ATL: DELTA - Models

[stormlover2013]

euro ensembles shifted west again

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro ensembles

[SoupBone]

12z Euro ensembles

https://imgur.com/V9h2455

That is a huge shift west, bringing SE Texas, and definitely extreme west Lousisiana into play.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Central to SE LA maybe? Sure looking that way.

[MississippiWx]

Euro and its west bias this year. So odd.

Could be right, but seems unlikely with a fairly deep trough to the west and increasing southwesterly shear on approach to landfall.

[NDG]

12z Euro ensembles

https://imgur.com/V9h2455

That is a huge shift west, bringing SE Texas, and definitely extreme west Lousisiana into play.

Euro ensembles have been big time west biased all season long when systems start heading poleward around the ridges, if I was in SE TX I would not worry at this time unless most of the ensembles shift to the west of you

[NDG]

The Bermuda once again saves the FL Peninsula despite the current slight -NAO.

[stormlover2013]

12z Euro ensembles

https://imgur.com/V9h2455

That is a huge shift west, bringing SE Texas, and definitely extreme west Lousisiana into play.

Euro ensembles have been big time west biased all season long when systems start heading poleward around the ridges, if I was in SE TX I would not worry at this time unless most of the ensembles shift to the west of you

any storm that gets in the gulf I watch, 2020 has been wild

[TheStormExpert]

The Bermuda once again saves the FL Peninsula despite the current slight -NAO.

https://i.imgur.com/U7DwHww.gif

Teleconnections have been doing the reverse of what they normally do in their given state. We’re in a +NAO most of September and saw an East Coast trough while earlier on in the season and now with a -NAO the Bermuda High flexes itself.

[TheStormExpert]

Hopefully some of that cooler than average SST’s due to recent frontal passages and potential wind shear arrive to save the day for folks along the northern Gulf Coast! Unfortunately Delta will be moving swiftly along unlike Sally.

[TallahasseeMan]

I think once the data from recon is inputted we will have a better idea of intensity forecasts going forward. I'm not buying HWRF unless it continues this trend through 0z

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro ensembles

https://imgur.com/V9h2455

It’s as if Gamma pulls Delta more west. Can’t remember ever seeing a hurricane threat to the NW Gulf Coast in October. Typically this part of the Gulf is closed for business by now.

[TexasBreeze]

Does anyone know of the progress report of the LCH radar dome rebuild? Considering more of possibly SW LA in play from today's models, missing radar data will hurt.

[sphelps8681]

Does anyone know of the progress report of the LCH radar dome rebuild? Considering more of possibly SW LA in play from today's models, missing radar data will hurt.

I follow the US National Weather Service out of LCH and they have a video of the progress. Don't think a new one is up yet.

[CrazyC83]

12z Euro ensembles

https://imgur.com/V9h2455

It’s as if Gamma pulls Delta more west. Can’t remember ever seeing a hurricane threat to the NW Gulf Coast in October. Typically this part of the Gulf is closed for business by now.

The last time was Jerry in 1989. But it's 2020 so why not break the rules?

[p1nheadlarry]

The Bermuda once again saves the FL Peninsula despite the current slight -NAO.

https://i.imgur.com/U7DwHww.gif

Teleconnections have been doing the reverse of what they normally do in their given state. We’re in a +NAO most of September and saw an East Coast trough while earlier on in the season and now with a -NAO the Bermuda High flexes itself.

Could be wrong, but NAO/AO signal has stronger correlations in winter by quite a bit. NAO especially flips sign more frequently too.

[CrazyC83]

Upper level steering for strong, deep hurricanes. This may be what the Euro ensembles are sniffing.

[stormlover2013]

GFS para shifts west alsol

[BigB0882]

Unless this continues going West then I am getting more and more concerned that Baton Rouge may end up being on the bad side. Never thought I would be thinking this in October.

[bella_may]

Models have been so bad this season. Will probably shift back east tonight