ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/KalTellefsenWX/status/1312841946566713352

[Jr0d]

Still not impressive, however given the conditions, I am expecting a big convection burst overnightbwith D-max.

It seems like the models are struggling again with this one. I do think it will become Delta tomorrow and intensify quickly Tuesday night through Wednesday as a small storm.

With Gamma taking a jog to the northeast, I am worried this will cause 92L to be further east when it takes a turn north. This could bring much more weather to me in Key West Tuesday night through Wednesday if so. With 92L expected to stay small, I don't think we will get much, unless a drastic change in the forecast track happens.

With it being a small system it is more likely to rapidly intensify in my opinion, on the flip side land interaction with Cuba will also weaken the storm much more quickly.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1312848034837921792

[fci]

Could this be designated PTC-26 soon? It’s not far off from becoming a TC, and it’ll pass by Jamaica tomorrow.

Good call!

[ElectricStorm]

Could this be designated PTC-26 soon? It’s not far off from becoming a TC, and it’ll pass by Jamaica tomorrow.

Nailed it!

[aspen]

Could this be designated PTC-26 soon? It’s not far off from becoming a TC, and it’ll pass by Jamaica tomorrow.

Good call!

Wow, that was quick. Did they read my post? Lol

[ElectricStorm]

This will be an interesting first cone.

[tropicwatch]

Will be interesting to see what time frame they give it for approaching the northern gulf coast.

[edu2703]

First cone. Peak forecast at 85 kts

[aspen]

An 85 kt Cat 2 forecast peak for the first advisory of a Potential Tropical Cyclone...that’s very worrying.

The forecast track also gives PTC-26/Delta enough time to try and bomb out before making landfall in the extreme SW tip of Cuba. Another worrying detail.

[ElectricStorm]

First cone. Peak forecast at 85 kts

https://i.imgur.com/ma8hhsU.png

Yikes... Buckle up folks, we're in for a wild ride...

[Kazmit]

Judging by the trend of this year, it is not a good sign if the NHC forecasts a cat 2 on the first advisory. Especially since this is the gulf.

[Ivanhater]

Was not expecting that on the first advisory. Not feeling good being on the east side of a storm that models show hooking NE before landfall

[cajungal]

First cone. Peak forecast at 85 kts

https://i.imgur.com/ma8hhsU.png

That NE hook would be bad for Alabama/Pensacola who still have debris and clean up from Sally.

[kevin]

Didn't expect the NHC, who are usually relatively conservative in terms of intensity early on, to immediately go with 85 knots in their first advisory. This could become a very nasty storm.

[bella_may]

First cone. Peak forecast at 85 kts

https://i.imgur.com/ma8hhsU.png

That NE hook would be bad for Alabama/Pensacola who still have debris and clean up from Sally.

Mississippi too

[ElectricStorm]

Didn't expect the NHC, who are usually relatively conservative in terms of intensity early on, to immediately go with 85 knots in their first advisory. This could become a very nasty storm.

Even more so if it misses Cuba... After watching what Gamma did yesterday... The fact that 26 will have much more time to intensify is quite concerning

[wxman57]

I don't buy the Cat 2 near landfall at all. I think it will be a weakening TS as it nears LA. Similar to Marco, but could actually be a TS vs. Marco. Shear and dry air as it approaches the coast. Center may be displaced SW of the convection.

[bella_may]

I don't buy the Cat 2 near landfall at all. I think it will be a weakening TS as it nears LA. Similar to Marco, but could actually be a TS vs. Marco. Shear and dry air as it approaches the coast. Center may be displaced SW of the convection.

No offense but you also downplayed sally

[DestinHurricane]

Saturday is October 10. We've already had one storm hit on a big storms anniversary in the same place at nearly the same intensity (Ivan/Sally). Let's hope we don't have another.