ATL: GAMMA - Models

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Ivanhater
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ATL: GAMMA - Models

#1 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:10 am

Model runs only
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L-Models

#2 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:46 am

Ivanhater wrote:Model runs only
Model runs only until it turns into debate, discussion and conjecture. :D
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#3 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:28 pm

UKMet finally shows this developing, with a TS in the Bay of Campeche.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#4 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:14 pm

18z GFS coming in significantly stronger with a potent hurricane in the BOC.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#5 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:29 pm

Major hurricane in the BoC on this run. Lingers for days nearing Tampico by D10.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#6 Postby edu2703 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:36 pm

18z GFS: Landfall near Playa de Tuxpan as a TS/Cat1 at hour 240

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#7 Postby cp79 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:05 pm

Could be an Opal if it sits in the BOC waiting for a front to dig down and pull it NE. This time of year storms very rarely move westward in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#8 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:46 pm

18z GFS-Para has a landfall in Texas as a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#9 Postby edu2703 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:09 pm

18z GFS-para

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#10 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:35 pm


Florida deflector shield is in full effect on parallel. :lol:


Looks like Texas is in play now.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#11 Postby edu2703 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:41 pm

00z GFS

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#12 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:35 am

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 18.6N 86.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2020 24 18.6N 86.7W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.10.2020 36 19.3N 87.4W 1003 30
0000UTC 04.10.2020 48 19.8N 88.2W 1004 30
1200UTC 04.10.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#13 Postby Astromanía » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:41 am

Mmmm I could be in the path of this thing, I should watch this closely
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#14 Postby edu2703 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:28 am

00z EURO buries 91L in the BOC after crossing Yucatan, showing very little development.

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#15 Postby edu2703 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:49 am

06z GFS

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#16 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:24 am

GFS run-to-run trending to a much strong TC and a breaking down of the ridge to the north.
If trend continues, a lot of Texas folks could be getting pretty nervous.

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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#17 Postby cp79 » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:36 am

GCANE wrote:GFS run-to-run trending to a much strong TC and a breaking down of the ridge to the north.
If trend continues, a lot of Texas folks could be getting pretty nervous.

https://imgur.com/YdUjgl0


Not sure I see this getting in Texas.
It’s October. Storms this time of year don’t go west, they go NE. But it’s 2020. Everything is a$$ backwards.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#18 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:39 am

AutoPenalti wrote:

Florida deflector shield is in full effect on parallel. :lol:


Looks like Texas is in play now.

Texas rarely ever sees anything in October thanks to cold fronts moving into the Western Gulf.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#19 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:45 am

The GFS and GFS-Para have been consistent with the left-turn scenario, and I believe them over the CMC’s broad gyre scenario because 91L appears to be much further developed than the CMC has it. The ICON is also showing that left-turn BoC scenario.
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Re: ATL: Invest 91L - Models

#20 Postby Nimbus » Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:05 am

AutoPenalti wrote:

Florida deflector shield is in full effect on parallel. :lol:


Looks like Texas is in play now.


06Z GFS steer horns weak storm right towards Florida with trough shearing then trough misses.
High pressure rebuilds allowing BOC major hurricane to develop.
Steer horns left into Texas before the October savior trough?

TST or FDS moo.
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