Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[SFLcane]

What Caribbean storm lol.

[northjaxpro]

I am cautiously monitoring this situation. I think we should have a much better idea of how this system evolves within the next 36 -48 hours. Hopefully, we should have a clearer consensus of what materializes in the Western or Northwestern Caribbean as this week progresses.

[cheezyWXguy]

What Caribbean storm lol.

https://i.postimg.cc/XqQxpBW5/F6-C37813-86-B3-4-E89-9-CF6-B37-A932463-B6.jpg

With a signal that weak, if this storm does form, it would be the nail in the coffin for my faith in the eps at predicting cyclogenesis this season. Hard to go against it since its reputation is generally very high. Weird setup and weird season in general. I can’t recall a single storm this year that’s been a “shoe-in”. Teddy probably.

[AxaltaRacing24]

What Caribbean storm lol.

https://i.postimg.cc/XqQxpBW5/F6-C37813-86-B3-4-E89-9-CF6-B37-A932463-B6.jpg

With a signal that weak, if this storm does form, it would be the nail in the coffin for my faith in the eps at predicting cyclogenesis this season. Hard to go against it since its reputation is generally very high. Weird setup and weird season in general. I can’t recall a single storm this year that’s been a “shoe-in”. Teddy probably.

the models are genesis blind this season. sally wasn't supposed to be there, and hit at like 100mph at that. that's one of several examples this season.

[drezee]

What Caribbean storm lol.

https://i.postimg.cc/XqQxpBW5/F6-C37813-86-B3-4-E89-9-CF6-B37-A932463-B6.jpg

Might I send you a picture of the Euro EPS 120 hours before the landfall of Hurricane Hanna....

[psyclone]

CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day output continues to tilt wetter than normal for peninsular florida implying something coming up from the northwest caribbean. Could be a TC(s) or just some enhanced moisture shearing off or something in between. One thing worth noting is "normal" is now dry over central and northern florida as we are now in the dry season...so even that isn't exactly a strong signal. But it is something and certainly worth monitoring. FWIW the 3 to 4 week outlooks are also tilting wet...probably a nod to the calendar and nina climo...which makes sense.

[aspen]

What Caribbean storm lol.

https://i.postimg.cc/XqQxpBW5/F6-C37813-86-B3-4-E89-9-CF6-B37-A932463-B6.jpg

With a signal that weak, if this storm does form, it would be the nail in the coffin for my faith in the eps at predicting cyclogenesis this season. Hard to go against it since its reputation is generally very high. Weird setup and weird season in general. I can’t recall a single storm this year that’s been a “shoe-in”. Teddy probably.

Isaias, Kyle, Omar, Vicky, Alpha, and Beta were also moderately well detected by the models in advance. The CFS sniffed out Isaias and Beta weeks ahead of genesis, and I think Paulette as well. Still, either the models didn’t forecast development or horribly underestimated peak intensity for much of the season’s storms — Bertha, Dolly, Edouard, Gonzalo, Hanna, Josephine, Laura, Marco, Nana, Sally, and Wilfred.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I literally disappear for a week and come back to find 10 pages of discussion on a storm that may or may not ever exist.

[mpic]

Stupid question but will this cold front and drier weather possibly have a big influence to keep it away from Texas? I have a roof scheduled to be replaced.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe they’ll start decreasing development chances at 8pm if the GFS and GEFS even become less enthusiastic.

That or the models are screwing with our minds YET again.

[TheStormExpert]

Stupid question but will this cold front and drier weather possibly have a big influence to keep it away from Texas? I have a roof scheduled to be replaced.

Texas is closed from seeing anymore land falling TC’s in my opinion. Usually after late-September cold fronts prevent anything Tropical from coming anywhere near the Northwest Gulf Coast.

[CyclonicFury]

What Caribbean storm lol.

https://i.postimg.cc/XqQxpBW5/F6-C37813-86-B3-4-E89-9-CF6-B37-A932463-B6.jpg

The EPS showed zilch about 5 days before Laura hit as a high end Category 4.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Maybe they’ll start decreasing development chances at 8pm if the GFS and GEFS even become less enthusiastic.

That or the models are screwing with our minds YET again.

no they wont..... why we we do this with literally every storm?

[mpic]

Stupid question but will this cold front and drier weather possibly have a big influence to keep it away from Texas? I have a roof scheduled to be replaced.

Texas is closed from seeing anymore land falling TC’s in my opinion. Usually after late-September cold fronts prevent anything Tropical from coming anywhere near the Northwest Gulf Coast.

If it wasn't 2020, I wouldn't even be asking lol.

[AutoPenalti]

Maybe they’ll start decreasing development chances at 8pm if the GFS and GEFS even become less enthusiastic.

That or the models are screwing with our minds YET again.

They literally just increased it...

No, I don't think they will or even should decrease development chances.

[Loveweather12]

Stupid question but will this cold front and drier weather possibly have a big influence to keep it away from Texas? I have a roof scheduled to be replaced.

Texas is closed from seeing anymore land falling TC’s in my opinion. Usually after late-September cold fronts prevent anything Tropical from coming anywhere near the Northwest Gulf Coast.

[SFLcane]

There is some long range signal from the eps but it this point we don’t know which wave.

[Ubuntwo]

Stupid question but will this cold front and drier weather possibly have a big influence to keep it away from Texas? I have a roof scheduled to be replaced.

Texas is closed from seeing anymore land falling TC’s in my opinion. Usually after late-September cold fronts prevent anything Tropical from coming anywhere near the Northwest Gulf Coast.

Per climo Texas landfalls can occur up until about mid-October, though very rare.

[FireRat]

I guess this season it's going to take a full-blown sub 900 mb 1000-mile wide Cat 5 monster to get our S2K 'Bears' high on some honey!

Alrighty, back to topic, just looking at all that convection in the Caribbean makes you think something is already brewing. NHC already is making Orangeade, expect Red Kool-aid in a few days IMO.

This season is definitely one for us to NOW-cast and not just abide by the models unless something is already a TS, if even. The models are not very reliable for genesis this year, and that is a fact. Was Sally even supposed to be there? How about the strongest Lousiana hurricane in at least 150 years? Had Laura smashed New Orleans to smithereens, I bet many people would have far more respect for this beast of a season that we're already having.

October is primetime for West Caribbean hurricanes, and this season is likely to be active there, All eyes on the Caribbean in the next few weeks. The fact that some models even have a system in the western Caribbean is already a strong indicator that we'll have a tropical storm or hurricane there by the weekend or next week, IMHO. Don't sleep on this one guys, or whatever follows it over the rest of October.

-FR

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1310644361613520897



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1310665255018737664



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