ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Interesting the 8am cone was reduced significantly now showing 92L only in the extreme SE GOM in 5 days vs being in the N Central GOM. They also noted 10-15 mph instead of 15mph and now WNW instead of W to WNW. Slowing down 92L.

[wxman57]

Interesting the 8am cone was reduced significantly now showing 92L only in the extreme SE GOM in 5 days vs being in the N Central GOM. They also noted 10-15 mph instead of 15mph and now WNW instead of W to WNW. Slowing down 92L.

That's not a 5-day track forecast, it's just a general indication of possible direction over the next few days. This looks very much like a weaker version of Marco. Strengthens to a TS in the Gulf north of western Cuba Tue/Wed then dissipates as it nears the northern Gulf coast late next week. Too much dry air and wind shear across the northern Gulf for it to survive there.

[Nimbus]

Interesting the 8am cone was reduced significantly now showing 92L only in the extreme SE GOM in 5 days vs being in the N Central GOM. They also noted 10-15 mph instead of 15mph and now WNW instead of W to WNW. Slowing down 92L.

With the model uncertainty its not a good day to be projecting cones with any kind of landfall preference.
WV imagery already starting to show a little migration of the tropical air mass back into the gulf.
Texas mets probably can go back to sleep though.

[boca]

92L still looks like a N Gulf coast system taking longer to get there.The pattern we are in is definitely not October due to no troughs whatsoever. This is just my opinion where I think this will go.

[aspen]

If 92L develops within the next 24 hours and stays on the southern side of its potential track, it’ll have 36-48 hours over water before entering the Gulf or clipping the SW tip of Cuba. Look at how much Gamma intensified in only 27 hours. With up to twice as long over 30C waters, 92L will need to be watched for RI, despite the global models being pretty bearish on intensity today.

[cp79]

92L still looks like a N Gulf coast system taking longer to get there.The pattern we are in is definitely not October due to no troughs whatsoever. This is just my opinion where I think this will go.

If it gets to the northern gulf it’ll be ripped apart as the Euro suggests. I hold that if this storm is going to have any chance of being a major storm and impact for US, it has to stay more in the SE or E Gulf. The closer it gets to La., the more it will get ripped apart. So I’m hoping that track pans out as it will increase the chances of this storm going poof.

[northjaxpro]

If 92L develops within the next 24 hours and stays on the southern side of its potential track, it’ll have 36-48 hours over water before entering the Gulf or clipping the SW tip of Cuba. Look at how much Gamma intensified in only 27 hours. With up to twice as long over 30C waters, 92L will need to be watched for RI, despite the global models being pretty bearish on intensity today.

I agree with you aspen. I think 92L has the opportunity to really intensify south of Jamaica and upper level conditions look really good the next couple of days for development as the system enters into the Western Caribbean. 92L is lookiing better even this morning for yours truly,

[SFLcane]

92L still looks like a N Gulf coast system taking longer to get there.The pattern we are in is definitely not October due to no troughs whatsoever. This is just my opinion where I think this will go.

Incredibly active season who would have thought Florida would be once again this lucky. Definitely not an October upper pattern. Wow

[cp79]

92L still looks like a N Gulf coast system taking longer to get there.The pattern we are in is definitely not October due to no troughs whatsoever. This is just my opinion where I think this will go.

Incredibly active season who would have thought Florida would be once again this lucky. Definitely not an October upper pattern. Wow

Yeah but it’s October in that the central Gulf is hostile. Honestly the central gulf is the best possible track we can hope for. If it were to go more East towards Fla it would stay strong but it’s entering the danger zone in the Gulf where it may get ripped to shreds. So I’d be fine with this track. The HWRF is on drugs if it thinks it’s gonna be a cane by the time it gets to NOLA.

[aspen]

Just like Gamma, Delta is probably going to peak in the Caribbean before weakening in the Gulf, but I don’t think it’ll be as weak as Gamma will end up being for two reasons:
1.) the Gulf could be slightly less hostile by 4-5 days out — not particularly conductive, but not filled with 50+ kt of shear and the driest air possible. The GFS has shown more moisture in the Gulf by the time Delta arrives and the cold front weakens.
2.) Delta could enter the Gulf as a much stronger system than Gamma. Assuming it forms by 24 hours out and misses the SW tip of Cuba, Delta could bomb out into a hurricane due to 30C SSTs, a favorable upper level pattern, and up to 48 hours in that environment.

If Delta doesn’t run into Cuba, it could end up like a stronger version of Marco: peaks as a hurricane before conditions in the northern half of the Gulf significantly weaken it. Also like Marco, conditions will prevent it from being another landfall RI system like Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, and Gamma...at least for the Gulf coast. Cuba will definitely need to keep a close eye on this.

[NevadaFan18]

Just like Gamma, Delta is probably going to peak in the Caribbean before weakening in the Gulf, but I don’t think it’ll be as weak as Gamma will end up being for two reasons:
1.) the Gulf could be slightly less hostile by 4-5 days out — not particularly conductive, but not filled with 50+ kt of shear and the driest air possible. The GFS has shown more moisture in the Gulf by the time Delta arrives and the cold front weakens.
2.) Delta could enter the Gulf as a much stronger system than Gamma. Assuming it forms by 24 hours out and misses the SW tip of Cuba, Delta could bomb out into a hurricane due to 30C SSTs, a favorable upper level pattern, and up to 48 hours in that environment.

If Delta doesn’t run into Cuba, it could end up like a stronger version of Marco: peaks as a hurricane before conditions in the northern half of the Gulf significantly weaken it. Also like Marco, conditions will prevent it from being another landfall RI system like Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, and Gamma...at least for the Gulf coast. Cuba will definitely need to keep a close eye on this.

Think there’s a possibility it gets hooked towards Florida?
It would be able to maintain its intensity better if it does that, the SSTs and UL pattern is far more favorable if it does that.

[aspen]

Just like Gamma, Delta is probably going to peak in the Caribbean before weakening in the Gulf, but I don’t think it’ll be as weak as Gamma will end up being for two reasons:
1.) the Gulf could be slightly less hostile by 4-5 days out — not particularly conductive, but not filled with 50+ kt of shear and the driest air possible. The GFS has shown more moisture in the Gulf by the time Delta arrives and the cold front weakens.
2.) Delta could enter the Gulf as a much stronger system than Gamma. Assuming it forms by 24 hours out and misses the SW tip of Cuba, Delta could bomb out into a hurricane due to 30C SSTs, a favorable upper level pattern, and up to 48 hours in that environment.

If Delta doesn’t run into Cuba, it could end up like a stronger version of Marco: peaks as a hurricane before conditions in the northern half of the Gulf significantly weaken it. Also like Marco, conditions will prevent it from being another landfall RI system like Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, and Gamma...at least for the Gulf coast. Cuba will definitely need to keep a close eye on this.

Think there’s a possibility it gets hooked towards Florida?
It would be able to maintain its intensity better if it does that, the SSTs and UL pattern is far more favorable if it does that.

I don’t know what impacts Florida could get. Any Gulf Coast landfall is 5, maybe 6 days out. Lots of time for things to change, especially for a system that hasn’t formed yet. Since there’s plenty of uncertainty, I’m only looking at what 92L’s track and environmental conditions will be like within the next 3 days, and it suggests the chance for another RIing system if it forms within a certain time frame and if it doesn’t make landfall in Cuba.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at satellite imagery this morning, 92L is beginning to get better organized structually as I am observing improved upper level outflow getting established with the system. I am definitely noting the upper level "fanning" of the cirrus clouds currently.

I think it is all systems a definite go for 92L to potentially become a very significant tropical cyclone in the coming days. Environmental conditions really.look good for this to intensify in the Western Caribbean.

[bella_may]

Well looks like a rain out Thursday and Friday lol

[bella_may]

FWIW the local met in Mobile didn’t sound too concerned about the strength of this due to dry air/cooler waters in the northern gulf. Should still bring some rain to the gulf coast though

[Ivanhater]

Looking like mainly a rain event for NW Florida if it comes up this way. After Sally, I think that is just fine for us.

[cp79]

Looking at satellite imagery this morning, 92L is beginning to get better organized structually as I am observing improved upper level outflow getting established with the system. I am definitely noting the upper level "fanning" of the cirrus clouds currently.

I think it is all systems a definite go for 92L to potentially become a very significant tropical cyclone in the coming days. Environmental conditions really.look good for this to intensify in the Western Caribbean.

It’s taking a beating from some shear to the north. The mid level is near Jamaica while the storms are further south. Gonna take another 24 hours before it gets in a better environment. Could struggle some today to get going. But tomorrow should be its day to get ramped up. Where the center actually forms will be important to its track.

[aspen]

The OHC map for Gamma is large enough to show the insanely high OHC that 92L/Delta will be passing through south of Cuba.

[NDG]

Looks like a TD to me already, at least fairly close to a closed circulation as I type this.

[Frank2]

GFS 06z run keeps it a weak system (too much shear): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 506&fh=360