ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Loveweather12]

You think that might change? To models being more North & East towards to FL?

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

Hi Autopenalti, Based on what? I see no trofs just high pressure for the foreseeable for future after the current front departs or washes out.

Based on model inconsistencies.

[Loveweather12]

What is NAO negative mean? How does that affect the track?

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

NAO is currently negative if that’s worth anything. Florida has been too luck for too long!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What is NAO negative mean? How does that affect the track?

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

NAO is currently negative if that’s worth anything. Florida has been too luck for too long!

Negative NAO establishes a long wave trough with many trough shortwave impulses- basically lots of troughs coming down which means any storm entering the gulf via the Caribbean will be pulled north or northeast depending on timing, storm strength, and orientation of the troughs- how strong 92L gets will be critical in determining what level of the atmosphere it is steered by and where it goes- a weaker system goes more westerly, and a stronger one Northerly to perhaps northeasterly dependent on shortwave trough orientations.

[SFLcane]

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

Hi Autopenalti, Based on what? I see no trofs just high pressure for the foreseeable for future after the current front departs or washes out.

Based on model inconsistencies.

This is true. Euro is garbage this year no doupt but i am looking at the overall upper pattern. Just really unbelievable how lucky South Florida has been as of late to think this October is about to produce 2 Caribbean tc’s.

[cp79]

It’s getting its act together as we speak. Mid-level spin starting. Perfect conditions the next 48-72 hours. I said it a few days ago, as a Fla west coast resident, this is the one that worries me.

[SFLcane]

It’s getting its act together as we speak. Mid-level spin starting. Perfect conditions the next 48-72 hours. I said it a few days ago, as a Fla west coast resident, this is the one that worries me.

If the gfs is correct Florida will not have much concern yet once again. Unusual ridge should prevent north turn off course subject to change.

[cp79]

It’s getting its act together as we speak. Mid-level spin starting. Perfect conditions the next 48-72 hours. I said it a few days ago, as a Fla west coast resident, this is the one that worries me.

If the gfs is correct Florida will not have much concern yet once again. Unusual ridge should prevent north turn off course subject to change.

https://i.imgur.com/wpfsM0Z.png

I don’t think there’s enough to pull it north though once it hits the Central Gulf. It may sit there for a while and wait for a front like the Para suggests. Early thinking is this is a panhandle-Big bend storm where it waits for a front and gets kicked NE.

[cp79]

No matter what happens, I think it’s safe to say the Gulf is going to be a place of terror for the next week whike 1-2 two storms sit and spin while interacting with a cold front and likely just sitting and not moving or just drifting. It’s going to look a mess.

[toad strangler]

:

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

NAO is currently negative if that’s worth anything. Florida has been too luck for too long!

The S FL peninsula just had a major landfall in 2017.

[Blinhart]

So is it possible both systems will be interacting with each other inside the GoM???

[SFLcane]

:

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

NAO is currently negative if that’s worth anything. Florida has been too luck for too long!

The S FL peninsula just had a major landfall in 2017.

We are talking east coast metro areas of SFL dade and broward counties which believe it or not only saw sustained strong TS winds during Irma.

[MississippiWx]

So odd that this is yet another period where two TCs may interact in the Gulf of Mexico. Just wild.

[toad strangler]

:

NAO is currently negative if that’s worth anything. Florida has been too luck for too long!

The S FL peninsula just had a major landfall in 2017.

We are talking east coast metro areas of SFL dade and broward counties which believe it or not only saw sustained strong TS winds during Irma.

I get it, but that’s a postage stamp size parcel of real estate. It’s tough to get a landfall in specific areas like that. The force field is a fun myth.

Anyway, 92L won’t be a LF threat to the E coast anyway.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1312441107507146752

[MarioProtVI]

Despite the favourable conditions models don’t even really seem to develop 92L. Wonder if there’s some underlying factor they’re seeing that we’re not?

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like Florida impacts once again are a no go with the latest EPS.

Ridge definitely a lot stronger this year.

However something tells me this will change tomorrow.

NAO is currently negative if that’s worth anything. Florida has been too luck for too long!

I'm not so sure if being hit by a cat 4 and then cat 5 in 2 consecutive years is "lucky". But I guess some people consider that lucky.

And quite a few EPS go towards FL.

[chaser1]

Some low to mid level spin is certainly evident around 14N and 72W however convection is getting sheared off to the NE at present. I haven't been able to see a long enough sat loop to determine whether this LLC/MLC has recently developed in this approx location, or if it in fact is moving steadily toward the NW or NNW. I just don't see upper level conditions as being conducive for rapid organization. 48 hours from now could pose a different upper level environment depending on how strong/weak Gamma is and how much further west Gamma might be at the time. I think Gamma will be most key to how 92L evolves and tracks.

[TheStormExpert]

:

The S FL peninsula just had a major landfall in 2017.

We are talking east coast metro areas of SFL dade and broward counties which believe it or not only saw sustained strong TS winds during Irma.

I get it, but that’s a postage stamp size parcel of real estate. It’s tough to get a landfall in specific areas like that. The force field is a fun myth.

Anyway, 92L won’t be a LF threat to the E coast anyway.

SE Florida has been way overdue for a hurricane. Fortunately this part of Florida hasn’t seen a landfalling hurricane since Katrina in 2005. Though Wilma that year did also bring hurricane conditions to parts of SE Florida.

[psyclone]

It is amazing the degree to which water temps over the northern gulf have been trashed. If this system attempts to head for the northern gulf it could be formidable depending on what happens beforehand...but it won't be a strengthening system like our other storms this year. About the only place that would allow that stateside would be south florida. even here in my region the water temps have slipped into the upper 70's...solidly below normal for this time of year. One huge advantage to being in a region with a back loaded high risk time (like the eastern gulf) is we have excellent opportunities for Autumn to run interference with dry air and degraded OHC. That is definitely the case this year and it stands in sharp contrast to recent freak heat fall seasons over the southeast like last year and '18. Here in Tampa bay we are in year 99 since a major impact and we are headed for the end zone century club. Here's to hoping this post doesn't come back to bite me. I bet it doesn't.