ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

HWRF is still persistent in Delta becoming a Cat 4 later today, we shall see but I would not doubt it.

[tolakram]

Live IR loop. No eye visible yet, as far as I can tell. Convection continues to build and obscure the center.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_ircm/meso1_60.html

[HurricaneEnzo]

If it can build its CDO on it's Western half so it is more symmetric look out. Might end up with a top 10 system at this rate.

[NDG]

Recent hot tower firing in the southern eyewall will likely keep the eye obscured for a bit longer.

With an eye only 8 nautical mile wide this morning it will be tough to clear out, IMO.

[aspen]

Kermit is at operational altitude.

[St0rmTh0r]

Extreme convection firing in the eyewall now rotating rapidly as CDO continues to expand expect major hurricane cat 4 in 6 hours

[Aric Dunn]

Well Gammas Circulation has not died as much over land as it should have...and the Mid level reflection still looks to be hanging enough to help accelerate Delta for now.

Models still have a lot of adjusting to do.

[N2FSU]

Well Gammas Circulation has not died as much over land as it should have...and the Mid level reflection still looks to be hanging enough to help accelerate Delta for now.

Models still have a lot of adjusting to do.

What implication does that have on the track?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[St0rmTh0r]

Well Gammas Circulation has not died as much over land as it should have...and the Mid level reflection still looks to be hanging enough to help accelerate Delta for now.

Models still have a lot of adjusting to do.

Will it push it NE? Will it be absorbed?

[Do_For_Love]

The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the past 24 hours.

Wow. Does that quality as "explosive" intensification?

[Aric Dunn]

Well Gammas Circulation has not died as much over land as it should have...and the Mid level reflection still looks to be hanging enough to help accelerate Delta for now.

Models still have a lot of adjusting to do.

What implication does that have on the track?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

well right now its inline with the models where Gamma plays a bigger role.

yesterday it appeared Gamma... from it moving over land that it would weaken even more and get strung out quicker having less of an effect.

a weaker gamma in the mid levels would let Delta move slower which would allow the NE turn to happen earlier..

Still really need to watch that though and what happens to Gamma today.

[GCANE]

Eye appears to be bigger.
Theta-e ridge readjusting.
Further intensification likely.

Maximum enthalpy flux from the sea surface to the boundary layer will occur in about 24 hrs.
HWRF has it punching thru the Tropopause then.
Absolutely insane. Likely to go sub 900mb.

[Dean4Storms]

Well Gammas Circulation has not died as much over land as it should have...and the Mid level reflection still looks to be hanging enough to help accelerate Delta for now.

Models still have a lot of adjusting to do.

What implication does that have on the track?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

well right now its inline with the models where Gamma plays a bigger role.

yesterday it appeared Gamma... from it moving over land that it would weaken even more and get strung out quicker having less of an effect.

a weaker gamma in the mid levels would let Delta move slower which would allow the NE turn to happen earlier..

Still really need to watch that though and what happens to Gamma today.

Unless convection really fires I don’t see how much mid level effect Gamma would have.

[kevin]

Absolutely insane. Likely to go sub 900mb.

That's not something you here every day. Recon is entering the storm as we speak btw. We should get a new center pass soon.

[GCANE]

The big feeder band is taking shape now.
High TPW air converged along the cold front is being funneled across the Yucatan by Gamma.
The deeper Delta's pressure goes, the more the infeed.
A runaway feedback loop.

[kevin]

Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure 959.4 mbar! (http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=NOAA2&product_page=hdob)

[Aric Dunn]

What implication does that have on the track?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

well right now its inline with the models where Gamma plays a bigger role.

yesterday it appeared Gamma... from it moving over land that it would weaken even more and get strung out quicker having less of an effect.

a weaker gamma in the mid levels would let Delta move slower which would allow the NE turn to happen earlier..

Still really need to watch that though and what happens to Gamma today.

Unless convection really fires I don’t see how much mid level effect Gamma would have.

The mid level and low level structure remain,. every last model shows the bend in the track and acceleration from Gammas interaction. the interaction is enough ( according to the models) to speed Delta up even more allowing to it get farther west before the trough.

So if Gamma gets strung out and weakens faster ... then the slower Delta will move.. super simple.

The ridge alone is not deep enough to accelerate delta to some of the speeds the models are showing tomorrow. The combo between Gamma and the high can.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Down to 959mb, winds up to ~95 knots per recon.

[northjaxpro]

A very impressive tropical cyclone which did what I feared from day one.

I think it will attain Cat 4 status, and even with cooler ssts in the Northern GOM which will weaken it some, it still I think wiill be at least a strong Cat 2 at landfall by Friday evening on the Louisiana coast.

[aspen]

959 mbar extrap!