ATL: DELTA - Models

[tailgater]

Deleted

[kevin]

Follow-up on the previous post, 12z GFS landfalls Delta near Morgan City as a 960 mbar hurricane. Peaks at 957 mbar at 84 hours, the strongest GFS run to date.

[MississippiWx]

12Z hits LA in roughly the same location but 6 to 12 hours later, and as mentioned, stronger.


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Yeah, ~960mb at landfall as opposed to ~985mb previous run. Wow.

[tailgater]

Follow-up on the previous post, 12z GFS landfalls Delta near Morgan City as a 960 mbar hurricane. Peaks at 957 mbar at 84 hours, the strongest GFS run to date.

https://i.imgur.com/Ufnpm7V.png

Wow, I was just telling the wife a week ago we should be okay after having Laura to the west and Sally to the east and a big time cold front well into the GOM. I know it’s still early but I’m not feeling so lucky today.

[otowntiger]

Follow-up on the previous post, 12z GFS landfalls Delta near Morgan City as a 960 mbar hurricane. Peaks at 957 mbar at 84 hours, the strongest GFS run to date.

https://i.imgur.com/Ufnpm7V.png

That’s not a good run for my friends and family in the greater Baton Rouge metro area

[cp79]

Not gonna lie...I’m shocked at the westerly shifts esp with the slower movement this morning. I don’t know if that’s good for the health of the system as the water is cooler and conditions not as good there (which is good news for the GC), but the models seem to indicate it will hold together. Just very skeptical but they know more than me.

[Wx_Warrior]

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Seems so often that the MS/AL to Mobile area has been fortunate to dodge a direct hit from so many storms, including Sally, and that's what bothers me here. Many have taken a NE Jog to NE turn just prior to making a direct Mobile hit.

When & where the NNE to NE curve begins will mean so much to so many.

[tailgater]

[SoupBone]

Interesting that even with the models trending west, they still cluster mostly around each other this many days out. Are they doing a better job of the steering currents than with previous systems?

[ColdMiser123]

TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 78.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2020 0 16.4N 78.5W 1004 34
0000UTC 06.10.2020 12 16.9N 80.2W 1001 34
1200UTC 06.10.2020 24 18.2N 82.2W 998 35
0000UTC 07.10.2020 36 20.3N 84.6W 995 39
1200UTC 07.10.2020 48 22.2N 87.4W 984 49
0000UTC 08.10.2020 60 23.9N 90.0W 976 55
1200UTC 08.10.2020 72 24.7N 91.9W 972 64
0000UTC 09.10.2020 84 25.3N 92.1W 969 63
1200UTC 09.10.2020 96 27.3N 91.6W 960 69
0000UTC 10.10.2020 108 29.9N 90.6W 971 57
1200UTC 10.10.2020 120 32.0N 89.6W 992 32
0000UTC 11.10.2020 132 33.1N 87.7W 998 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 144 34.5N 85.6W 1002 22

[MississippiWx]

Interesting that even with the models trending west, they still cluster mostly around each other this many days out. Are they doing a better job of the steering currents than with previous systems?

Well, the steering is much more straight forward than with a storm like Sally. Steering collapsed with Sally while this time there is a fairly obvious break in the ridge for Delta to go through. The location of this break will be the only debate between models. The trough to the west is not particularly strong which might be the reason why we don't see hard right turns in models guidance. I'm feeling a little more uneasy than I was yesterday, but I keep expecting a hard right shift in the models since it's October. Hasn't happened...yet.

[Cataegis96]

Looks like the CMC has joined the western trend and even maintains strength into landfall around Terrebonne Bay.

[Cataegis96]

TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 78.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2020 0 16.4N 78.5W 1004 34
0000UTC 06.10.2020 12 16.9N 80.2W 1001 34
1200UTC 06.10.2020 24 18.2N 82.2W 998 35
0000UTC 07.10.2020 36 20.3N 84.6W 995 39
1200UTC 07.10.2020 48 22.2N 87.4W 984 49
0000UTC 08.10.2020 60 23.9N 90.0W 976 55
1200UTC 08.10.2020 72 24.7N 91.9W 972 64
0000UTC 09.10.2020 84 25.3N 92.1W 969 63
1200UTC 09.10.2020 96 27.3N 91.6W 960 69
0000UTC 10.10.2020 108 29.9N 90.6W 971 57
1200UTC 10.10.2020 120 32.0N 89.6W 992 32
0000UTC 11.10.2020 132 33.1N 87.7W 998 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 144 34.5N 85.6W 1002 22

Goes in around Houma.

[Steve]

^^ That clustering is tight as **** for 5 days. We've seen that happen before and be right. And we've seen it happen where a consensus track jumped east or west and deviated from the consensus.

Here's the current 12z Model Run Synopsis with the Hurricanes and EC yet to run.

ICON - landfalls Saturday morning around Cocodrie, LA as a loose and weak system (+/- 1000mb). Of note, ICON gets fairly far west in the Gulf before making the NE turn. It never gets it very strong. I'm also not taking this run all that seriously as it's almost a daughter of Delta and Gamma that emerges to hit the LA Coast. Take away from ICON is that because it's got a weaker storm, it probably gets a little farther west than some of the other models. Also its merger with Gamma (which almost appears to be the primary storm as they couple - haha) keeps it loose and weak.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=120

GFS - GFS has Gamma eat Delta. It sinks it into the 960's but is quickly back up to 975 right after landfall. Solid Cat 2 on the GFS. GFS does not get as far west as ICON and is stronger. Consequently, it landfalls 18 or so hours (noon Friday) earlier than ICON but at about the same place and stronger.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=102

CMC - Canadian is looser and weaker than the GFS but stronger than the ICON in the upper 980's. Track moved west a bit from earlier runs. Landfall takes place around midnight Friday night so a half day later than the GFS and several hours earlier than ICON. Delta absorbs Gamma.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=114

NAM 12km - Only goes out to 84 hours, but it's pretty similar to the rest of the models above - maybe a compromise between the CMC and ICON for strength and location.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=84

HMON and HWRF are running now and both about a day to day and a half into their runs. Give those about 20 minutes to get those next few plots updated. FWIW, HMON has pressure falling and the system at 984mb at 39 hours (10pm Tuesday Night). HWRF is out to 27 hours and has it at 995 with the strong drop in pressure in the W Car not yet having occurred.

[Steve]

HMON 48 hours has pressure still falling and into the 970's.

[3090]

Not gonna lie...I’m shocked at the westerly shifts esp with the slower movement this morning. I don’t know if that’s good for the health of the system as the water is cooler and conditions not as good there (which is good news for the GC), but the models seem to indicate it will hold together. Just very skeptical but they know more than me.

Do not look at the short term speed. The longer out forecast speed indicates a very strong steering pattern; thus a rapidly moving very strong hurricane. Whatever peak intensity it may reach it will not have a long time to diminish in intensity due to its rapid forward speed.

[aspen]

While the HMON is back to showing a powerful hurricane, the HWRF is not. This might be a several run mishap like with Teddy; it originally predicted a bombing out Cat 4 just like what we got, but then switched to a weaker Cat 2/3 with a massive eye for the same time frame. The previous Cat 4 runs turned out to verify.

[TheProfessor]

While the HMON is back to showing a powerful hurricane, the HWRF is not. This might be a several run mishap like with Teddy; it originally predicted a bombing out Cat 4 just like what we got, but then switched to a weaker Cat 2/3 with a massive eye for the same time frame. The previous Cat 4 runs turned out to verify.

It did something very similar with Sally as well.

[Steve]

Evidence for aspen's post on the previous page:

HMON @ 51 hours



HWRF @ 51 hours