ATL: DELTA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH AND THE CUBA PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LA
HABANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac.

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Isle of
Youth and the Cuba provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La
Habana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.7 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
disturbance is expected to pass near or just southwest of Jamaica
tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands
Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days and the
system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman
Islands, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba.

Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast
to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce
3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches
across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over
the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with
this system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Visible satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data indicated
that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure in the
central Caribbean Sea has gradually become better defined. The
associated deep convection does not yet have enough organization to
classify the system as a tropical depression, but there has been
some increase in convection just south of the estimated center. The
earlier ASCAT data revealed peak winds of around 30 kt over the
northeastern portion of the circulation, and that is the basis for
the initial intensity. The disturbance is located over warm waters
and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly
shear over the system. The global models indicate that the shear
will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment
is expected to quite favorable for both the development of a
tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. The
intensity guidance is quite aggressive, but also assumes that the
system already has a tropical cyclone structure. Therefore, the NHC
intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus during
the first 24-48 hours, but does show the system at or near hurricane
strength by the time is near western Cuba on Tuesday. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and additional strengthening is
predicted during that time. Late in the period, conditions are
forecast to become less conducive as the vertical wind shear
increases and the system nears the cooler shelf waters of the
northern Gulf of Mexico.

The disturbance is moving west-northwestward or 290/9 kt. A mid-
to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build
westward over the next few days, which should continue to steer the
system west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The forward speed
of the system is likely to increase in 48 to 72 hours while it
moves between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma to its southwest.
After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn
northward around the western portion of the ridge and a mid- to
upper-level trough over the south-central United States. The track
guidance is in relatively good agreement during the first 48 to 72
hours, but there is increasing spread thereafter. Users are
reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors
are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday
afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could
lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late
this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the
track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk
of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast
from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Six was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 77.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day
or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to pass just south of Jamaica through early Monday, move
near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle
of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system
is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days and the system is
forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands on
Monday, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this
system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Satellite data indicate that the disturbance just south of Jamaica
has become better organized this evening. Microwave and shortwave
infrared images indicate that the center is now well defined, and
deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the
center. Based on this data, the system now meets the criteria to be
considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30
kt for this advisory.

The depression is currently moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the
southern side of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed
is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, taking the system across
the Cayman Islands and toward western Cuba. Around the time the
depression is expected to be near western Cuba, the models show it
accelerating northwestward as it moves in the faster flow between
the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma. This motion should bring the
tropical cyclone into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or
early Wednesday. Later on, a notable slow down and a turn to the
north is forecast to occur late in the week when the depression will
likely be approaching the northern Gulf coast. This change in the
forecast motion is a result of the ridge weakening and a trough
approaching the cyclone from the west. The models are in relatively
good agreement, which is surprising since they often diverge for
weak systems, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

There is currently some northeasterly shear affecting the
depression, but the models all show the shear lessening by tomorrow
and remaining fairly light for the next few days. These improving
upper-level wind conditions combined with a moist air mass and warm
waters should allow for at least steady strengthening during the
next few days. By late in the week, when the storm is forecast to
approach the U.S. Gulf coast, there could be an increase in
southerly or southwesterly shear, which could limit additional
strengthening by that time. The NHC intensity forecast lies fairly
close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and shows the depression
becoming a hurricane near western Cuba with additional strengthening
over the Gulf of Mexico.

Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast
errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods,
respectively.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday
afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could
lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late
this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the
track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk
of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast
from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 78.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Six was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 78.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day
or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to move away from Jamaica through this morning, move near
or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle
of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical
cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the
Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or
over western Cuba on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant
flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall will be possible with this system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Deep convection has been steadily improving in both vertical depth
and structure, with the cloud pattern becoming more circular with
upper-level outflow now having become established in all quadrants.
However, there are still some indications in satellite imagery that
the low-level and the mid-/upper-level circulations are not yet
vertically aligned, with the low-level center still located just
inside the northern edge of the convective cloud shield. For now,
the initial intensity remains at 30 kt based on Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB and also UW-CIMSS ADT. However,
SATCON estimates suggest that the cyclone is close to tropical storm
status.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/08 kt. Even after
maintaining some continuity with the previous forecast, the initial
position had to be adjusted a little farther to the south and
west based on satellite animation, and the current position may
have to be adjusted farther south on the next forecast cycle due to
possible redevelopment of the center into the deep convective cloud
mass. Otherwise, the previous forecast track reasoning remains
essentially unchanged. The cyclone is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward along the southern side of a
deep-layer ridge for the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a
broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop across
northern Mexico and Texas, which is expected to create a break in
the ridge and turn the cyclone northward toward the north-central
Gulf coast. The steering flow pattern becomes a little complex on
days 2-3 due to expected binary interaction with Tropical Storm
Gamma or its remnants, which could result in a sharp westward jog,
after which a sharp turn back toward the northwest could occur.
However, the latest NHC model guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the cyclone will make a sharp northward turn between 90W-92W
longitude around 96 hours or so. Thereafter, acceleration toward
the north-northeast or northeast ahead of the approaching trough
and frontal system is anticipated. The new NHC forecast track is a
little to the left of the previous track through 72 hours, mainly
to account for the more westward initial position, and lies down
the middle of the tightly packed model guidance envelope.

The northeasterly deep-layer vertical wind shear that has been
plaguing the cyclone is finally showing signs of abating. The GFS-
and ECMWF-based SHIPS model guidance shows the shear decreasing to
near zero in the 24-48 hour period, which allow for some robust
intensification to occur, assuming that the inner-core wind field
becomes better defined later today. By 96 hours and beyond, the
SHIPS models are forecasting the shear to increase 20-30 kt from
the southwest, which would be expected to induce rapid weakening.
However, the SHIPS models appear to be creating too much shear
over the cyclone's center by incorporating jetstream winds of about
60 kt across Texas, whereas the 200-mb model fields only show winds
of 10-15 kt over the center by 96 hours. As a result, the new
intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to reach its peak
intensity in the 72-96 hour period, followed by weakening due to
likely cold upwelling of shallow cool shelf waters offshore the
southwest coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. The new NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the
upper end of the intensity guidance, similar to the
corrected-consensus model HCCA.

Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast
errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods,
respectively.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday
afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall
could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides.

4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late
this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the
track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk
of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast
from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.4N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 18.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 20.5N 83.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 22.5N 85.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.4N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 25.9N 90.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 91.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 32.4N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.4 West. The
storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A
faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to
move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman
Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western
Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and the tropical storm is expected to be a hurricane
when it moves near or over western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Delta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant
flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall will be possible with this system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
province of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning was also been
issued for the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward
motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica
later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday,
and approach western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is
forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane on
Tuesday before it nears western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south
coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected
within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday
morning. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth
beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could
lead to significant flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

The convective structure of Delta has continued to improve this
morning. Earlier microwave data and early-light visible satellite
imagery showed that the center of the tropical cyclone re-formed
farther south within the area of deep convection. Since that time,
banding has continued to increase around the southern and eastern
portion of the circulation, and a small CDO-like feature has formed.
The intensity has been set at 40 kt, which is a blend of the
subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective satellite
intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the tropical storm this afternoon, which
should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity,
structure, and wind field.

With the earlier center re-formation, the initial motion estimate is
a somewhat uncertain 280/6 kt. Delta is expected to resume a
west-northwestward motion later today. A northwestward heading
around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge should begin
tonight or Tuesday, and that general motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected to continue through 60-72 hours. After
that time, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over the south-central United States, which should weaken the
western portion of the ridge and cause Delta to turn northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast. After day 4, Delta should begin to
accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned trough. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the south and west of the previous advisory during the first
couple of days, primarily due to the recent center re-formation and
more southward initial position. After that time, the NHC track is
not much different than the previous forecast and lies near the
center of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope.

Delta is forecast to traverse very warm waters over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and be in a very low vertical wind shear environment
during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow for
significant strengthening during that time, and the NHC intensity
forecast is at or above the various intensity aids. It is somewhat
surprising that the intensity aids were generally a little lower
this cycle, but the expected low shear and SHIPS rapid
intensification index support the higher than climatological rate
of intensification. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear
and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to
induce some weakening later in the period. The updated NHC
intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 48-60 hours, but is similar to the previous advisory
thereafter.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today or tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect.

2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected in
portions of western Cuba by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall
could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is an increasing
risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the
coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in
these areas should monitor the progress of Delta and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 79.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 79.2 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward
motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later
today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and
approach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or
evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane tonight
or Tuesday before it nears western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south
coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected
within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday
morning. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth
beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could
lead to significant flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DELTA RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 79.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Tulum northward and westward to
Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest should occur this evening. A faster northwestward
motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest
of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday
afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the
southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be
over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is
expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected
to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
hurricane warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night, with
tropical storm conditions beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are expected within a portion of the the Hurricane
Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday night, with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday
afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and
mudslides.

Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy
rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta
has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary
convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what
appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There
are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to
be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently
collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55
kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to
southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb,
much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an
18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that
there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern
quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt.

Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for
strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or
less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These
conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a
better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed
over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by
calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and
Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or
over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once
the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours,
increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters
over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in
wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although
there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity
when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing
likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge
threat to a portion of that area.

The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears
to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true
storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain
275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening,
and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is
expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial
position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has
resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope
through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that
direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning
for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.
After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then
north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the
track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the
period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than
before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential
landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf
Coast.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and are
possible in extreme western Cuba beginning Tuesday night, and a
Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the
next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands beginning tonight or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA
HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 79.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 79.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass
southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the
northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan
Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday,
and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected
during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major
hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110
km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from data provided by the
NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
later tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
hurricane warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night, with
tropical storm conditions beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are expected within a portion of the the Hurricane
Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday night, with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday
afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and
mudslides.

Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy
rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 80.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar Del Rio and
discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the province of Artemisa and
the Isle of Youth.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Herrero northward to Tulum and from Rio Lagartos westward to
Progresso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Rio Lagartos to Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 80.3 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass
southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the
northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan
Channel Tuesday night. Delta is forecast to move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico late Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected
during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major
hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
by early Tuesday. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions
are expected in the warning area Tuesday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area Tuesday night and tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Tuesday night.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
maximum rainfall as high as 10 inches possible, across portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. This rainfall may
result in areas of significant flash flooding.

Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated
higher amounts, across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy
rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported
upgrading Delta to a hurricane. Very recent reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support
increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt. The minimum
pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is
now estimated to be 977 mb. Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate
of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago. The hurricane is
quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the
tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the
center.

After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAA
and the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed a
west-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated to
be 295/6 kt. Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairly
quick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between
a subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-Tropical
Cyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula. This motion
should take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday. After that time, the western part of the ridge
is expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across the
south-central U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause
Delta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulf
coast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little more
than 4 days. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC
track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one.

The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions of
low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm
29-30 C SSTs. These favorable environmental conditions for the
hurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, and
therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensification
will continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a major
hurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula.
If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temper
the cyclone's strength for a period of time. Beyond a few days,
when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, there
will likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear. These less
conducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end the
strengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or
intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150
miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the
next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands beginning early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.8N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DELTA
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 82.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Dzilam to Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.8 North,
longitude 82.0 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest
near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected
to begin later today through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest
of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast
to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when
it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along
coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area,
near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
today. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected
in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday.
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the
warning area and possible in the watch area near the same
time.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and
southeastern United States.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will be affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE DELTA IS
NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progresso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 82.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the
next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwest
motion is forecast to begin by late Wednesday or Wednesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue
to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands through early this
afternoon, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast
to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when
Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast
when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft data is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along
coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area,
near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
the Cayman Islands today. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane
conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later today or tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm
conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in
the watch area near the same time.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash
and urban flooding to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee
Valley, and southeastern United States.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Satellite imagery and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
show that Delta is a very symmetric and compact hurricane. The
aircraft reported a tiny 5-nmi-wide eye, which has also been
seen in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands, and there is a hint
of a pinhole eye in infrared satellite data. The central pressure
has continued to fall, with the lastest center dropwindsonde data
supporting a pressure of 955 mb. The plane has reported a peak
flight-level winds of 109 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 102 kt.
Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 100 kt, making Delta the
third major hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Delta has continued to rapidly strengthen over the past 24 hours,
with an estimated 55-kt increase in wind speed between 1200 UTC
Monday and 1200 UTC today. Environmental conditions of low
vertical wind shear, deep warm waters, and sufficient mid-level
moisture are expected to support additional rapid intensification
through today, and the only reason that the strengthening could
slow is if a difficult-to-predict eyewall replace cycle begins.
The SHIPS Rapid intensification index continues to indicate a high
likelihood of at least an additional 25-30 kt of intensity increase
before the system reaches the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is above the
various intensity aids and call for Delta to be an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan. It could
be stronger than indicated below since landfall is predicted to
occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast points. Some reduction in
intensity is likely when Delta moves over land, but the
environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are
expected to support re-strengthening, and the NHC intensity
forecast shows a second peak in 48-72 hours. As mentioned before,
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the
northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind
speed, but Delta is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when
it nears the northern Gulf coast.

Delta is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. A mid-level
ridge that extends westward across Florida and the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer Delta west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next couple of days. As the hurricane
nears the western portion of the ridge it should slow down. By
day three a developing trough over the south-central United States
is expected to cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern
Gulf coast. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48
hours, but there is still a fair amount of spread thereafter
regarding the timing and details of the northward turn. The ECMWF
and its ensemble mean are well west of the bulk of the remainder of
the guidance. The NHC track lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus
which is close to a blend of the GFS, HWRF, UKMET ensemble mean.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico beginning tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,
western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.
This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and
mudslides. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will
increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee
Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later
this week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 18.2N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 84.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the province of La Habana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progresso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.1 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion
is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected
Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to
move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and
approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible before the center reaches the coast Yucatan peninsula
Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over
the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the
hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba,
tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches to portions of the central
Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and
minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the
Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Shortly after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory package, the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind
of 132 kt, and during its final passage through the northeast
eyewall around 1700 UTC it reported a peak SFMR wind of 121 kt.
The aircraft continued to report an extremely small 4-to-5-nmi-wide
eye. The central pressure did level off somewhat on the final
couple of penetrations, with the latest reported central pressure
at 956 mb. The initial wind speed was raised to 120 kt on the
earlier intermediate advisory, and has been set at 125 kt for this
advisory. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission into the
hurricane is scheduled for this evening.

There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft
reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a
result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before
Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
tonight or early Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is once
again a little above the various intensity aids until landfall in
Mexico. When the small inner core of Delta moves over land,
weakening is expected, but warm waters and low vertical wind shear
over the southern Gulf of Mexico should support re-strengthening,
and a second peak in intensity is likely when Delta is over the
central Gulf of Mexico in 48-60 hours. After that time, increasing
southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the
northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed.
The global models, however, depict a significant increase in the
size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico,
which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind
threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's
final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane
is likely to result in a significant storm surge and wind event for
portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week.

Delta has been moving steadily west-northwestward today at 300/15
kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous
advisory. A mid-level ridge over Florida and the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico is expected to continue steering Delta west-northwestward
during the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a developing trough
over the south-central United States should cause Delta to turn
northward, and by Friday the hurricane is forecast to begin
accelerating northward or north-northeastward ahead of the trough.
This motion will bring Delta onshore along the northern Gulf coast
between 72 and 96 hours. The dynamical models continue to be
tightly clustered through 48-72 hours with some increase in spread
thereafter. The overall trend in the guidance has been slightly
westward, and the new forecast has been adjusted accordingly and
lies near the middle of the envelope. Supplemental upper-air balloon
launches at 0600 and 1800 UTC have begun at upper-air sites across
portions of the southeastern United States. In addition, a NOAA
G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is in progress and should provide
additional data for the 0000 UTC cycle of the dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind
damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,
western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.
This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and
mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor
river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf
Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta
moves inland later this week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane
watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.9N 84.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 23.0N 91.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.4N 92.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 93.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 28.0N 92.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 32.4N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 84.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North,
longitude 84.5 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a
northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday.
Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible before the
center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday.
Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan
peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves
over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday.
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the
warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the
central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash,
urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually
spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United
States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DELTA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 85.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 85.1 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the
next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is
expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over
the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, be over the
southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach
the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected
before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early
Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over
the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the
hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently measured a sustained wind of
65 mph (104 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area later tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical
storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the
central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash,
urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually
spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United
States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and conventional
and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Delta has not
intensified since earlier today. The central pressure has risen
somewhat and the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably
generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from
the NOAA plane. Although the hurricane continues to have very deep
convection near and over the center, the cloud pattern lacks
well-defined banding features, and an eye is not evident on either
geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite images. Surveillance
data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation
does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would
expect for a major hurricane. Given the current state of the
system, not much strengthening seems likely before the center
reaches northeastern Yucatan tomorrow morning. Some weakening is
likely due to the interaction with land during the next 12-18
hours. Re-intensification over the southern Gulf of Mexico is
still expected, but when Delta reaches the northern Gulf, lower
oceanic heat content is likely to cause at least slight weakening.
The official intensity forecast is somewhat above most of the model
guidance, but not much different from the regional hurricane
models, HWRF and HMON, over the northern Gulf.

Fixes from the aircraft indicate a continued west-northwestward
motion at just a slightly slower forward speed, 300/14 kt. The
track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged from earlier
today. Delta should move along and around the southwestern and
western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered just
east of Florida for the next couple of days. Around 72 hours, the
flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the south-central United
States should cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward
and move across the central Gulf coast late Friday or early
Saturday. The official track forecast remains close to the
dynamical model consensus, TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind
damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,
western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.
This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and
mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor
river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf
Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta
moves inland later this week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane
watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 85.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
545 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Corrected header time and time in the summary block

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUERTO MORELOS...

Satellite imagery, radar data from Cuba, and surface observations
in Mexico indicate that the center of Delta has made landfall along
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos
around 5:30 AM CDT (1030 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 110
mph (175 km/h), a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Puerto Morales recently reported
near calm winds and a minimum pressure of 972 MB (28.71 inches) in
the center.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun has reported peak
sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 106 mph (170
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 545 AM CDT...1045 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...DELTA BRINGING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS
TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 87.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by satellite images and surface observation inland over northeastern
Mexico near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 87.4 West. Delta is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the
next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is
likely Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Delta is forecast to move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern
Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although some additional weakening is likely when Delta
moves over the Yucatan peninsula this morning, re-strengthening is
forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4
hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta
approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A WeatherFlow observing site at Puerto Morelos,
Mexico, has recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h)
and a gust to 75 mph (122 km/h) after the passage of the center
over that location. A wind gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently
reported on Cozumel, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal
tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from
Cabo Catoche to Progreso, and 5 to 7 ft above normal tide levels
along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, dangerous hurricane conditions are
expected in portions of the warning area during the next few hours,
with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area to
continue for the next several hours. In Cuba, tropical storm
conditions could continue over far western portions of the island
during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding. In addition, 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, are expected across portions
of western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding
and mudslides.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding.
Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and
interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next
week.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...CENTER OF DELTA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast
from High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from
High Island, Texas, eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the Texas coast from
west of High Island to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has
also been issued along the northern Gulf coast from east of Grand
Isle, Louisiana, to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, including the
city of New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next 24
hours. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late Thursday,
and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on
Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta
will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over
the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and
approach the northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over
the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta
is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is
is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal
tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from
Cabo Catoche to Progreso, and 5 to 7 ft above normal tide levels
along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion
Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within
the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the next few
hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday
with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area
by Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As Delta moves
farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts,
is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean Sea today. Swell will begin to affect
portions of the northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Satellite and surface observations show that Delta made landfall
along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula around 1030
UTC near Puerto Morelos. A WeatherFlow observing site at Puerto
Morelos reported near calm winds and a minimum pressure of around
972 mb when the center passed that location. Another WeatherFlow
site near Cancun reported peak sustained winds of 73 kt with a gust
to 92 kt. Hurricane-force winds gusts were also reported at an
observing site on Cozumel. Since landfall, Delta has moved across
the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and is now about
the emerge off the northern coast of the peninsula into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Assuming some weakening has occurred, the
initial intensity has been set at 90 kt, but this could be a little
generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Delta early this afternoon. A NOAA P-3
aircraft has been preforming a Tail Doppler Radar mission this
morning.

Once Delta moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico, warm waters and
expected low vertical wind shear conditions are expected to allow
for re-strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. After 48
hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters over the
northern Gulf are likely to induce some weakening. The intensity
guidance has trended downward this cycle, and the NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly. Delta, however is still expected to
regain major hurricane status and the wind field is likely to grow
in size during its approach to the northern Gulf coast, which will
increase the storm surge and wind threats. Regardless of Delta's
landfall intensity, life-threatening storm surge and strong winds
are likely over a large portion of the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast, which has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge,
Hurricane, and Tropical Storm watches for portions of that area.

Delta is moving northwestward or 305/15 kt. The hurricane should
continue moving northwestward around the southwestern portion of a
subtropical ridge that extends over Florida and the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. After that time, a
developing mid-level trough over the south-central United States
should cause Delta to slow down and turn north-northwestward on
Thursday. Delta is forecast to begin accelerating northward or
north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf coast ahead of the
trough Thursday night and Friday. There has been little change to
the early portion of the track forecast, but there has been a little
westward shift in the guidance envelope after 24 hours, and the NHC
forecast has been moved in that direction. The new forecast track
lies near or just left of the TVCA multi-model consensus and a
little right of the HFIP corrected consensus aid, again close to the
GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and UKMet models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico into
early afternoon. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to significant
flash flooding, will affect the northern Yucatan Peninsula through
early Thursday.

2. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern
Gulf Coast, where there is an increasing likelihood of life-
threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast.
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect, and residents in
these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding is likely
Friday through Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast
northward into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley.
As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is
expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.4N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/0000Z 22.8N 90.2W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 08/1200Z 24.3N 92.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 26.0N 93.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 28.1N 93.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 30.8N 92.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 33.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 36.5N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...DELTA EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 89.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 89.5 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a reduction in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late
Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is
forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within
the hurricane watch area on Friday. Delta is forecast to move
inland within the hurricane watch area by late Friday or Friday
night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves
over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and
Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening
is is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula will gradually subside this evening.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion
Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within
portions of the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early
Friday with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane
watch area by Friday.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.

TORNADOES: The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late Thursday
night into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

The center of Delta has moved off the northern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula and is now located over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The
hurricane remains well organized in satellite imagery with a large
curved band wrapping around the center and a fairly symmetric CDO.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has provided a
few center fixes this afternoon, and found that Delta's passage
over land has resulted in weakening, and the initial wind speed is
set at 75 kt, which is based on a peak flight-level wind of 81 kt.
The aircraft also reported a minimum pressure of 977 mb on its
final center penetration, and data from the plane indicate that
there has been some increase in the radius of maximum winds.

Re-strengthening is anticipated over the next 24-36 hours while
Delta moves within a favorable upper-level environment and over the
relatively deep warm waters of the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico. Most of the intensity guidance brings Delta back up to
major hurricane status, and so does the official forecast. The
global models also significantly deepen Delta during the next 36
hours, lending confidence to re-intensification. After 36 hours,
increasing shear and cooler waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico
are likely to cause some decrease in intensity before Delta makes
landfall, however the hurricane's wind field is forecast to expand,
which will increase the storm surge and wind threats. Regardless of
Delta's landfall intensity, life-threatening storm surge and strong
winds are likely over a large portion of the northwestern and
northern Gulf coast.

Delta has been moving on a consistent northwestward heading of
305 degrees at about 15 kt. Delta should continue on this general
heading with some reduction in forward speed tonight and early
Thursday as it approaches the western extent of the subtropical
ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough over Texas is forecast to
slide eastward over the next couple of days, which is expected to
cause Delta to turn north-northwestward on Thursday, and northward
toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday. A faster northward to
north-northeastward motion in 48-60 hours will bring the center
onshore along the northern Gulf coast late Friday. The cross track
spread in the dynamical models has decreased this cycle, with the
model predictions converging on the previous NHC track forecast.
Therefore, little change has been made to the previous official
forecast, and it lies near the center of the now tightly clustered
guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Winds and water levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula will gradually subside this evening. Heavy rainfall,
which could lead to significant flash flooding, will affect the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday.

2. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern
Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for
portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches
are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials.

3. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central
Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley.
As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected
in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 22.1N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 23.2N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 24.8N 92.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 26.7N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 29.1N 92.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 31.6N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 33.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 90.9W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast from east of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the northern Gulf
of Mexico coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass, and east
of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Rio Lagartos to Dzilam, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne,
and Mobile Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, TX to Sabine Pass
* East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 90.9 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A generally
northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday. A north-northwestward motion is expected by
late Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion
is forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Delta is forecast to move
inland within the hurricane warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over the
southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta is
expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is
forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area earlier on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on
Friday.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain over the far northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through early
Thursday. The additional rainfall may still result in areas of
significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.

TORNADOES: The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late Thursday
night into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Delta is gradually strengthening while it
moves over the open waters of the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Based on a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR wind
measurements from the plane, the current intensity is set at 80 kt.
The cloud pattern of the hurricane continues to become better
organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense
Overcast, and convective banding features becoming better defined,
particularly over the northern semicircle of the circulation.
Additional intensification is likely while Delta moves through a
favorable environment during the next day or so, and the official
forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.
When the system moves into the northern Gulf, a decrease in oceanic
heat content, drier mid-tropospheric air, and increased vertical
shear should cause at least slow weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is above the numerical guidance in 36-48 hours. It should
be noted that 1-2 day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are
subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.

The global models show a further increase in the size of the
hurricane while it moves into the northern Gulf. The official wind
radii forecasts are based on a consensus of these model predictions.

The latest center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters show a
west-northwestward motion, at about 300/15 kt. Delta should turn
toward the north-northwest and north over the next 36 hours or so
while moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high
pressure system centered over Florida. When the hurricane moves
into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Delta should turn
toward the north-northeast on the southeastern side of a
mid-tropospheric shortwave over the southern United States. The
official track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, respectively.
These objective aids are in close agreement with one another.

Based on the official forecast, it is time to issue storm surge and
hurricane warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast.


Key Messages:

1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern
Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for
portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to
completion.

2. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central
Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley.
As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected
in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 22.5N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 23.7N 92.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 30.0N 92.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 34.2N 89.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 37.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch