ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Kimberlain is extremely bullish

https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1313158454220066817?s=21

That's the most bullish I've ever seen from one of those guys in the few years I've tracked storms... Ominous indeed.

[Steve]

Todd Kimberlain, for the uninitiated, is a former NHC hurricane specialist. Rather ominously bold wording.

NVM. I found it on the last page. Thanks.

[TallyTracker]

Kimberlain is extremely bullish

https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1313158454220066817?s=21

That’s a disturbing statement. 60 kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours would make Delta a 100 kt major hurricane. Definitely not out of the question, but quite a bold prediction nonetheless. We’ll see how it ages...

[ElectricStorm]

The IR hole from the PVS is just about gone.

I don't know a whole lot about PVS... But does this mean that once it's gone, Delta will have a more favorable environment to RI?

Absolutely

Dang... Like I said last night... This storm is more and more concerning by the minute it seems.

[edu2703]

Recon took off. Should arrive in a few hours.

[HurricaneEnzo]

PVS is decoupling from the UL Trof

https://i.imgur.com/8z1PZgG.gif

Almost go time for Delta

[CyclonicFury]

Delta is quite possibly the most impressive looking tropical cyclone in this part of the basin in quite some time. I would not be surprised if it ends the NW Caribbean major hurricane drought.

[aspen]

I’m going to predict recon will find a 55 kt/992 mbar TS when it arrives. I can’t wait for one or both of my predicted values to be totally wrong. My pressure estimate might be too high if the background pressures for Delta are low like with Gamma.

[kevin]

The only thing holding it back atm is the PVS, which is almost done decoupling. Once this one gets going, it's gonna be like ballet dancers pulling in their arms. Kimberlain's statement is a bold one, but I feel it's one that's very possible.

[MarioProtVI]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1313165709241876480




That’s....not good...

[Aric Dunn]

You all ready for Hurricane Delta when recon gets there ?

[kevin]

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1313165709241876480?s=19

That’s....not good...

Wilma 2: electric boogaloo. Would definitely fit with everything else that happened in 2020. Let's not go there yet as it's not even a hurricane at the moment, but the signs are definitely not good.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

As noted, Delta has a very similar structure to TS Wilma in 2005 at this point. Environment looks primed for RI before reaching the Gulf, where shear may be waiting for it along the Gulf Coast.

[supercane4867]

The current structure of Delta does remind me of Wilma in her early stage



If anyone needs a flashback:

[p1nheadlarry]

The IR hole from the PVS is just about gone.

I don't know a whole lot about PVS... But does this mean that once it's gone, Delta will have a more favorable environment to RI?

Absolutely

Does this also help Delta's outflow from a WISHE perspective? As you pointed out, PVS mixes in low theta-e air in the storm's environment; if that is gone, parcels conserving theta-e likely have a trajectory further out from the storm center.

[GCANE]

Dang, I just noticed this.
I mentioned this morning that Delta has picked up an infeed of high TPW air from the EPAC thru Panama.
It now looks like Gamma is funneling all the high TPW air that converged along the cold front into Delta as well.
Two major nearly unlimited infeeds and about to go over the highest OHC water in the Atlantic.
A Wilma analog may not be out of the question.

[ElectricStorm]

Dang, I just noticed this.
I mentioned this morning that Delta has picked up an infeed of high TPW air from the EPAC thru Panama.
It now looks like Gamma is funneling all the high TPW air that converged along the cold front into Delta as well.
Two major nearly unlimited infeeds and about to go over the highest OHC water in the Atlantic.
A Wilma analog may not be out of the question.

https://i.imgur.com/EOMWu4E.png

The fact that this storm has similar characteristics to the strongest Atlantic storm recorded is quite disturbing... I think tomorrow is going to be an absolutely insane day for this storm... Stay tuned.

[edu2703]

2:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 5
Location: 16.1°N 79.2°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[HurricaneEnzo]

Wilma is THE storm in the Atlantic. Unlikely this storm approaches that level just because the odds mathematically are against it. We could get an absolute beast though and the way it sounds Cat 5 might not be out of range for Delta. With an very outside chance of Wilma level beast.

[GCANE]

I don't know a whole lot about PVS... But does this mean that once it's gone, Delta will have a more favorable environment to RI?

Absolutely

Does this also help Delta's outflow from a WISHE perspective? As you pointed out, PVS mixes in low theta-e air in the storm's environment; if that is gone, parcels conserving theta-e likely have a trajectory further out from the storm center.

Outflow is high up in the troposphere.
WISHE is heat exchange of the water to the air induced by high-speed winds.
This occurs at the ocean surface and the troposphere boundary layer.
The parcel trajectory comes from the cold pool over the CoC creating buoyancy.
The warm-core above the cold pool then slings the parcels away from the CoC as they move higher into the troposphere which creates the outflow.