Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
12Z UKMET: once again no Caribbean TC genesis through 144 hours
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Longhornmaniac8
- Category 1
- Posts: 254
- Joined: Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:30 am
- Location: Austin, TX
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
So if hypothetically one were planning a trip to Cancun this Saturday, one should probably cancel it before the cancellation fee increases if they were looking for nice beach weather Saturday-Wednesday?
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145303
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is
expected to move westward over the next couple of days, and produce
a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by
Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is
expected to move westward over the next couple of days, and produce
a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by
Thursday night or Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23691
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
Despite decent model agreement this ends up moving into the Yucatan in the next 3-4 days, I noticed the NHC outlook won’t commit to that (yet)
0 likes
- DestinHurricane
- Category 4
- Posts: 935
- Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
- Location: New York, NY
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
gatorcane wrote:Despite decent model agreement this ends up moving into the Yucatan in the next 3-4 days, I noticed the NHC outlook won’t commit to that (yet)
NHC>models. Always.
6 likes
Michael 2018
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 136
- Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:37 pm
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
Because the NHC are experts and they understand common sense to know models change and plus a low hasn’t formed yet. Always trust the experts!
gatorcane wrote:Despite decent model agreement this ends up moving into the Yucatan in the next 3-4 days, I noticed the NHC outlook won’t commit to that (yet)
4 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2650
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
Loveweather12 wrote:Because the NHC are experts and they understand common sense to know models change and plus a low hasn’t formed yet. Always trust the experts!gatorcane wrote:Despite decent model agreement this ends up moving into the Yucatan in the next 3-4 days, I noticed the NHC outlook won’t commit to that (yet)
They will use experience, and these evolutions are always tricky to forecast. More times than not, when you have development along the tail end of a frontal boundary, you will get lowering pressures to the NE. You will often see competing lobes of vorticity, and the NE lobe is typically favored (as the lowest pressure maximum is favored to the NE). You can see in the past few GFS run trends, the model has been trending in that direction. It's not a sure thing, as stated these evolutions are tricky to forecast. But from my experience, that's what I would be looking for (and what the NHC is likely considering as well):

3 likes
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 6108
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
Aggregation of vorticity seems to be occurring near 16N 78W, if my eyes don’t deceive me. With a north of west movement, this should clear Honduras
3 likes
- Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
- Posts: 1432
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
- Location: Sarasota FL
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
cheezyWXguy wrote:Aggregation of vorticity seems to be occurring near 16N 78W, if my eyes don’t deceive me. With a north of west movement, this should clear Honduras
Lots of lightning strikes which might be near the apex of the wave.
I thought Luis might have locked the thread for the invest by now?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
Nimbus wrote:cheezyWXguy wrote:Aggregation of vorticity seems to be occurring near 16N 78W, if my eyes don’t deceive me. With a north of west movement, this should clear Honduras
Lots of lightning strikes which might be near the apex of the wave.
I thought Luis might have locked the thread for the invest by now?
Give a couple of minutes.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
the tropics are looking....not boring...over the next couple of weeks. stuff is going to happen..
2 likes
- GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 45
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
- eastcoastFL
- Category 5
- Posts: 3901
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
- Location: Palm City, FL
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
gatorcane wrote:Despite decent model agreement this ends up moving into the Yucatan in the next 3-4 days, I noticed the NHC outlook won’t commit to that (yet)
Models are kinda useless without a low. They’re just a tool but not a super helpful one prior to genesis this year. I trust NHC, Gcane and Aric far more than all the models combined.
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
GeneratorPower wrote:Has an invest been declared for this?
Not yet
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
Most of the 850mb-level vorticity associated with this wave is finally over the SW Caribbean Sea and within the huge mass of convection. I believe this is earlier than when most of the models expected the disturbance’s vorticity to be over open water, so either it’ll have more time to develop and intensify, or it’ll get to the Yucatán earlier as well.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
SFLcane wrote:Hmmm... gfs stays out of BOC this time.
It'll get there. Moving that way at 120
0 likes
My Weather Station
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:Hmmm... gfs stays out of BOC this time.
It'll get there. Moving that way at 120
That stall near the Yucatán will mean more rain for us in South Florida.
2 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:Hmmm... gfs stays out of BOC this time.
It'll get there. Moving that way at 120
That stall near the Yucatán will mean more rain for us in South Florida.
Yup, high rain chances moving in for the next week at least. I'll take that without the 120mph winds

Meanwhile the 18z GFS looks like a pinball machine with vorts spinning all over the place
0 likes
My Weather Station
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Europa non è lontana, gib, riapal and 48 guests