WINDS MORE INTENSE NEAR INVEST.........

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dixiebreeze
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WINDS MORE INTENSE NEAR INVEST.........

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Nov 01, 2003 9:55 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ ... thumb.html
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:16 pm

Another reason that IF IT'S CLASSIFIED ... it should be deemed subtropical ... the SSMI pass indicates the strongest winds well away from the center (pressure gradient) and very light winds south of the low pressure area.

SF
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:20 pm

SF, true, but isn't it possible that may change?
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:31 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:SF, true, but isn't it possible that may change?


It could, but full transitions take some time ... and with the strength of the baroclinicity and the upper level cyclonic environment, it would take some time ...

1) Convection isn't close enough to the center and definitely not consolidated enough
2) Not true warm core natured ... still very much cold core in nature.

Water vapor imagery looks like the system is getting stretched a bit ...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#5 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:33 pm

So we may end up having STS Odette huh. :)
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:36 pm

Here's a Skew-T (vertical sounding) ... the two readings on the far upper right are the temperature profiles from the surface level on up to the 100mb level ... (temperature on the left, dewpoint on the right). the temperatures at the 500mb level is quite cold ... -9ºC (15ºF), and TD's (dewpoint) is running -25ºC (-13ºF) -- dry air city

Image

SF
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#7 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 01, 2003 11:33 pm

Agree, SF. Definitely NOT tropical at all. And it's at the very least several days away from possibly gaining tropical characteristics. It'll be long past Florida by then.
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#8 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Nov 01, 2003 11:56 pm

From what I've gathered from NWS forecasts, the conventional wisdom is that full tropical characteristics are not expected until the low/wave/system reaches the GOM. Do y'all concur?
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 01, 2003 11:59 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:From what I've gathered from NWS forecasts, the conventional wisdom is that full tropical characteristics are not expected until the low/wave/system reaches the GOM. Do y'all concur?


Yes, I would ... however, since the globals continue to advertise that the system loses its vorticity and weakens (opens) the system up ... IMHO, the system unravels after crossing Florida and into the GOM.

SF
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#10 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Nov 02, 2003 12:03 am

OK. And that will depend, I expect, on how far south it ranges and how much land mass it crosses before its GOM arrival? I believe the SSTs are still very warm in much of the GOM, excepting the far north.
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#11 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Nov 02, 2003 12:10 am

dixiebreeze wrote:OK. And that will depend, I expect, on how far south it ranges and how much land mass it crosses before its GOM arrival? I believe the SSTs are still very warm in much of the GOM, excepting the far north.


It's based not solely on the SST's, dixie. The environment is dry, dry, dry but that isn't the main reason ... The vorticity weakens after crossing into the GOM and basically gets sheared apart (becomes unraveled and opens into an inverted trough).

The GFDL has a good depiction of what I'm talking about ...

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation

SF
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#12 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Nov 02, 2003 12:30 am

Thanks for taking time for the analysis, SF. Appreciate it.
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