ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FixySLN]

I don't understand what's pulling it West? Is it supposed to be half-dead Gamma?

[DestinHurricane]

I don't understand what's pulling it West? Is it supposed to be half-dead Gamma?

Pretty much, yes. I'm expecting more east shifts once models see gamma is moving south and will die over Yucatan.

[Ubuntwo]

I don't understand what's pulling it West? Is it supposed to be half-dead Gamma?

From the NHC:

Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening,
and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is
expected over the next couple of days.

[GCANE]

Radial fingers on IR. Hardly ever see that. Very intense convection.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like AF plane is about to go in for the first pass pretty soon

[aspen]

I’ve had a sense of dread/anticipation for when Delta pops that one big hot tower that becomes a large CDO, signaling the start of ERI into a major, similar to what happened with Sally.

[ConvergenceZone]

They could also retire the storm as Delta2020....and keep Delta for future storms and add the year if they need to be retired.

Have they retired systems before due to the significant impact they had in Mexico, because I think that's what we are talking about right? Due to the potential significant impact in Mexico?
I'm sure there have been systems retired that have hit Mexico, but I I just can't remember which one/s

Mexico and the United States

Way way to early to even think about that. Mexico I can see, but not the USA mainland at this point. Too many factors to potentially weaken this later in forecast period..........For something to be retired, the results have to be catastrophic, which has been the case on every retired system...... ... Destin, just read what MET WXMAN said earlier as to why He thinks this may just be a minimal hurricane at landfall. He's a meteorologist that studies this stuff for a living. So he obviously knows his stuff....

[ElectricStorm]

Have they retired systems before due to the significant impact they had in Mexico, because I think that's what we are talking about right? Due to the potential significant impact in Mexico?
I'm sure there have been systems retired that have hit Mexico, but I I just can't remember which one/s

Mexico and the United States

Way way to early to even think about that. Mexico I can see, but not the USA mainland at this point. Too many factors to potentially weaken this later in forecast period..........For something to be retired, the results have to be catastrophic, which has been the case on every retired system...... ... Destin, just read what MET WXMAN said earlier as to why He thinks this may just be a minimal hurricane at landfall. He's a meteorologist that studies this stuff for a living. So he obviously knows his stuff....

Well the NHC has it as a Cat 2 coming in. And no offense to wxman as I believe he is a great met, but the NHC are the experts on these and it's best to follow them. I would not count on this weakening all the way down to minimal cat 1. As they say, prepare for the worst and hope for best

[Blinhart]

Have they retired systems before due to the significant impact they had in Mexico, because I think that's what we are talking about right? Due to the potential significant impact in Mexico?
I'm sure there have been systems retired that have hit Mexico, but I I just can't remember which one/s

Mexico and the United States

Way way to early to even think about that. Mexico I can see, but not the USA mainland at this point. Too many factors to potentially weaken this later in forecast period..........For something to be retired, the results have to be catastrophic, which has been the case on every retired system...... ... Destin, just read what MET WXMAN said earlier as to why He thinks this may just be a minimal hurricane at landfall. He's a meteorologist that studies this stuff for a living. So he obviously knows his stuff....

I don't see anyway that this will be just a minimal Hurricane at Landfall on the Northern Gulf Coast. This thing might be a Cat 5 when it skirts across the Yucatan, and might weaken a little but will strengthen right back with maybe a larger wind field, and might not weaken that much until right before landfall, and by then it would of already had reached max power and the waves and surge will not have time to go down as fast as the storms strength does, therefore causing catastrophic damage.

[3090]

I don't understand what's pulling it West? Is it supposed to be half-dead Gamma?

Pretty much, yes. I'm expecting more east shifts once models see gamma is moving south and will die over Yucatan.

Has nothing to do with Gamma long term. Look at the high pressure building west over Florida for the long term forecast track.

[DestinHurricane]

I don't understand what's pulling it West? Is it supposed to be half-dead Gamma?

Pretty much, yes. I'm expecting more east shifts once models see gamma is moving south and will die over Yucatan.

Has nothing to do with Gamma long term. Look at the high pressure building west over Florida for the long term forecast track.

Yes it does because it speeds delta up and affects where the turn happens.

[Aric Dunn]

[Blinhart]

Pretty much, yes. I'm expecting more east shifts once models see gamma is moving south and will die over Yucatan.

Has nothing to do with Gamma long term. Look at the high pressure building west over Florida for the long term forecast track.

Yes it does because it speeds delta up and affects where the turn happens.

That's not what the experts at the NHC are saying.

[supercane4867]

CDO is becoming more circular by the minute. Eyewall on Cayman radar has also intensified

[Blinhart]

Looking at the RECON Thread, the TS strength winds have expanded out a good bit, so this storm is expanding as we speak.

[Blinhart]

CDO is becoming more circular by the minute. Eyewall on Cayman radar has also intensified

https://i.imgur.com/QGx032o.gif

Shouldn't be long until we see the Pinhole Eye coming out in the next 12 or so hours.

[aspen]

FL and SFMR winds are both up to 70 kt on the NE side. Looks like winds are catching up to the massive pressure drops from this afternoon.

[edu2703]

No change on pressure, but wind speed has increased. Around 70-75 kts

[St0rmTh0r]

This was barely a depression 24 hours ago now it's a strengthening hurricane. The environment is very very favorable right now.

[wx98]

That first pass supports 70 kt/80 mph.