ATL: DELTA - Models

[supercane4867]

Both HMON and HWRF re-intensify Delta into a large and powerful major hurricane in the Western Gulf after hitting Yucatan.

[TallahasseeMan]

HWRF is back to showing an intense hurricane.

30mb difference in intensity between 12z and 18z

[ColdMiser123]

Important to keep in mind that with a stronger system, like there is on the HMON, there is also less weakening from peak intensity to landfall due to a more robust vortex overall. Landfall this run is at 948 mb, only 6 mb higher from peak intensity.

A potential major hurricane landfall is absolutely on the table with this.

[BigB0882]

HWRF is back to showing an intense hurricane.

30mb difference in intensity between 12z and 18z

Is landfall still the same or has it shifted also? And is intensity at landfall (US) different than before. I think that’s the most important thing to watch for.

[PTrackerLA]

18z HWRF down to 932mb at 78hrs, simulated IR is terrifying

[cajungal]

18z HWRF down to 932mb at 78hrs, simulated IR is terrifying

https://i.imgur.com/xBNXWsM.png

Getting very nervous here in Thibodaux

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

18z HWRF down to 932mb at 78hrs, simulated IR is terrifying

https://i.imgur.com/xBNXWsM.png

[supercane4867]

The surge impact of this HWRF run would dwarf Laura.

[Frank P]

HMON showing SELA no loving tonight.. on the cusp of a Cat 4
https://imgur.com/a/PbSp7gD

[Steve]

18z HWRF down to 932mb at 78hrs, simulated IR is terrifying

https://i.imgur.com/xBNXWsM.png

Getting very nervous here in Thibodaux

Yeah. I don’t usually like HMON and HWRF intensity 4+ days out. But I really don’t like the right side of 930’s and 940’s. We leave for vacation on Sunday which would give us a couple days to decompress from a fading, fast moving Cat 1 blowing by. A 3 or 4 slightly weakening at landfall is another game altogether. I don’t know.

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF showing signs of shear north of 26 with a turn to the NNE landfall probably cat 2ish.

[cajungal]

18z HWRF down to 932mb at 78hrs, simulated IR is terrifying

https://i.imgur.com/xBNXWsM.png

Getting very nervous here in Thibodaux

Yeah. I don’t usually like HMON and HWRF intensity 4+ days out. But I really don’t like the right side of 930’s and 940’s. We leave for vacation on Sunday which would give us a couple days to decompress from a fading, fast moving Cat 1 blowing by. A 3 or 4 slightly weakening at landfall is another game altogether. I don’t know.

We been so lucky here in Houma/Thibodaux. I remember going through Andrew. And it was scariest night of my life. I left for Gustav. Had no power for 11 days but we thankfully escaped major damage.

[PTrackerLA]

It almost seems as that land interaction with the Yucatan on these runs causes a larger storm. In the HWRF scenario with Delta a major hurricane the entire length of the GOM the surge would be much more widespread than with Laura.

18z HWRF looks to be heading to Iberia Parish/St Mary parish this run. At least it's weakening slightly 948mb at 93 hrs

[aspen]

The HWRF is back to its old self with a low 940s/high 930s Cat 4 in the Gulf in 3 days, after a pinhole scrape of the Yucutan.

[toad strangler]

18z HWRF down to 932mb at 78hrs, simulated IR is terrifying

https://i.imgur.com/xBNXWsM.png

HWRF eye candy rarely fails to deliver. THis model does take Delta down a couple notches before landfall.

[Frank P]

Yeah I would expect it to bring in a massive surge!

[BobHarlem]

That 935mb over Cozumel looks like it may happen, and Cancun would wind up in the right front quad... yikes for them.

[chaser1]

Welcome to the future 2020 highlight reel.

[stormlover2013]

18z euro another shift west

[catskillfire51]

Seems like most models make the turn North/NE at 92W