Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[eastcoastFL]

I think based on this latest cold front which is dipping pretty far south an anomaly, this late sept/early october, usually not this potent, could definitely, should another one be just as potent and coincide with the next TC, push this to the east of florida or at least sw fl vs west central florida. We here in the northern counties of tampabay, going to see some 50's at night. So can't wait.

I recall after Wilma flew through our area she left behind destruction and cold air. It was unusually cold when we came out of our bunkers after Wilma but that was later in October also. It was closer to Halloween.

[boca]

This Caribbean storm that is predicted to form looks like its heading to the BOC by the GFS and CMC and not a Florida issue.Will wait on future model runs.

[Loveweather12]

That’s not what I’ve been hearing. I’ve been hearing troughs troughs etc.
we should also be careful not put blank statements out like that. Especially when nothing has formed.

This Caribbean storm that is predicted to form looks like its heading to the BOC by the GFS and CMC and not a Florida issue.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1310619592159621122

[weeniepatrol]

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1310620923221901313

[boca]

That’s not what I’ve been hearing. I’ve been hearing troughs troughs etc.
we should also be careful not put blank statements out like that. Especially when nothing has formed.

This Caribbean storm that is predicted to form looks like its heading to the BOC by the GFS and CMC and not a Florida issue.

I did add will wait on future model runs.

[Hurricaneman]

looks to be coming together south of Puerto Rico

[boca]

looks to be coming together south of Puerto Rico

I agree.

[Hurricaneman]

looks to be coming together south of Puerto Rico

I agree.

and from what i can tell no model has this solution with vorticity south of Puerto Rico so it may be a case of garbage in garbage out so it may take a few more model runs before a final solution

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1310621842852532224

[SFLcane]

looks to be coming together south of Puerto Rico

[TheProfessor]

When the models seem perplexing in the mid to long range, see what they're doing in the short range first and see how it's currently playing out with observations. Low level vorticity is faint, but becoming stronger just north of Venezuela, the thing to watch is to see if the thunderstorms further north can persist and focus the energy more to the north. If that happens, then the CMC and GFS solutions need to be thrown out as they will be too far south with the tropical wave and have too much land interaction early on. However, if the thunderstorms collapse and we see that energy stay closer to the coast, the GFS and CMC could be on to something. The next 18-24 hours should be all that is needed to get a grasp on which solution seems more likely.

[SFLcane]

12z GEFS with a strong signal.

[boca]

When the models seem perplexing in the mid to long range, see what they're doing in the short range first and see how it's currently playing out with observations. Low level vorticity is faint, but becoming stronger just north of Venezuela, the thing to watch is to see if the thunderstorms further north can persist and focus the energy more to the north. If that happens, then the CMC and GFS solutions need to be thrown out as they will be too far south with the tropical wave and have too much land interaction early on. However, if the thunderstorms collapse and we see that energy stay closer to the coast, the GFS and CMC could be on to something. The next 18-24 hours should be all that is needed to get a grasp on which solution seems more likely.

What about the area south of Puerto Rico?

[wxman57]

I think that the 12Z GFS is much more likely to verify than the 00Z or 06Z runs. Minimal development with no north Gulf threat. Could become a tropical threat to south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas as a sheared system.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS has little to no development with the 12z GEFS killing in in a week in the Eastern Gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

I think that the 12Z GFS is much more likely to verify than the 00Z or 06Z runs. Minimal development with no north Gulf threat. Could become a tropical threat to south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas as a sheared system.

Same thinking here, a weak sheared/lopsided messy TS. Nothing worth getting excited about for me.

[drezee]

I think that the 12Z GFS is much more likely to verify than the 00Z or 06Z runs. Minimal development with no north Gulf threat. Could become a tropical threat to south Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas as a sheared system.

It may come to pass. I think we have two bullets to dodge out of this pattern. Stay tuned

[TheProfessor]

When the models seem perplexing in the mid to long range, see what they're doing in the short range first and see how it's currently playing out with observations. Low level vorticity is faint, but becoming stronger just north of Venezuela, the thing to watch is to see if the thunderstorms further north can persist and focus the energy more to the north. If that happens, then the CMC and GFS solutions need to be thrown out as they will be too far south with the tropical wave and have too much land interaction early on. However, if the thunderstorms collapse and we see that energy stay closer to the coast, the GFS and CMC could be on to something. The next 18-24 hours should be all that is needed to get a grasp on which solution seems more likely.

What about the area south of Puerto Rico?

Yeah that's what I was talking about. If we see that area persist, we will likely see something form sooner and further northeast.