ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[p1nheadlarry]

Latest IR loop.

https://imgur.com/6F1ttjX

Looks pretty close to the latest HWRF sim

[MississippiWx]

Now that we're talking about ACE, does anyone have a link to a place where we can find the ACE of all or at least many storms? It will be interesting to compare Delta to other Caribbean cruisers like Wilma later on.

I've been working on this project. I have all the ibtracs uploaded to Google Sheets, and have created the ACE formula and a pivot table to look at each season/system. I haven't 100% confirmed every system is accurate (there was quite a bit of filtering work that went in to it), so let me know if anyone sees any errors.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

That is interesting, thank you.
People keep comparing this to 2005 but I just do not see the comparison.
Yes we got into the Greek names. But I think we are seeing and naming storms today that were barely a blip on the radar a decade ago. Look at the Ace for 2005 vs this year.

This isn’t the thread for this discussion, but just because a tropical cyclone is only 40mph doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be named. If it’s a dog, call it a dog.

Anyway, I am super concerned for Cancun. Let’s hope this storm can ease by to the north and east. Of course, that introduces a whole new problem for Gulf states.

[tailgater]

The land interaction when Delta hits the Yucatan will probably increase the wind field quite a bit.

Yes I forgot to mention that, the direction that Delta will be approaching will likely funnel surge waters into the tidal lakes north and west of NOLA. The speed of her approach will luckily reduce this from being the worst case scenario for Ascenion and Livingston parishes

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313483973922783232

[Steve]

Now that we're talking about ACE, does anyone have a link to a place where we can find the ACE of all or at least many storms? It will be interesting to compare Delta to other Caribbean cruisers like Wilma later on.

I've been working on this project. I have all the ibtracs uploaded to Google Sheets, and have created the ACE formula and a pivot table to look at each season/system. I haven't 100% confirmed every system is accurate (there was quite a bit of filtering work that went in to it), so let me know if anyone sees any errors.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

That is interesting, thank you.
People keep comparing this to 2005 but I just do not see the comparison.
Yes we got into the Greek names. But I think we are seeing and naming storms today that were barely a blip on the radar a decade ago. Look at the Ace for 2005 vs this year.

I don't agree with this point. There was only one storm (I think) that was upgraded post-season that year. Every storm this year except maybe 1 was deserving. It's a different year with different atmospheric conditions. 2020 will spin up more storms. 2005 had several really strong ones. They are what they are.

[South Texas Storms]

Will the front that's suppose to come through Houston come in time to spare us?

Yes, it's quite likely the system will remain well east of Houston. I'm not worried about significant impacts from it across TX.

[SunnyThoughts]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313483973922783232

From Galveston Tx, to Pensacola, Fla what a wide amount of coastline to be on alert...geeze.

[kevin]

100.1 kts estimated surface winds this pass, most certainly a cat 3 right now.

[wx98]

Should be a 105 kt Cat 3 based on that pass...

[tomatkins]

Now that we're talking about ACE, does anyone have a link to a place where we can find the ACE of all or at least many storms? It will be interesting to compare Delta to other Caribbean cruisers like Wilma later on.

I've been working on this project. I have all the ibtracs uploaded to Google Sheets, and have created the ACE formula and a pivot table to look at each season/system. I haven't 100% confirmed every system is accurate (there was quite a bit of filtering work that went in to it), so let me know if anyone sees any errors.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

That is interesting, thank you.
People keep comparing this to 2005 but I just do not see the comparison.
Yes we got into the Greek names. But I think we are seeing and naming storms today that were barely a blip on the radar a decade ago. Look at the Ace for 2005 vs this year.

I don't think the naming conventions are substantially different than they were in 2005. The difference is that 2005 had alot of majors early - not that it didnt have weak barely there storms.

Also of course - WIlma wouldn't form for another 9 days in 2005, and we had another major after that.

[FLpanhandle91]

141300 1809N 08235W 6919 02858 9587 +142 //// 051074 093 102 010 01

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like Delta is certainly a major hurricane based on that pass.

Also, is this really the right thread and time to be talking about ACE?

[TallyTracker]

https://i.imgur.com/2us9t3B.png

“This round of rapid intensification is brought to you by Delta Airlines...Fly Higher...” lol

[Red eye]

This is not looking good for my area. Starting preparations today but I feel a big sense of complacency around here regarding Delta. That will probably change after it strikes Cancun tonight.

I hear ya. I don't know if it is so much complacency as burn out. We are getting prepared ourselves, but Laura, Covid, School reopening, have really taken the wind out of our sails. Our family has been affected and has changed so much that we are really ready to get back to Normality.

It looks like the clean up will be in some different locations starting next week. Parts of Calcasieu, Cameron and Beauregard Parish are still not back to normal. No electricity, debris clean up etc....We will continue to pray for our State and Nation and those affected by these types of Natural Disasters. Pray that Delta falls to pieces. Learning how to love my neighbor as myself more so with each event.

Hopefully we don't make it to the Omega event this year I will be agreeing with the apocalypters....2020

[p1nheadlarry]

141300 1809N 08235W 6919 02858 9587 +142 //// 051074 093 102 010 01

I always mix them up, is it 93 kt at 958 hpa or 102 kt at 958 hpa (or am I still looking at the wrong part of the ticker)

[drezee]

Last pass supported Cat3 in SE and NW quads...symmetric

[stormlover2013]

sure does look like its going to hit more land instead of going through the channel but it could just be my eyes lol

[p1nheadlarry]

https://i.imgur.com/2us9t3B.png

“This round of rapid intensification is brought to you by Delta Airlines...Fly Higher...” lol

Got some John Mulaney vibes from the Delta jokes. Can't use them on the forum though.

[us89]

141300 1809N 08235W 6919 02858 9587 +142 //// 051074 093 102 010 01

I always mix them up, is it 93 kt at 958 hpa or 102 kt at 958 hpa

93 kt is the flight-level wind, 102 kt is SFMR