ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

I've heard of the old rule that a ridge expected to erode with a trough swinging through is usually under estimated by models and vice versa with an expected building ridge. So I'm thinking the models will come back eastward in this scenario, how much is the million dollar question.

Gamma is quite a bit slower than today's models suggested. If it's slower the turn will occur farther to the E. Also like you said the ridge will probably break down more than expected. I think it will shift quite a bit east but as you said remains to be seen exactly how much. I'd say anywhere from Morgan City to Panama City Florida, which is a wide range.

Whereas Levi isn't "expecting" any significant eastward shifts as of yet, he left open some chance for that mainly if Delta were to slow down more than expected while hanging out near Gamma. He said it then may sling-shot more NE out of the W GOM rather than N to NNE because of the trough picking it up further south due to the delay. IF that were to occur, I'd think its chances of coming in as a major cane wouldn't be as high vs if it hits LA. Also, perhaps hanging out longer would induce some weakening due to upwelling. That being said, this doesn't need to be a major H to have major impacts even far inland as Sally can attest to.

T this point, there have been SW shifts from the progged track that have lead to landfall a good bit further west than what models showed just 24 hours ago.

[FixySLN]

I've heard of the old rule that a ridge expected to erode with a trough swinging through is usually under estimated by models and vice versa with an expected building ridge. So I'm thinking the models will come back eastward in this scenario, how much is the million dollar question.

Gamma is quite a bit slower than today's models suggested. If it's slower the turn will occur farther to the E. Also like you said the ridge will probably break down more than expected. I think it will shift quite a bit east but as you said remains to be seen exactly how much. I'd say anywhere from Morgan City to Panama City Florida, which is a wide range.

You two are contrarian to the pro-mets and the data relative to the building ridge. Not only that, the latest EURO model, has shifted pretty significantly west. So unless you have some sound weather data the pros do not have, you can forget about any trends to the east for the immediate future/next 48 hours. It is going to follow the southern periphery of the ridge all the way into the CGOM. It will then slow a bit and take a turn to the NW, then N, then NNE once it makes landfall. The only thing in question is, where along the coast of Louisiana does it make landfall? I am thinking central, south of Lafayette.

Did you tell the NHC? They could shrink the cone quite a bit with that information.

[DestinHurricane]

I've heard of the old rule that a ridge expected to erode with a trough swinging through is usually under estimated by models and vice versa with an expected building ridge. So I'm thinking the models will come back eastward in this scenario, how much is the million dollar question.

Gamma is quite a bit slower than today's models suggested. If it's slower the turn will occur farther to the E. Also like you said the ridge will probably break down more than expected. I think it will shift quite a bit east but as you said remains to be seen exactly how much. I'd say anywhere from Morgan City to Panama City Florida, which is a wide range.

You two are contrarian to the pro-mets and the data relative to the building ridge. Not only that, the latest EURO model, has shifted pretty significantly west. So unless you have some sound weather data the pros do not have, you can forget about any trends to the east for the immediate future/next 48 hours. It is going to follow the southern periphery of the ridge all the way into the CGOM. It will then slow a bit and take a turn to the NW, then N, then NNE once it makes landfall. The only thing in question is, where along the coast of Louisiana does it make landfall? I am thinking central, south of Lafayette.

It's already much slower than today's models had so models are already wrong. Levi actually said shifts east are quite possible and he is a pro. The NHC cone extends well into the panhandle.

[St0rmTh0r]

https://i.imgur.com/AYIBCOR.gif

You can see the storm growing more intense by the hour lots of deep red and grey

[Steve]

I've heard of the old rule that a ridge expected to erode with a trough swinging through is usually under estimated by models and vice versa with an expected building ridge. So I'm thinking the models will come back eastward in this scenario, how much is the million dollar question.

Gamma is quite a bit slower than today's models suggested. If it's slower the turn will occur farther to the E. Also like you said the ridge will probably break down more than expected. I think it will shift quite a bit east but as you said remains to be seen exactly how much. I'd say anywhere from Morgan City to Panama City Florida, which is a wide range.

You two are contrarian to the pro-mets and the data relative to the building ridge. Not only that, the latest EURO model, has shifted pretty significantly west. So unless you have some sound weather data the pros do not have, you can forget about any trends to the east for the immediate future/next 48 hours. It is going to follow the southern periphery of the ridge all the way into the CGOM. It will then slow a bit and take a turn to the NW, then N, then NNE once it makes landfall. The only thing in question is, where along the coast of Louisiana does it make landfall? I am thinking central, south of Lafayette.

FWIW, most of the models turn it NNE before landfall. Check out SFWMD or the early cycle tracks on the models thread that i just posted (the link to it anyway).

[FixySLN]

11 PM NHC Update. Cone remains on the Northern gulf side of things. Maybe the tiniest shift east leaving the TX border barely within the cone. I can't tell, my eyes are awful.

[Steve]

11 PM NHC Update. Cone remains on the Northern gulf side of things. Maybe the tiniest shift east leaving the TX border barely within the cone. I can't tell, my eyes are awful.

https://i.imgur.com/fXlpSl4.png

Cone maybe but they moved the track slightly west (see below). They currently take it to 91.7W in the discussion plots.

and the NHC track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Waiting on the late runs tonight since much more data will be in them before any bigger shifts with the 4am update

[weathaguyry]

Some seriously high octane fuel being injected into Delta thanks to the toasty Caribbean waters. The NHC just declared the formation of TD 26 at 11PM yestderday, and now we have a rapidly strengthening 80mph Hurricane, curious what we'll see another 24 hours from now

[DestinHurricane]

11 PM NHC Update. Cone remains on the Northern gulf side of things. Maybe the tiniest shift east leaving the TX border barely within the cone. I can't tell, my eyes are awful.

https://i.imgur.com/fXlpSl4.png

Cone maybe but they moved the track slightly west (see below). They currently take it to 91.7W in the discussion plots.

and the NHC track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one.

I think it's a typo. The last track went west of lake ponchatrain and the new one goes right on the edge. Maybe a 10 mile shift.

[St0rmTh0r]

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2020278ca.jpg

Some seriously high octane fuel being injected into Delta thanks to the toasty Caribbean waters. The NHC just declared the formation of TD 26 at 11PM yestderday, and now we have a rapidly strengthening 80mph Hurricane, curious what we'll see another 24 hours from now

Looking at latest IR it definitely looks like its tapping into that energy convection going off like a bomb and Expanding!

[ElectricStorm]

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2020278ca.jpg

Some seriously high octane fuel being injected into Delta thanks to the toasty Caribbean waters. The NHC just declared the formation of TD 26 at 11PM yestderday, and now we have a rapidly strengthening 80mph Hurricane, curious what we'll see another 24 hours from now

It will most definitely be a major unless it has some serious structural issues, which I doubt happens given the extremely favorable conditions its got right now.

[ElectricStorm]

Anyone in Cancun needs to get the heck out of there if they can. They certainly don't want to messing with a storm like this.

[edu2703]

Anyone in Cancun needs to get the heck out of there if they can. They certainly don't want to messing with a storm like this.

I saw reports that panic buying has already started there. Delta could be the strongest hurricane to pass close to Cancún since Wilma.

[Steve]

11 PM NHC Update. Cone remains on the Northern gulf side of things. Maybe the tiniest shift east leaving the TX border barely within the cone. I can't tell, my eyes are awful.

https://i.imgur.com/fXlpSl4.png

Cone maybe but they moved the track slightly west (see below). They currently take it to 91.7W in the discussion plots.

and the NHC track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one.

I think it's a typo. The last track went west of lake ponchatrain and the new one goes right on the edge. Maybe a 10 mile shift.

The Lake is pretty far inland though on its western side (not really because of coastal erosion but it’s inland on the maps)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR 84 knots uncontaminated, 90 knots contaminated.

[wx98]

That pass showed it either holding station or very slightly intensifying. Extrapolated pressure is a bit lower. FL winds about the same. There is an unflagged ~85 kt SFMR but I doubt that is accurate.

[FLpanhandle91]

032300 1641N 08009W 6953 02999 9861 +106 +106 237051 062 084 049 02

[ElectricStorm]

That pass showed it either holding station or very slightly intensifying. Extrapolated pressure is a bit lower. FL winds about the same. There is an unflagged ~85 kt SFMR but I doubt that is accurate.

No way that 85kt SFMR is accurate... yet, it'll get there tomorrow, just not quite yet.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2020278ca.jpg

Some seriously high octane fuel being injected into Delta thanks to the toasty Caribbean waters. The NHC just declared the formation of TD 26 at 11PM yestderday, and now we have a rapidly strengthening 80mph Hurricane, curious what we'll see another 24 hours from now

I dont even think we need 24 hrs to watch what happens, just the 8-10hr over night period is a decent amount of time