ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallahasseeMan]

Convection has really taken off around the center in the last few frames.

[ElectricStorm]

New VDM confirms a closed eyewall with Delta. Pressure down to 981 mb.

And it's off to the races

[edu2703]

I find it interesting that recon has not yet found winds to support hurricane intensity despite the continuous pressure drops.

But I think NHC will be showing Hurricane Delta at 8PM or 11PM advisory despite that or if the next recon plane finds it, which doesn't look like it will be difficult.

[Keldeo1997]

Recon has a elliptical eye

[Visioen]

I can't see anything with all that pink.

[3090]

I find it interesting that recon has not yet found winds to support hurricane intensity despite the continuous pressure drops.

But I think NHC will be showing Hurricane Delta at 8PM or 11PM advisory despite that or if the next recon plane finds it, which doesn't look like it will be difficult.

Always a lag in the wind speed. It is like a turbocharger. It has to wind up, before the power kicks in, so to speak.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1313259852991430658

[ElectricStorm]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1313259852991430658

I would argue cat 5 is very possible... And I don't say that about a whole lot of storms... especially when they're not even officially a hurricane yet

[LarryWx]

Current SSTs for the Gulf and W Caribbean: per the progged path, the waters Delta will be crossing won't be getting below 29 C/84 F for another 72 hours or so.



Normals for Oct: Based on this, the W Car and S Gulf are a good 1C/2 F or so warmer than normal whereas the N Gulf is near normal vs the much near record warmth for early Oct just preceding Michael in 2018:

[DestinHurricane]

...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA
HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...

[aspen]

Hello Hurricane Delta.

[wx98]

Here we go:

...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...
8:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 5
Location: 16.5°N 79.6°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[galaxy401]

Little surprised they upgraded it but with the fast pressure drops, Delta was going to be a hurricane shortly anyways.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Delta... Might be one we remember for a long time

[GCANE]

Looks a little north of forecast track.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Have a feeling tonight or tomorrow is going to be wild as far as intensification goes.

[Kazmit]

According to the definition of RI as a 30kt increase in 12 hours, Delta has already been RI'ing since it was only named this morning.

[aspen]

I’m going to go bold and predict that Delta peaks around 905 mbar by tomorrow night. Based on how poorly my previous predictions went, either this estimate is too much, or it could be too high.

[supercane4867]

[Nuno]

Anybody else getting Wilma vibes?

Absolutely. I don't think sub 920mb is out of the question. Hopefully it doesn't go full Wilma...