ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

If Delta intensifies the same amount in the next 24 hours as it did today, we could be looking at a high Cat 3/Low 4 tomorrow evening with several more hours over water after that before it reaches the Yucatan and the Cancun area...

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems to me this is going to miss the Yucatan to the east.

[Blinhart]

If Delta intensifies the same amount in the next 24 hours as it did today, we could be looking at a high Cat 3/Low 4 tomorrow evening with several more hours over water after that before it reaches the Yucatan and the Cancun area...

Well technically it has increased 50 MPH in the last 24 hours, if it does that in the next 24 hours (which shouldn't be a problem), you are talking at Hurricane with 130 MPH winds, I think by this time tomorrow we might be talking about a Borderline Cat 4/5 if not a Cat 5 that is still strengthening and like you said have probably another 12 hours before the little bit of land interaction.

[ElectricStorm]

If Delta intensifies the same amount in the next 24 hours as it did today, we could be looking at a high Cat 3/Low 4 tomorrow evening with several more hours over water after that before it reaches the Yucatan and the Cancun area...

Well technically it has increased 50 MPH in the last 24 hours, if it does that in the next 24 hours (which shouldn't be a problem), you are talking at Hurricane with 130 MPH winds, I think by this time tomorrow we might be talking about a Borderline Cat 4/5 if not a Cat 5 that is still strengthening and like you said have probably another 12 hours before the little bit of land interaction.

Yep, intensification looks to be slowing down for the moment but I assume it will pick back up into RI mode in a few hours. My personal prediction is High 4/Low 5 peak before its closest pass to the Yucatan. Definitely the most bullish I've been on an Atlantic storm this early in the storm's life... probably ever in the few years I've tracked storms.

[tiger_deF]

Personally I think it has still been intensifying in a structural sense, I was feeling somewhat bearish 2 hours ago but the convection and banding has improved markedly just in the last hour. I think we are about to see history

[Highteeld]

The CDO is expanding. Still intensifying

[Keldeo1997]

Eyedrop supports 974MB

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely still deepening based on that dropsonde. Should be a Cat 2 by the morning.

[CrazyC83]

Out of respect of the higher SFMR readings and pressure drop, I would go with an intensity of 75 kt.

[Blinhart]

Out of respect of the higher SFMR readings and pressure drop, I would go with an intensity of 75 kt.

By the time the 1 am (Central time) Advisory comes out, they will go with what Recon is showing, and if Recon is done by then, they will figure by the last of Recon, and the difference they see by Radar, Satellite, and possibly ship reports.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah this here is some insane convection. Big yikes when that eye pops out...

[shansgonefishin]

http://www.weather.gov.ky/radar_images/radar/400km_ppi.gif

[Keldeo1997]

[Steve]

^^ Officially got another hurricane west of 80W. I believe that Delta will be the storm to set the US record for most US landfalls in a season. It probably breaks or close to breaks the record for named storms in the Gulf. It's certainly west of 85W, and if it gets past 90W (which it looks like it will as of now), it will join rare if any seasons with number named storms getting past 90 in a season.

[cheezyWXguy]

I have a feeling this is really going to start shooting up in the few hours, as if it hasn’t been already most of today. Systems that have a very deep persistent blob of convection on their periphery tend to slow down a bit in their intensification when this exists. Recently, I am noticing that this blob to the south is starting move closer to Delta, and is likely in the process of being absorbed. Once that happens, watch out.

[St0rmTh0r]

Yeah this here is some insane convection. Big yikes when that eye pops out...
https://i.imgur.com/N7Qdoeu.gif

Notice the dark pink convection in the center rotating rapidly around the COC. Getting ready to go major. This is going to pack a devastating punch to Cancun anyone there needs to evacuate.

[FLpanhandle91]

Possible that the large convective feature to Delta's south could limit some of the energy it has to work with currently. I believe that there is an offshore flow of destabilized air coming off of the mountains of Costa Rica that is hitting the the warm waters and building that consistent convection.

[cheezyWXguy]

Warm spot in the last few frames of rapidscan IR may be showing the eye trying to come out

[tiger_deF]

Warm spot in the last few frames of rapidscan IR may be showing the eye trying to come out

Just beat me to it

[St0rmTh0r]

Possible that the large convective feature to Delta's south could limit some of the energy it has to work with currently. I believe that there is an offshore flow of destabilized air coming off of the mountains of Costa Rica that is hitting the the warm waters and building that consistent convection.

Looks like its pumping energy into the storm to me. COC is the dominant feature