2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Shell Mound]

Quite a lot of shear out in the Atlantic right now. Definitely more El Niño-ish.

https://i.imgur.com/94uhvWn.gif

https://i.imgur.com/O1u5Tc7.gif

I doubt that the phase of the MJO and/or the passage of a downwelling CCKW, either alone or by themselves, can account for such high VWS during La Niña.

[CyclonicFury]

Quite a lot of shear out in the Atlantic right now. Definitely more El Niño-ish.

https://i.imgur.com/94uhvWn.gif

https://i.imgur.com/O1u5Tc7.gif

I doubt that the phase of the MJO and/or the passage of a downwelling CCKW, either alone or by themselves, can account for such high VWS during La Niña.

We just had a near hurricane and the potential for a rapidly intensifying storm over the NW Caribbean in the span of a few days. Both had very low shear in the NW Caribbean. Definitely seems El Niñoish to me

[weeniepatrol]

Definitely seems El Niñoish to me

In fact, as one should anticipate after CPC has declared a La Nina, conditions in reality very much appear like those of a La Nina. Shocking.

[tolakram]

Quite a lot of shear out in the Atlantic right now. Definitely more El Niño-ish.

https://i.imgur.com/94uhvWn.gif

https://i.imgur.com/O1u5Tc7.gif

I doubt that the phase of the MJO and/or the passage of a downwelling CCKW, either alone or by themselves, can account for such high VWS during La Niña.

We just had a near hurricane and the potential for a rapidly intensifying storm over the NW Caribbean in the span of a few days. Both had very low shear in the NW Caribbean. Definitely seems El Niñoish to me

Agreed, short term vs long term analysis. There's shear every year, and especially when the first cold front comes down.

Caribbean shear remains mostly below normal.


Gulf shear is above normal but dropping. A quick squiggle analysis seems to indicate gulf shear slightly above normal this year, but variable as usual.

[TheStormExpert]

Quite a lot of shear out in the Atlantic right now. Definitely more El Niño-ish.

https://i.imgur.com/94uhvWn.gif

https://i.imgur.com/O1u5Tc7.gif

I doubt that the phase of the MJO and/or the passage of a downwelling CCKW, either alone or by themselves, can account for such high VWS during La Niña.

We just had a near hurricane and the potential for a rapidly intensifying storm over the NW Caribbean in the span of a few days. Both had very low shear in the NW Caribbean. Definitely seems El Niñoish to me

Shear has quieted down some basin-wide compared to when I made that post several days ago.

[ElectricStorm]

I doubt that the phase of the MJO and/or the passage of a downwelling CCKW, either alone or by themselves, can account for such high VWS during La Niña.

We just had a near hurricane and the potential for a rapidly intensifying storm over the NW Caribbean in the span of a few days. Both had very low shear in the NW Caribbean. Definitely seems El Niñoish to me

Shear has quieted down some basin-wide compared to when I made that post several days ago.

The Atlantic saw you post and said "Hold my beer"!

[Hammy]

I doubt that the phase of the MJO and/or the passage of a downwelling CCKW, either alone or by themselves, can account for such high VWS during La Niña.

We just had a near hurricane and the potential for a rapidly intensifying storm over the NW Caribbean in the span of a few days. Both had very low shear in the NW Caribbean. Definitely seems El Niñoish to me

Shear has quieted down some basin-wide compared to when I made that post several days ago.

It does seem to fluctuate more in October than during the peak of season, likely due to there being more troughiness and faster moving pattern.

[Steve]

I feel like it's safe to say we won't see another season like 2020 in most of our lifetimes. Maybe most individual storms weren't superman storms, but the season is without compare. We'll get our record setting US landfall - 10 - later this week.

Consider back to before Laura and before Sally (and now before Delta). Cold front comes down with a big cold high behind it. Hurricanes have been the response out of the tropics. I don't even think we're finished up with the pattern yet. Maybe Delta takes the majority of the rest of the energy out of the Gulf, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more fronts come down with responses in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic. Easy shot at another landfall after Delta and certainly there should be some threat level for the islands and US East Coast before October is done. Still no sign of MJO going into super favorable as it's still stuck in Phase 5. BUT, several of the models rotate it to 6 and 7 in the next week or so. If it continues around the grid to 8-1-2-3, expect another burst of multiple (2, 3 or 4) systems yet to happen.

[TheStormExpert]

I feel like it's safe to say we won't see another season like 2020 in most of our lifetimes. Maybe most individual storms weren't superman storms, but the season is without compare. We'll get our record setting US landfall - 10 - later this week.

Consider back to before Laura and before Sally (and now before Delta). Cold front comes down with a big cold high behind it. Hurricanes have been the response out of the tropics. I don't even think we're finished up with the pattern yet. Maybe Delta takes the majority of the rest of the energy out of the Gulf, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more fronts come down with responses in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic. Easy shot at another landfall after Delta and certainly there should be some threat level for the islands and US East Coast before October is done. Still no sign of MJO going into super favorable as it's still stuck in Phase 5. BUT, several of the models rotate it to 6 and 7 in the next week or so. If it continues around the grid to 8-1-2-3, expect another burst of multiple (2, 3 or 4) systems yet to happen.

We said this about 2005 and look what happened!

Never say never in the Tropics!

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1313505893078556678

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like we got that Western Caribbean monster everyone was wondering if we’d see due to the high Ocean Heat Content in that region.

[JPmia]

Looks like we got that Western Caribbean monster everyone was wondering if we’d see due to the high Ocean Heat Content in that region.

Yes, but I am still surprised that a year with hyperactivity has no FL Peninsula hurricanes. Look back on all the previous hyperactive years and FL Peninsula is a target among all of the other usual spots. I find this to be a fascinating aspect to this season so far.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like we got that Western Caribbean monster everyone was wondering if we’d see due to the high Ocean Heat Content in that region.

Yes, but I am still surprised that a year with hyperactivity has no FL Peninsula hurricanes. Look back on all the previous hyperactive years and FL Peninsula is a target among all of the other usual spots. I find this to be a fascinating aspect to this season so far.

Same. Both 1933 and 2005 featured multiple hurricane threats to the Florida peninsula in both given years. This is some sort of outstanding luck if we manage to go untouched when all is said and done which becomes increasingly likely in three weeks.

[Blinhart]

Any update on this supposed future trough that is suppose to be showing up in the next 48 or so hours??? What is the current projections of the shear along the upper GoM for the rest of the week?

[tolakram]

Any update on this supposed future trough that is suppose to be showing up in the next 48 or so hours??? What is the current projections of the shear along the upper GoM for the rest of the week?

This question is best for the models thread, not the indicators.

[Blinhart]

Any update on this supposed future trough that is suppose to be showing up in the next 48 or so hours??? What is the current projections of the shear along the upper GoM for the rest of the week?

This question is best for the models thread, not the indicators.

I didn't want to cause to much interruptions in the arguments. LMAO

[AnnularCane]

I feel like it's safe to say we won't see another season like 2020 in most of our lifetimes. Maybe most individual storms weren't superman storms, but the season is without compare. We'll get our record setting US landfall - 10 - later this week.

Consider back to before Laura and before Sally (and now before Delta). Cold front comes down with a big cold high behind it. Hurricanes have been the response out of the tropics. I don't even think we're finished up with the pattern yet. Maybe Delta takes the majority of the rest of the energy out of the Gulf, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more fronts come down with responses in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic. Easy shot at another landfall after Delta and certainly there should be some threat level for the islands and US East Coast before October is done. Still no sign of MJO going into super favorable as it's still stuck in Phase 5. BUT, several of the models rotate it to 6 and 7 in the next week or so. If it continues around the grid to 8-1-2-3, expect another burst of multiple (2, 3 or 4) systems yet to happen.

We said this about 2005 and look what happened!

Never say never in the Tropics!

I never thought I'd see the Greek alphabet again.

[northjaxpro]

I feel like it's safe to say we won't see another season like 2020 in most of our lifetimes. Maybe most individual storms weren't superman storms, but the season is without compare. We'll get our record setting US landfall - 10 - later this week.

Consider back to before Laura and before Sally (and now before Delta). Cold front comes down with a big cold high behind it. Hurricanes have been the response out of the tropics. I don't even think we're finished up with the pattern yet. Maybe Delta takes the majority of the rest of the energy out of the Gulf, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more fronts come down with responses in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic. Easy shot at another landfall after Delta and certainly there should be some threat level for the islands and US East Coast before October is done. Still no sign of MJO going into super favorable as it's still stuck in Phase 5. BUT, several of the models rotate it to 6 and 7 in the next week or so. If it continues around the grid to 8-1-2-3, expect another burst of multiple (2, 3 or 4) systems yet to happen.

We said this about 2005 and look what happened!

Never say never in the Tropics!

AHH, you guys are learning from my mantra!! NEVER say NEVER in the tropics , and weather in general overall, and in every day life!!!

I am proud of you guys for listening to me out there!!

[Kingarabian]

Season will likely continue well into November with the latest EPS indicating activity showing anomalous rising air near the MDR.

[gatorcane]

Despite this record-breaking season, there is noticeable lack of anything significant so far in the area I circled which ironically is probably the most vulnerable to hurricanes which includes peninsula Florida, the islands and the area south of Bermuda in the SW Atlantic. Isaias and Laura did move through this area but were not high impact wind storms: