ATL: DELTA - Models

[sphelps8681]

Three years ago today we were watching Tropical Storm Nate with the same cone of landfall. Showed up in my FB memories.

[p1nheadlarry]

Not to scare anybody but the setup on Thursday looks very alarming.
It is likely Delta will rapidly intensify then.
Will be in the middle of an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break with a massive feed of very high CAPE air.
Rossby Wave looks relatively weak and far enough away to enhance outflow.
An UL Low over Haiti could drive a poleward outflow channel.
Troposphere is forecasted to be entirely saturated.

Does the RW aid in the PV annihilation above the storm (in addition to latent heating)? That's a fairly high tropopause.

[stormlover2013]

Euro 06 ensembles shifted west also

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Quite sure we will see at least a couple of days of small windshield wiper moves by the models.

[GCANE]

Not to scare anybody but the setup on Thursday looks very alarming.
It is likely Delta will rapidly intensify then.
Will be in the middle of an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break with a massive feed of very high CAPE air.
Rossby Wave looks relatively weak and far enough away to enhance outflow.
An UL Low over Haiti could drive a poleward outflow channel.
Troposphere is forecasted to be entirely saturated.

Does the RW aid in the PV annihilation above the storm (in addition to latent heating)? That's a fairly high tropopause.

I think the RW is too far away to influence the PVS.

[NDG]

For whatever they are worth 06z Euro ensembles shifted west, they are usually west biased as we have seen before in this area.

[LarryWx]

For whatever they are worth 06z Euro ensembles shifted west, they are usually west biased as we have seen before in this area.

https://i.imgur.com/kKv1CjQ.png

I think the west shift is due to the current movement tracking SW of earlier projections. So, it makes sense. The 6Z GEFS also shifted a bit west of earlier runs.

[SoupBone]

For whatever they are worth 06z Euro ensembles shifted west, they are usually west biased as we have seen before in this area.

https://i.imgur.com/kKv1CjQ.png

May be west biased but that's a huge shift west, putting SE Texas back in play.

[Jag95]

Just don't need this, just buried my father here today in Niceville, FL.

Sorry to hear that Dean. I went through that a couple of years ago and it's tough. Condolences.

I've been kind of ignoring the tropics after Sally and falsely hoping the year was done.

[stormlover2013]

All depends where the track goes through channel.

[NDG]

A closer look at the 12z TVCN.
An experimental model that I am keeping an eye on is the CTCX model which did very well with Sally, it was persistent with it making landfall in the Mobile Bay area ever since it entered the GOM while the rest of the models were over SE LA. Lets see if it is the same case this time, though it did not do so well with the past few storms in the GOM, it was very inconsistent with the forecast track at times.

[plasticup]

Not to scare anybody but the setup on Thursday looks very alarming.
It is likely Delta will rapidly intensify then.
Will be in the middle of an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break with a massive feed of very high CAPE air.
Rossby Wave looks relatively weak and far enough away to enhance outflow.
An UL Low over Haiti could drive a poleward outflow channel.
Troposphere is forecasted to be entirely saturated.

https://i.imgur.com/k9mcelk.png

https://i.imgur.com/l4KqJ3V.png

https://i.imgur.com/TdHamGG.png

https://i.imgur.com/JXTUNKx.png

https://i.imgur.com/OPzSJG8.png

https://i.imgur.com/HlNXs9p.png

You aren't buying the high-shear predictions?

[GCANE]

Not to scare anybody but the setup on Thursday looks very alarming.
It is likely Delta will rapidly intensify then.
Will be in the middle of an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break with a massive feed of very high CAPE air.
Rossby Wave looks relatively weak and far enough away to enhance outflow.
An UL Low over Haiti could drive a poleward outflow channel.
Troposphere is forecasted to be entirely saturated.

https://i.imgur.com/k9mcelk.png

https://i.imgur.com/l4KqJ3V.png

https://i.imgur.com/TdHamGG.png

https://i.imgur.com/JXTUNKx.png

https://i.imgur.com/OPzSJG8.png

https://i.imgur.com/HlNXs9p.png

You aren't buying the high-shear predictions?

I see it far away from any 355K PV interference and it is forecasted to be in the middle of an ARWB.
Under those conditions, shear will likely be pushed out of the way by the TC.
IF the Rossby Wave changes from the forecast, then shear could become a problem.

[Cyclenall]

Not to scare anybody but the setup on Thursday looks very alarming.
It is likely Delta will rapidly intensify then.
Will be in the middle of an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break with a massive feed of very high CAPE air.
Rossby Wave looks relatively weak and far enough away to enhance outflow.
An UL Low over Haiti could drive a poleward outflow channel.
Troposphere is forecasted to be entirely saturated.

Is it okay to bump this quote on Thursday to see if it evolved like you laid out here so well? Your analysis is incredible and no matter what you're amazing.

[GCANE]

Not to scare anybody but the setup on Thursday looks very alarming.
It is likely Delta will rapidly intensify then.
Will be in the middle of an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break with a massive feed of very high CAPE air.
Rossby Wave looks relatively weak and far enough away to enhance outflow.
An UL Low over Haiti could drive a poleward outflow channel.
Troposphere is forecasted to be entirely saturated.

Is it okay to bump this quote on Thursday to see if it evolved like you laid out here so well? Your analysis is incredible and no matter what you're amazing.

Sure OK to bump. Much thanks for the complement.

[SoupBone]

The GFS has it skirting the tip of the Yuacatan between 42-48 hours. More west again...

[kevin]

12z GFS is much further SW, almost touching Yucatan (it think it might have even barely made landfall there this run). Also enters the Gulf further South due to this and almost seems headed towards Texas atm, but I expect a NE turn soon so I don't think it'll actually get there.

[Stormcenter]

GFS coming in much stronger this run.

[MJGarrison]

12Z hits LA in roughly the same location but 6 to 12 hours later, and as mentioned, stronger.


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[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS looks like landfall between Morgan City and Houma @ 960mb