Central Atlantic Tropical Wave

[HuracanMaster]

Wave looking rather strong this afternoon. Any model support for this?

[AJC3]

The global model guidance maintains a decent signature in the H85 vort fields for a few days, then dampen it out over the central Atlantic. While climatology and the model guidance argues aginst much happening with this wave, the seasonal caveat about how poorly the global models have been handling TC genesis in the MDR still applies here, so it'll still be an item of interest for the time being.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM Thu Oct 1 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 33W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 480 nm E of the wave axis.

[AJC3]

It makes sense, given how far south the convection on satellite imagery

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM Fri Oct 02 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
is possibly more closely related to the ITCZ.

[hurricanehunter69]

I'm surprised the models aren't more enthusiastic with this wave. Looks very healthy on mimic to me. Good energy, good spin. Put me down for development on this one. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2020

Shower activity has increased since yesterday in association with a
tropical wave located about midway between the coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of this system may
occur during the next several days as it moves generally westward
to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Ryxn]

Looks better than the Eastern Caribbean wave IMO. Though looks can be deceiving...

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system
is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to
15 mph, and some development is possible during the next couple of
days before it encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[us89]

Still 20/20 on the 8 pm:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to
15 mph. Significant development is not expected beyond that time
due to the system moving into a region of strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[us89]

And back to 0/0

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the
central tropical Atlantic have become limited today. The system is
moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and development of
this system is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.