ATL: GAMMA - Models

[Emmett_Brown]

So I notice the 6Z GEFS takes stronger members (I counted 8 sub 990mb) more toward the right, and through the Yucatan channel. Many of these continue NE, getting close to the FL peninsula before getting blocked and turned back W. The weaker members continue WNW into the Yucatan. This could be a trend to watch once we have accurate position and intensity measurements from recon. GEFS seems to imply in the short term that a stronger Gamma will head more to the right before ultimately heading back to the left.

[cp79]

While a left turn is good news for Florida, it’s bad news for the storm is likely gonna get destroyed by shear.
I’m not sure it can survive it. Euro basically kills it. The usually bullish HWRF even kills it in the BOC, and when they kill a storm, there’s not much hope. So I do think the more East it goes, the stronger it stays. The more west, the more doomed it is.

I still think for Florida, the system behind 91L is the one to more closely watch.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS ensembles with strong members bring this NE. Still need to watch this.

[Dean4Storms]

Those members driving it NE then sudden turn westward shows how the lower level flow takes over steering wise once the mid level gets decapitated.

[aspen]

While a left turn is good news for Florida, it’s bad news for the storm is likely gonna get destroyed by shear.
I’m not sure it can survive it. Euro basically kills it. The usually bullish HWRF even kills it in the BOC, and when they kill a storm, there’s not much hope. So I do think the more East it goes, the stronger it stays. The more west, the more doomed it is.

I still think for Florida, the system behind 91L is the one to more closely watch.

The difference between a hurricane and a weak TS in the BoC all depends on how far north 91L gets. The GFS is weaker in the short-term, so it doesn’t get as far north and ends up in the southern BoC. The HWRF is stronger in the short term, gets it further north, and has it interact more with the cold front as it remains more in the central Gulf than the BoC. We won’t know which solution is more likely until recon determines how 91L is doing.

[SFLcane]

GFS ensembles with strong members bring this NE. Still need to watch this.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_gefs_latest.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91L_tracks_latest.png

Potentially worth watching as 06z GEFS is more right then 00z with a deeper cyclone.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1312015158718365696

[Senobia]

18z GFS-para

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh6-258.gif

Florida deflector shield is in full effect on parallel.


Looks like Texas is in play now.

Texas rarely ever sees anything in October thanks to cold fronts moving into the Western Gulf.

True.
There have only been 3 since 1912.

[Rgv20]

So odd seeing a Westward moving TC in the GOM in October as being forecast by the GFS.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1312015158718365696

[edu2703]

12z GFS shows a significant weaker storm than 06z GFS. Buries it in the BOC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1312067600818614272

[cp79]

So from what I’m seeing, the more west It goes, the more it gets destroyed. Seems like a lot of models that put it in the BOC kill it. Those that pull it more NE keep it alive.

[chaser1]

So I notice the 6Z GEFS takes stronger members (I counted 8 sub 990mb) more toward the right, and through the Yucatan channel. Many of these continue NE, getting close to the FL peninsula before getting blocked and turned back W. The weaker members continue WNW into the Yucatan. This could be a trend to watch once we have accurate position and intensity measurements from recon. GEFS seems to imply in the short term that a stronger Gamma will head more to the right before ultimately heading back to the left.

Good point Emmett. Furthermore, not only does this imply that a deeper Gamma might steer more north and east, but it appears that the majority of those stronger members are also projecting the storm to be a bit further north at 48 hr.'s. Seems like most stronger members bring the storm close to 24 or 25 North, as compared to the GFS being closer to 22N. Not a big difference except in this game of inches, a deeper storm that's just a couple of degrees further north and east might just mean a track that leads to a Florida landfall

[tomatkins]

While a left turn is good news for Florida, it’s bad news for the storm is likely gonna get destroyed by shear.
I’m not sure it can survive it. Euro basically kills it. The usually bullish HWRF even kills it in the BOC, and when they kill a storm, there’s not much hope. So I do think the more East it goes, the stronger it stays. The more west, the more doomed it is.

I still think for Florida, the system behind 91L is the one to more closely watch.

Probably significant for the eastern Caribbean wave as well. A stronger, more eastern TD25 is gonna make it harder for that one to develop.

[aspen]

Models now want Gamma to make landfall in only 24-30 hours. The GFS has it continue going NW, while the GFS-Para and HWRF have it strengthen and take a bit of a NNW turn before striking the tip of the Yucutan in 30-36 hours.

The 12z HWRF has a very impressive looking 985-990 mbar system tomorrow morning. The short-range intensity and simulated IR imagery suggest Gamma attempts to bomb out, but can only max out as a moderate Cat 1 due to land interaction and, later, dry air leaking in from the northern half of the Gulf.

[cp79]

While a left turn is good news for Florida, it’s bad news for the storm is likely gonna get destroyed by shear.
I’m not sure it can survive it. Euro basically kills it. The usually bullish HWRF even kills it in the BOC, and when they kill a storm, there’s not much hope. So I do think the more East it goes, the stronger it stays. The more west, the more doomed it is.

I still think for Florida, the system behind 91L is the one to more closely watch.

Probably significant for the eastern Caribbean wave as well. A stronger, more eastern TD25 is gonna make it harder for that one to develop.

Models seem to want to squash TD25 quickly once it’s in the BOC and then the next wave moves right in. NAVGEM plays on this and starting to appear the early frames of the 18z GFS and ICOn May do this as well. This is gonna be an interesting week.

[edu2703]

18z GFS once again buries it in the BOC

[LarryWx]

Any opinion on the likelihood that the para GFS' much further N movement into the Gulf is going to verify? If so, the para GFS is suggesting that the followup would likely also track much further north and maybe come into the east coast of FL from the east as a relatively weak TC followed by not much Gulf development. It isn't just the last para GFS run that did this, but rather the last FOUR runs that have done this! Is it on crack or is it seeing reality?

[Nimbus]

Watch the Canadian airmass blow south down through Utah all the way to the northern gulf states.
If that trend continues not much chance of 91L getting very far north.

[cp79]

Watch the Canadian airmass blow south down through Utah all the way to the northern gulf states.
If that trend continues not much chance of 91L getting very far north.

I just think anything that tries to get north in the next week is going to get ripped apart. Tough conditions. Gonna take a week for things in the Gulf to calm down but for now anything that tries to approach that stalled front will be torn to pieces. Florida will get some good rains over the next few days.