ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Hard to believe it took 12-13 years for Delta to happen. Unreal how bad the conditions have been in the W Carib for a long time now. The stars finally aligned though and Delta is taking full advantage.

[GCANE]

I posted this earlier today, but I think it bears repeating.
HWRF is forecasting this to punch thru the tropopause within 24 hrs.
Vertically stacked.
If holds true, will likely rank up there with the top WPAC monsters.
IMHO a better than 50/50 shot this goes sub 900 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/PHCqGcM.png

Why is it cut off at 100 hPa? Or is it just an illusion with all the packed isentropes where the stratosphere is.

Its hard to read but I believe the chart goes above 100 hPa.
The point is the tropopause can be considered the boundary of the blue and orange away from the warm core.
At the CoC, the warm core punches thru this.
Look at other time frames on HWRF and you'll see the warm-core is always below this boundary.

[Kazmit]

It's weird that we have a cat 4 storm with a perfect CDO but an eye that is so small and cloud filled. It's almost scarier looking because it's a sign that it is nowhere near leveling off in intensity. Once it clears out it's going to look insane.

[mrbagyo]

[ClarCari]

ughh...it’s almost in “that” spot of the WC (Hint: Go look at Wilma and Gilbert at their peak)...

[northjaxpro]

Eye is drying out. RH dropped to 68% from 89%.
Delta is on a highway to hell.

It's going to be absolutely insane once that eye fully clears out

Yes it will!

[Sanibel]

Classic Rapid Intensification in prime Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's)...Reminds me of Wilma...

It is a real relief to not be in the cone of this system...I don't like the look of the wave behind it...

[shansgonefishin]

Grand Cayman getting luckily With Cat 4 Delta passing to the SW the winds are gusting to 15mph. Cancun won’t be so lucky me thinks!!!

We are getting TS winds here as I type. Seas probably 8ft and rising. We have fortunately dodged a bullet today.

[SunnyThoughts]

Eye is drying out. RH dropped to 68% from 89%.
Delta is on a highway to hell.

It's going to be absolutely insane once that eye fully clears out

Yes it will!

Is it possible the eye may not clear out at all? I mean only 4 miles across...wouldn't take but a few clouds to continue to obscure it?

[plasticup]

It's going to be absolutely insane once that eye fully clears out

Yes it will!

Is it possible the eye may not clear out at all? I mean only 4 miles across...wouldn't take but a few clouds to continue to obscure it?

All evidence points towards the eye clearing.

[p1nheadlarry]

I posted this earlier today, but I think it bears repeating.
HWRF is forecasting this to punch thru the tropopause within 24 hrs.
Vertically stacked.
If holds true, will likely rank up there with the top WPAC monsters.
IMHO a better than 50/50 shot this goes sub 900 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/PHCqGcM.png

Why is it cut off at 100 hPa? Or is it just an illusion with all the packed isentropes where the stratosphere is.

Its hard to read but I believe the chart goes above 100 hPa.
The point is the tropopause can be considered the boundary of the blue and orange away from the warm core.
At the CoC, the warm core punches thru this.
Look at other time frames on HWRF and you'll see the warm-core is always below this boundary.

Ok, those are theta contours and just regular temperature anomalies. What I was getting at is that the theta contours look chopped off there but if the theta gradient quickly increases then there's your trope I guess. How high up would the coldest cloud tops be in this scenario then?

[galvestontx]

I have a vacation home on the west side of Cozumel, watching this very closely.

[GCANE]

You ain't seen nothing yet.
With the big drop in pressure, Delta is just beginning to suck all the moisture out of the GoM and EPAC.
This is the start of when the big-ass feeder bands kick in.
The acceleration of high TPW air from Gamma is like a turbocharger. Very unique setup.

[AutoPenalti]

You ain't seen nothing yet.
With the big drop in pressure, Delta is just beginning to suck all the moisture out of the GoM and EPAC.
This is the start of when the big-ass feeder bands kick in.
The acceleration of high TPW air from Gamma is like a turbocharger. Very unique setup.

https://i.imgur.com/ugN51Lw.png

Except you are also increasing shear from that outflow, is that not how it works?

[edu2703]

It's going to be absolutely insane once that eye fully clears out

Yes it will!

Is it possible the eye may not clear out at all? I mean only 4 miles across...wouldn't take but a few clouds to continue to obscure it?

Wilma had a 2 NM eye and perfect clear

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm literally watching this and comparing it to penny stock charts that sky rocket on insane volume.

From 1.00 to 8.00 in 5 minutes.

Maybe sub 900 isn't so far-fetched anymore.

As a penny stock trader myself, I know exactly what you mean Auto! Not sure I've seen a storm strengthen this quickly over 24 hours, a least since I've been following storms......This is quiet a site to behold! My thoughts and prayers go out to our friends in Cancun.

[northjaxpro]

Oh I think the eye will eventually clear out.

Once it does clear out the eye, we indeed may see it max out at Category 5 strength.

Delta just may end up being the monster of monster cyclones of 2020 when it is all said and done .

I just hope and pray people on the North Central Gulf Coast, especially the Louisiana coast, is taking every prepararion to evacuate as storm surge is really going ro be a major isdue, dependent upon Delta's angle of apprach to the coast on Friday night.

[p1nheadlarry]

 https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1313507432207806464

[SFLcane]

Classic Rapid Intensification in prime Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's)...Reminds me of Wilma...

It is a real relief to not be in the cone of this system...I don't like the look of the wave behind it...

That will not develop. I have posted the GEFS in the models thread which is rather aggressive with long range development near FL from the Caribbean or SW Atlantic.

[GCANE]

Why is it cut off at 100 hPa? Or is it just an illusion with all the packed isentropes where the stratosphere is.

Its hard to read but I believe the chart goes above 100 hPa.
The point is the tropopause can be considered the boundary of the blue and orange away from the warm core.
At the CoC, the warm core punches thru this.
Look at other time frames on HWRF and you'll see the warm-core is always below this boundary.

Ok, those are theta contours and just regular temperature anomalies. What I was getting at is that the theta contours look chopped off there but if the theta gradient quickly increases then there's your trope I guess. How high up would the coldest cloud tops be in this scenario then?

Not sure altitude heights vs geo-p but they would be in the stratosphere.