2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ubuntwo]

The models might be garbage but all indications are nothing significant comes from either area of interest.

It amazes me out of 23 storms that we’ve only seen 2 major hurricanes.

yes, that is remarkable, but very fortunate! So far one good thing about this season. However even with only 2 majors the folks in SW Louisiana only needed one to make this an extremely destructive season and to a lesser extent the folks in S. Al and extreme western FL panhandle.

Definitely, all it takes is one. Fortunately Florida was able to get untouched with all the coastline we have.

For awhile I’ve been feeling like this is a repeat of 2012 in a sense on steroids. A lot of quantity with some quality mixed in.

Florida was most definitely not untouched with Sally, but point taken.

[aspen]

Even with “eh” model support on the two AOIs, there are still plenty of other opportunities for systems to develop in the next 10-14 days. The remnants of Paulette are STILL around, the GFS has some long-range STCs, and several models (especially the CMC) show multiple waves over the next week or so that bear watching. Also, at this time in 2005, Wilma wouldn’t form for another two weeks, so there’s plenty of time for something to go bonkers in the Caribbean. With all of the AEWs out there, odds are at least one of them becomes a significant TC.

[TheStormExpert]

yes, that is remarkable, but very fortunate! So far one good thing about this season. However even with only 2 majors the folks in SW Louisiana only needed one to make this an extremely destructive season and to a lesser extent the folks in S. Al and extreme western FL panhandle.

Definitely, all it takes is one. Fortunately Florida was able to get untouched with all the coastline we have.

For awhile I’ve been feeling like this is a repeat of 2012 in a sense on steroids. A lot of quantity with some quality mixed in.

Florida was most definitely not untouched with Sally, but point taken.

Well maybe not the extreme western part of the panhandle but about 75% of the state has been untouched. Besides Sally made landfall in Alabama.

[TheStormExpert]

Even with “eh” model support on the two AOIs, there are still plenty of other opportunities for systems to develop in the next 10-14 days. The remnants of Paulette are STILL around, the GFS has some long-range STCs, and several models (especially the CMC) show multiple waves over the next week or so that bear watching. Also, at this time in 2005, Wilma wouldn’t form for another two weeks, so there’s plenty of time for something to go bonkers in the Caribbean. With all of the AEWs out there, odds are at least one of them becomes a significant TC.

Yes, we still have a whole month ahead of us plus November so something significant could still form in the Western Caribbean, just not guaranteed.

[gatorcane]

These are the same global models that missed badly on some storms this year sometimes only showing the real outcome until literally a few days out. In other words the models have played a lot of catchup this year. Considering we just started October, plenty of time to get a major this month and it would probably be from something in the Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET has a TD forming at hour 144:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 21.6N 94.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2020 144 21.6N 94.5W 1005 31

*Corrected

[Ubuntwo]

12Z UKMET has a TD forming at hour 144:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 21.6N 94.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2020 144 21.6N 94.5W 1005 31

*Corrected

Based on the location that's 91L, so might not belong here. FWIW, this run also had an MDR system.

[LarryWx]

Whereas the 0Z EPS had only ~7 sub 1000 mb Gulf storms from the two waves, the 12Z EPS has ~13 (25%) sub 1000 mb storms. Most of the geneses are by 10/8. 3 sub 1000 hit LA and 5 sub 1000 hit the area from the FL Panhandle to Big Bend making that area the highest risk on this run. Climo suggests 2 areas at highest risk of landfall from storms that form in the W Caribbean or Gulf in early Oct: S FL and the Gulf coast from LA east to the FL Big Bend. This run is suggesting the Gulf coast area may be at highest risk this year, but that’s just speculation based on this run.

Edit: The 12Z GEFS sort of agrees regarding sub 1000 mb landfalls from its 31 members with 2 TX, 7 LA to FL Big Bend, and 2 SW FL.

Members in well inland places like Gainesville, Atlanta, Columbia, and Raleigh among others would be well advised to monitor the tropics for potential significant effects toward midmonth from an earlier Gulf coast landfalling TC. It isn’t just the coasts that could be significantly affected. The period at most risk appears to be centered around 10/10-14.

[aspen]

Today's 18z GFS run is particularly interesting. It has continued two news trends: AOI 1/future Gamma taking a left-hand turn into the BoC after a few days, and vorticity from AOI 2 tracking north of the Greater Antilles. In this run, future Gamma intensifies into a hurricane in the BoC, and AOI 2 remains defined enough to bear watching for development. SSTs are still 28-30C north of the large islands. The GFS also continues to have whatever's left of Paulette track into warmer waters in the north central Atlantic, so it could regenerate AGAIN if other factors allow it.

[SFLcane]

No conus problems coming from the Caribbean anytime soon.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1311794329615204353

[Loveweather12]

*MIGHT. Things can change & the season isn’t over. Blank statements don’t help no one

No conus problems coming from the Caribbean anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1311794329615204353?

[toad strangler]

No conus problems coming from the Caribbean anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1311794329615204353?

That sure as hell is anomalous ridging modeled there for October. Can't buy a trough anywhere. Not that I want one, but I don't trust it. Troughs pop up unexpectedly

[boca]

No conus problems coming from the Caribbean anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1311794329615204353?

I agree after this front dies out over Florida, their isn’t a trough in sight to bring whatever south of us to move north like climatology supposed to be for October.

[MetroMike]

This year throw climo out the window it seems, nothing can be assumed including seemingly perfect conditions for storm genesis in which lows struggle to develop and stay alive in some cases,

No conus problems coming from the Caribbean anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1311794329615204353?

I agree after this front dies out over Florida, their isn’t a trough in sight to bring whatever south of us to move north like climatology supposed to be for October.

[ConvergenceZone]

I said it back in late August and early September, (although I kind of got the eyes rolled at me) that I've seen plenty of seasons in the past that almost shut off starting in mid September, and so far this year is turning out to be one of them.
I mean think how crazy active it was, and then it's almost as if a switch was turned off just after Mid September. It doesn't mean you can't have a straggler show up in October or even November. But I've seen this switch do this same thing in other seasons as it's doing right now......We will see....

[SouthFLTropics]

While that ridge is welcome news to keep anything in the Western Caribbean at bay, it could become a problem if something manages to sneak into the Bahamas and decide to spin up.

[blp]

The Euro tracks as a whole for both areas more active today from the 00z to 12z and.more Conus threats.

00z


12z

[LarryWx]

No conus problems coming from the Caribbean anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1311794329615204353?

I agree after this front dies out over Florida, their isn’t a trough in sight to bring whatever south of us to move north like climatology supposed to be for October.

Climo doesn’t work quite like that. It only suggests probabilities of various scenarios based on many decades worth of tracks during different portions of the season. In other words, it isn't that simple. It doesn't really say whatever is "supposed to" happen.

[LarryWx]

This year throw climo out the window it seems, nothing can be assumed including seemingly perfect conditions for storm genesis in which lows struggle to develop and stay alive in some cases,

No conus problems coming from the Caribbean anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1311794329615204353?

I agree after this front dies out over Florida, their isn’t a trough in sight to bring whatever south of us to move north like climatology supposed to be for October.

Climo suggests probabilities of various scenarios based on many decades worth of tracks during different portions of the season. It should never be "thrown out" imo.
It is always a useful tool, but it needs to be used correctly to be helpful.

Example: Even though a large majority of CV TCs don't make it to the CONUS, climo doesn't say to automatically assume the CONUS won't get hit by any particular storm just based on it.

[LarryWx]

The Euro tracks as a whole for both areas more active today from the 00z to 12z and.more Conus threats.

00z
https://i.ibb.co/5rMdkcD/ecens-2020-10-01-00-Z-240-29-562-257-036-11-898-288-93-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

12z
https://i.ibb.co/m8sg3Wc/ecens-2020-10-01-12-Z-240-29-562-257-036-11-898-288-93-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Indeed, this is one of the most active EPS runs. Out of 51 members, 3 sub 1000 TCs go on to hit LA and 5 sub 1000 go on to hit the area from the FL Panhandle to the FL Big Bend.