EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:40 pm

Should give the EPAC a nice ACE boost.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:11 pm

Forecasted now to become a major. Could this be why nothing much comes from the Western Caribbean area?
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:34 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Forecasted now to become a major. Could this be why nothing much comes from the Western Caribbean area?

Is it close enough to have an effect on it? Seems like it's already pretty far and it will continue moving away from it
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:56 pm

Honestly pretty bullish on this partially since the but risk is lower later in the year in an RI situation like this.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:05 pm

I honestly hope this one just bombs out and becomes a monster like the 2014 version of Marie. It's about time we can track something intense that isn't on a crash course for any land areas.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:01 pm

18E MARIE 200930 0000 13.7N 109.9W EPAC 40 1003
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:49 pm

The NHC discussion implies that Marie is forming a very tiny core, which means it could be more susceptible to a more extreme phase of RI. Maybe it could become a pinhole major like Erick ‘19.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:03 pm

aspen wrote:The NHC discussion implies that Marie is forming a very tiny core, which means it could be more susceptible to a more extreme phase of RI. Maybe it could become a pinhole major like Erick ‘19.

It would be fitting for 2020 if this becomes a Cat 5 without the Atlantic producing one despite the extreme activity over there. Kind of like 2010 lol
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:27 am

30/0530 UTC 14.0N 111.6W T3.0/3.0 MARIE -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:29 am

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 300235
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020

Infrared and passive microwave imagery indicate that Marie has
continued to become better organized despite moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear of about 15 kt. The deep convection is now
primarily confined to a single tightly curved band that wraps
around the west side of the circulation. A late-arriving 29/1718Z
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed that Marie has a very tight
inner-core circulation with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of only
10-15 nmi and a small 34-kt wind radii extending outward to only
about 20 nmi The scatterometer data also showed some 34-38 kt
surface wind vectors in all quadrants. A blend of the scatterometer
wind data and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of of T2.5/35 kt
and T3.0/45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the intensity has
been increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. As mentioned in the
previous discussion, Marie's forecast track remains fairly
straightforward. The cyclone is expected to move generally westward
to west-northwestward for the next few days as it skirts the
southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the north. Thereafter, a
slower motion toward the northwest is forecast as Marie moves into a
weakness in the ridge. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but
a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies
down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track model
guidance envelope.

Although the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models have backed
off significantly on predicting rapid intensification (RI) on this
cycle, several environmental and cyclone structural parameters are
still favorable for RI to occur. For about the next 72 hours,
sea-surface temperatures (SST) are forecast to remain above 28C,
alone with mid-level humidity values above 70 prevent and low wind
shear values around 5 kt. Those environmental conditions coupled
with Marie's small RMW should result in RI beginning in about 24
hours and continuing until the 60-h time period. As result, Marie
is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in about 24 hours and
possibly become a major hurricane in 60-72 hours. Rapid weakening
is expected on days 4 and 5 due to SSTs less than 26C, likely
significant cold upwelling owing to Marie's expected large and
strong wind field, and increasing southwesterly vertical shear of
20-25 kt. The NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the Decay-SHIPS
and LGEM statistical models and the corrected-consensus HCCA model.

Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a
small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell
originating from the Southern Hemisphere.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 13.8N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.6N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 15.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 15.5N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 16.5N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 19.8N 129.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 21.4N 132.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:43 am

Shes looking very good:
Image
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:49 am

Certainly has that look though its inner core isn't quite there yet. I like it's odds, given model trends, of a somewhat long tracked major, though shear will kick it once it turns northwest. Has the feel of a last hurrah of the season given the track and time of year.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:44 am

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Geostationary satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to
become better organized with a curved band of convection over the
western semicircle and a small central dense overcast feature. An
ASCAT-B overpass from around 0515 UTC was very helpful in
pinpointing the center, and it also revealed that Marie's
tropical-storm-force wind field is quite small. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates of T3.0 and the scatterometer
data yielded an intensity of 45 kt at 0600 UTC, but given the
continued improvement in organization, the advisory intensity
has been set at 50 kt.

Although Marie's outflow is somewhat restricted over the
northeastern portion of the storm due to some northeasterly shear,
it has been expanding over the past few hours indicating that the
shear is decreasing as anticipated. Marie is forecast to remain
over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next
couple of days. These very conducive conditions favor
strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady to
rapid intensification over the next 48 hours. The official
forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS, LGEM, and HFIP
corrected consensus models which all predict periods of rapid
strengthening over the next 48 to 60 hours. The updated NHC wind
speed forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening and a slightly
higher peak intensity than in the previous advisory. After 72
hours, cooler waters and a more stable environment should result in
steady to rapid weakening.

Maria is moving westward at about 14 kt, a little faster than
before. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy
as Marie is expected to move westward to west-northwestward during
the next few days while it remains to the south of a deep-layer
ridge. After that time, a slower northwestward motion is predicted
when Marie approaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest runs of
the dynamical models have trended toward a more westward track
during the first 60 hours or so, and the official forecast has been
adjusted accordingly. Thereafter, the NHC track is fairly similar
to the previous advisory, and it again lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a
small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell
originating from the Southern Hemisphere.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 14.1N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 14.4N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 16.8N 125.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 30, 2020 9:45 am

Peak up to 115kt.

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Marie's satellite presentation has been gradually improving. The
center is embedded beneath a central dense overcast feature, and
the convective band within the western semicircle has become a
little more pronounced and continuous. In addition, a mid-level eye
has begun to form, as observed in a 1200 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt from
TAFB and SAB, and the most recent SATCON estimate was 53 kt (at
around 0900 UTC). Based on these numbers and the continued
improvement of Marie's structure, the initial intensity is set at 55
kt.

The stage appears set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the
next couple of days. Water vapor imagery indicates that the
easterly shear over the cyclone has continued to decrease and
should be generally low for the next 3 days, and upper-level
divergence will also be in place during that period to help
ventilate the storm. The thermodynamics are also favorable for
fast strengthening, highlighted by sea surface temperatures of
28-29 degrees Celsius and plenty of moisture in the surrounding
environment. Due to these conditions, the NHC forecast explicitly
shows rapid intensification during the next couple of days, with a
peak intensity likely occuring sometime between 48 and 60 hours.
The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been nudged
upward slightly from the previous prediction, following the trends
in the intensity guidance, however it's noteworthy that even this
forecast is 5-10 kt lower than the solutions provided by the HCCA
consensus aid and the COAMPS-TC model. In about 3 days, cooler
waters and then increasing shear (especially on days 4 and 5)
should induce a gradual weakening trend.

Marie is moving westward (275/14 kt) to the south of a strong
mid-tropospheric high centered near the U.S./Mexico border. This
ridge is expected to maintain Marie on a westward or
west-northwestward trajectory for the next 2-3 days. Even though a
mid- to upper-level low near 130W longitude has caused a break in
the ridge, the models have trended toward this feature weakening
during the next few days. This has in turn caused many of the
models to trend westward with Marie's track after day 3, as was
noted in the previous advisory, but there is also greater spread
than there was yesterday. The NHC track forecast remains closest to
the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, near the middle of the guidance
envelope, which is bracketed on the right side by the GFS (and its
ensemble mean) and the left side by the ECMWF (and its ensemble
mean) by the end of the forecast period.

The 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a
tropical storm of Marie's size due to a large fetch of southerly
swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 14.2N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.5N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 15.1N 121.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 15.9N 123.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 16.9N 125.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 18.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.8N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 21.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:08 am

Shear continues to lessen, as seen by some of the shallower convection expanding to the east. Marie has an excellent CDO of <-75C convection, as well as expansive outflow and banding on the west side, almost comparable to a WPac system.
Image
Image

I've been pretty bearish on Marie over the last few days due to the poor performance of nearly every EPac system this year, but Marie has been intensifying very quickly with very little problems in a short timespan, and its environment is only going to improve through the end of the week. It will also remain around 15N through late Thursday/early Friday, putting it within waters capable of supporting a Cat 5 hurricane down to 900-910 mbar. Marie's rough position over the next two days has been circled in the MPI pressure map.
Image
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:50 am

The question is if this 2020 Marie will be like the 2014 version that had the peak intensity at 140 kts? What are your opinions on this.

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:00 am

cycloneye wrote:The question is if this 2020 Marie will be like the 2014 version that had the peak intensity at 140 kts? What are your opinions on this.

https://i.imgur.com/TLu0ozN.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/oB9vFQ5.gif

It’s not too likely, but it’s not impossible. My previous post highlighted that Marie will be in waters capable of supporting a storm as intense as its 2014 version, and its compact circulation could help with RI.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:28 am

Category 5 is quite unlikely because the globals haven't been bringing this down to sub-940mbar like you'd see in a system with some legit shot at Cat 5 and SST's aren't 29-30C. I'd expect the usual 115-125 knots here and I'd say I'm more confident in this expectation than normal.
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:09 pm

Microwave imagery from a few hours ago shows a small partial eyewall.
Image
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Re: EPAC: MARIE - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:42 pm

18E MARIE 200930 1800 14.2N 114.4W EPAC 60 991
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