ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Give it one more hour and this might be a major hurricane already.

[Kazmit]

Woah, a 9mb drop.

[Nuno]

Delta has the look of a typically rapidly intensifying WPAC storm. Not in size, but it's core is so tight and compact. I thought 920ish mb yesterday, I might have to revise that downwards.

[wx98]

Almost a Cat 3...

[us89]

Down to 959mb, winds up to ~95 knots per recon.

Yep, 93 kt SFMR unflagged. Should see a bump to 95 kt with the intermediate.

[GCANE]

17.8N 82.0W looks on track

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Sunrise over Delta.

[Nimbus]

What implication does that have on the track?


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well right now its inline with the models where Gamma plays a bigger role.

yesterday it appeared Gamma... from it moving over land that it would weaken even more and get strung out quicker having less of an effect.

a weaker gamma in the mid levels would let Delta move slower which would allow the NE turn to happen earlier..

Still really need to watch that though and what happens to Gamma today.

Unless convection really fires I don’t see how much mid level effect Gamma would have.

06Z HWRF forecasts the Fujiwara from Gamma will pull Delta inland along the north shore of the Yucatan for a few hours longer than previous run. Could be overdone previous run had less Fuji with a 927mb Delta.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

8:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 6
Location: 17.8°N 82.0°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[Nuno]

We know the WMO has said Greek names won't be retired, but they're gonna have to put that to a real test with Delta it appears.

And what gets me about that is that Delta is the one Greek letter that doubles as an actual name (in the Atlantic basin) and sounds like an old school hurricane name anyway.

Right, like one of those 1950s names like "Dog" and "Easy"

I predicted yesterday Delta will force the WMO to abandon Greek names going forward, so while not "officially" retiring Delta, it would be de-facto retired.

[cheezyWXguy]

Here we go, it looks like. And a band of -80C cloud temps has been wrapped nearly completely around the eye

[wx98]

Gone up 70 mph operationally in 24 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Nw quad
114430 1756N 08202W 6967 02984 9804 +139 +095 070088 091 070 002 00
114500 1755N 08200W 6949 02970 9756 +146 +098 069096 098 080 001 00
114530 1754N 08159W 6911 02959 9673 +167 +096 072092 098 091 001 00
114600 1752N 08159W 6947 02860 9618 +165 +104 072064 079 093 001 00


NE/east quad could easily be a Cat 3.

[kevin]

Using the 970.4 mbar pass at 07:56AM UTC, this has deepened 2.95 mbar/hour over the last 4 hours. Another 20 hours of similar (not even increasing) intensification could make it a sub-900 mb system.

[euro6208]

Delta has the look of a typically rapidly intensifying WPAC storm. Not in size, but it's core is so tight and compact. I thought 920ish mb yesterday, I might have to revise that downwards.

It does have the look but no recon so we don't know how strong they are. Recon leading all estimates. Sad.

[cheezyWXguy]

I noticed that the 959.4 extrap was under 56kt FL winds. Seems like 962mb in the advisory is a bit too high

[TallyTracker]

If Delta spends 60 hours+ as a major like the NHC is forecasting, the ACE will get a massive boost getting us very close to hyperactive levels.

[Do_For_Love]

Gone up 70 mph operationally in 24 hours.

That is insane

Edit: According to the wikipedia definition, that's double the strengthening criteria for rapid intensification.

[kevin]

If Delta spends 60 hours+ as a major like the NHC is forecasting, the ACE will get a massive boost getting us very close to hyperactive levels.

Does anyone know how much ACE Wilma generated?

[us89]

I noticed that the 959.4 extrap was under 56kt FL winds. Seems like 962mb in the advisory is a bit too high

31kt FL, 56kt SFMR it looks like.

We will see what the dropsonde says...