ATL: GAMMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lrak]

This Gamma already gives me the "heebie-jeebies." Sounds like the Sun is coming towards us

[Jr0d]

This is really starting to pull itself together.

I do not have much confidence in the forecast track though. I feel like late season storms are almost always tricky to forecast and the models struggle with the change of season storms(on top of their poor performance this year), so all those things considered give me low confidence. Also now that it is becoming better organized, it may go more poleward than originally expected...stronger storms go more p oleward as a general rule of thumb.

[FireRat]

Holy Smokes Gamma looks impressive this evening!

Could it become a hurricane? Would not surprise me one bit to be honest. There's something kinda eerie to this #25... fun fact, the last tine we had a 25th-system (25L), it was Wilma 2005. Don't underestimate Gamma!

[aspen]

As impressive as Gamma is, it’s not a compact storm prone to random bursts of intensification like Marco and Nana, and is in fact quite broad. It could take a little longer to truly get going, although some nice bursts of Dmax convection could do the trick.

[ElectricStorm]

Holy Smokes Gamma looks impressive this evening!

Could it become a hurricane? Would not surprise me one bit to be honest. There's something kinda eerie to this #25... fun fact, the last tine we had a 25th-system (25L), it was Wilma 2005. Don't underestimate Gamma!

Wasn't Wilma 24L? I don't know. I certainly wasn't tracking strom's back then I was 4 lol

[cycloneye]

Holy Smokes Gamma looks impressive this evening!

Could it become a hurricane? Would not surprise me one bit to be honest. There's something kinda eerie to this #25... fun fact, the last tine we had a 25th-system (25L), it was Wilma 2005. Don't underestimate Gamma!

Wasn't Wilma 24L? I don't know. I certainly wasn't tracking strom's back then I was 4 lol

It was 24.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...

[CyclonicFury]

Holy Smokes Gamma looks impressive this evening!

Could it become a hurricane? Would not surprise me one bit to be honest. There's something kinda eerie to this #25... fun fact, the last tine we had a 25th-system (25L), it was Wilma 2005. Don't underestimate Gamma!

Wasn't Wilma 24L? I don't know. I certainly wasn't tracking strom's back then I was 4 lol

It was 24.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...

It was 24L operationally, but got renamed to 25L after the unnamed subtropical storm was added in post-season analysis.

[cycloneye]

Wasn't Wilma 24L? I don't know. I certainly wasn't tracking strom's back then I was 4 lol

It was 24.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...

It was 24L operationally, but got renamed to 25L after the unnamed subtropical storm was added in post-season analysis.

Thank you for the clarification.

[FireRat]

Wasn't Wilma 24L? I don't know. I certainly wasn't tracking strom's back then I was 4 lol

It was 24.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION GRADUALLY ORGANIZING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...

It was 24L operationally, but got renamed to 25L after the unnamed subtropical storm was added in post-season analysis.

Thanks for the input fellas, lol so it was originally 24L
But yeah I remember reading about Wilma one day years ago and noticed it was 25L, after the correction I suppose!

I'm amazed at how quickly Gamma came together today, my gyess is that land curvature helped it speed up organization!

[AutoPenalti]

Don’t really see what everyone is talking about, Gamma seems to be intensifying on cue with most of today’s guidance, I don’t see any indication on IR that it’s establishing a CDO...yet.

[FireRat]

Don’t really see what everyone is talking about, Gamma seems to be intensifying on cue with most of today’s guidance, I don’t see any indication on IR that it’s establishing a CDO...yet.

that's just some of us getting bullish, myself included, because of the way the storm looked on the visible imagery... it just has that 'look', if you know what I mean, doesn't look like slop. If Gamma were further east and away from land I'd be saying it could be a monster.

[aspen]

There are a ton of tiny but deep (<-80 C) hot towers popping around the center, perhaps signaling that a CDO will be forming soon.

[lrak]

There are a ton of tiny but deep (<-80 C) hot towers popping around the center, perhaps signaling that a CDO will be forming soon.

WOW...all over the place. Is Gamma getting a feeder band forming to its SW?

[TheStormExpert]

There’s currently 50-70kts. of shear awaiting Gamma in the Gulf of Mexico. Highly doubt Gamma intensifies much more.

[Argcane]

I really think it is not going to intensify beyond a strong TS/minimal hurricane. That wall of shear in the GOMEX is sure awaiting for her. Besides, it appears that quadrants N/NW are already battling with shear of 20-25kts.

[cp79]

I really think it is not going to intensify beyond a strong TS/minimal hurricane. That wall of shear in the GOMEX is sure awaiting for her. Besides, it appears that cuadrants N/NW are already battling shear of 20-25kts.

Agree. The system behind Gamma has a better chance because once it gets into Gulf the shear may be less and it will likely take a more traditional October path. I’d be shocked if Gamma is still alive come Monday. That shear could tear it to shreds.

[edu2703]

NHC reduced the peak forecast to 45 knots

[ElectricStorm]

NHC reduced the peak forecast to 45 knots

Makes sense, wall of shear incoming...

[xironman]

NHC reduced the peak forecast to 45 knots

Oops

H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 51kts (58.7mph)

[Keldeo1997]

Gamma looks like one of those ominous Wpac storms. Luckily it won't be able to do much.