#8 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:57 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.3N 146.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY
360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME BANDING IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 290345Z AMSR2 PASS INDICATES A POSSIBLE
CIRCULATION WITH SPOTTED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES INVEST 98W IS EXPERIENCING LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 98W
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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