ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[Blinhart]

I think in the post season analysis they will change a lot of the days that she was Post-Tropical to Sub-Tropical.

[us89]

I think in the post season analysis they will change a lot of the days that she was Post-Tropical to Sub-Tropical.

They might move Paulette's re-formation up by six hours or so, but in order to be subtropical the storm must be completely non-frontal and it has to be generating convection - which it did not do for the vast majority of its extratropical period.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1309901930597175296

[AJC3]

Figured I'd move the thread back into the Active Storms forum (yet again) since it's still out there puffing convection over the center tonight, and there's not much else going on in the Atlantic other than the weak microvort-fest right now...

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1310016684976222208

[ClarCari]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity has increased this evening in association with a
low pressure area, the remnants of Paulette, located about 150
miles south-southwest of the Azores. However, environmental
conditions do not appear to be conducive for re-development into a
tropical cyclone at this time The low is expected to move
erratically over the northeastern Atlantic for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Beven

This is the first time I personally have seen a TWO starting at 0/0. At least they are acknowledging her existence hehe.

[weeniepatrol]

lmao. At the very least we can all agree that this season has been a fascinating one.

But then again, they all are

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Paulette, located about 100 miles south of the
Azores, are producing a few disorganized showers. Upper-level winds
are expected to increase later today and no further development is
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[supercane4867]

No wonder why the NHC gave it a 0% chance of (re)development

[cycloneye]

The third bye.

[JRD]

The attached trough has gotten longer and more sharply curved. The remnant keeps filling, and it's near a cold front, so Post-Paulette would most likely dissipate, if it didn't already. Alternatively it could become extratropical.
https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php

[JRD]

Scratch it. It has actually deepened slightly. The cold front's still gonna be a problem. Seems like the trough is helping Post-Paulette to survive. It's right now a symmetric deeply cold-cored cyclone according to http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/39.html

[tomatkins]

The 12z GFS has the remnant vorticity still around in a week southwest of Bermuda before it finally becomes to weak to track. The 6z GFS-P has it even stronger, trackable to just east of Bermuda on Day 9 before it merges with the remnants of whatever is trying to form in the Caribbean after it goes extratropical.

Not that either scenario seems to be a real development threat, but it lives on for another week it seems.

[aspen]

For the last few days, several of the global models have been showing this little patch of disturbed weather going eastward across the northern Atlantic. I'm using the ICON run because it's a little easier to see. Is this the remnant of Paulette? I won't rule out this trying to develop (again) because it'll be going over a patch of 27-28C SSTs in the next few days.

[edu2703]

C'mon Paulette. Just die already!

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1311428892654215169

[tomatkins]

For the last few days, several of the global models have been showing this little patch of disturbed weather going eastward across the northern Atlantic. I'm using the ICON run because it's a little easier to see. Is this the remnant of Paulette? I won't rule out this trying to develop (again) because it'll be going over a patch of 27-28C SSTs in the next few days.
https://i.imgur.com/DCKEvqr.png
https://i.imgur.com/HP8MkeX.png
https://i.imgur.com/OJIZtVF.png
https://i.imgur.com/ajTt4EW.png
https://i.imgur.com/v3Of8vY.png

Yes. Thats Paulette

[TheStormExpert]

Yes, Paulette is STILL having out there somewhere.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1311434277767315462

[LarryWx]

Yes, Paulette is STILL having out there somewhere.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1311434277767315462

Absolutely amazing! I love stuff like this! Thanks for posting.

[chaser1]

Yes, Paulette is STILL having out there somewhere.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1311434277767315462

Absolutely amazing! I love stuff like this! Thanks for posting.

I swear, Paulette is gonna replace the old Where's Waldo meme

[AJC3]

The Euro still has this low around moving westward north of the Azores on day 10.

Fast forward 10 days ahead. This post from 09/21 aged hilariously well. I may have lost count, but I'm pretty sure this thread has been moved back into the AS forum from the archives THREE times, meaning it's been opened up for discussion a total of FOUR times. This easily has to be a S2K record.



This is about a week old...I'm sure it will be updated, especially if zombie Paulette gets mentioned in an upcoming TWO.