EURO hops on board and agrees with GFS on a possible typhoon around the Northern Philippines 8/9 next month.
GFS continues with an uptick in activity with 3 TC's first half of October.
2020 WPAC Season
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mrbagyo
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season
The Canadian's latest run has an interesting low rider 
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Pretty good agreement on the next TC to develop on the 2nd of October.
Icon peak 984 mb
NAVGEM peak 961 mb
CMC peak 985 mb
JMA
So far nothing from EURO. It does show a closed low but no strengthening.
GFS had a strong typhoon but has backed down since.
Icon peak 984 mb
NAVGEM peak 961 mb
CMC peak 985 mb
JMA
So far nothing from EURO. It does show a closed low but no strengthening.
GFS had a strong typhoon but has backed down since.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season
mrbagyo wrote:The Canadian's latest run has an interesting low rider
It seems to form as early as Saturday, so it’s not totally in fantasy land.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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euro6208
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
An active monsoon pattern is setting up over the Marianas with the recipient system right behind.
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euro6208
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
After deepening the system down to 991 mb in the 12z run, GFS 18z back to nothing.
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season
GFS solution past 7 days seems dubious to me. A monsoon gyre in the tropical WPAC in October?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Our calibrated model blend suggests a 40% chance of tropical storm formation in the South China sea during Week-2, so a moderate risk has been posted.
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Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Some interesting ensembles
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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euro6208
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
The globals are indicating a significant TC may develop around the 10-11 and impact the Batanes Islands off the Northern coast of Luzon and into China.
GFS is the most aggressive.
GFS is the most aggressive.
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euro6208
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
I'd be wary if i was in the Philippines.
Past nina events have featured an incredibly record breaking typhoon (+155 knot) impacting the Philippines in October especially after the first week of the Month. Angela in 1995 hit in November.
Examples:
Zeb 1998
Megi 2010
Past nina events have featured an incredibly record breaking typhoon (+155 knot) impacting the Philippines in October especially after the first week of the Month. Angela in 1995 hit in November.
Examples:
Zeb 1998
Megi 2010
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euro6208
Re: 2020 WPAC Season
Some pretty strong signals from GEPS and GEFS for more activity during the month.
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