a vorticity in the east pac interacting..

the 2nd wave racing that far west that fast is unlikely. but who knows its 2020.